STAGE SET FOR PARLIAMENTARY SESSION ON SUSPENDING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BUCHAREST 000444

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/FO, EUR/NCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/18/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV RO
SUBJECT: STAGE SET FOR PARLIAMENTARY SESSION ON SUSPENDING
PRESIDENT BASESCU

REF: BUCHAREST 443

Classified By: Polcouns Theodore Tanoue for 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: The stage is set for joint session of
parliament April 19 to decide on the removal of President
Basescu. Ever the wily poker player, Basescu has gotten
momentum from a Constitutional Court advisory ruling that he
is not guilty of seriously infringing his constitutional
powers. His threat to resign from office and initiate a snap
Presidential election if suspended has also discomfited his
opponents, who are loath to engage in a one-on-one electoral
battle with the popular president. The Constitutional Court
ruling could offer political cover for Basescu's opponents to
back off from suspending the President, and some opposition
voices are now calling for restraint. However, the combative
Basescu appears intent on giving no quarter and has shown
little sign of backing off from a confrontation tomorrow.
End Summary.

Constitutional Court: Guilty of Rudeness, Not of Infringing
Constitution
-------------- --------------


2. (C) An April 17 Constitutional Court ruling sets the
stage for a dramatic confrontation on Thursday, April 19,
when Parliament meets in joint session to decide on the
suspension of President Traian Basescu. The carefully-worded
eighteen-page argumentation from the Court considers the
charges brought against the President by the Social
Democratic Party (PSD),Conservative Party (PC),and Greater
Romanian Party (PRM) in light of the Court's interpretation
of a proper role of the President. The ruling is for the
most part extremely favorable to President Basescu, as it
acknowledges that the President should to play an active role
in the political process, beyond merely a symbolic or
protocolary function. Secondly, the court notes that the
President's public utterances and opinions fall within the
purview of his freedom of expression and are also covered by
Presidential immunity. Moreover, actions taken by the
President to urge parliament and other institutions should be
seen as expressions of the President's opinions and
preferences, and not as "acts of decision." The court
concludes that, according to this interpretation, the
President is entitled within the framework of the Supreme
Defense Council (CSAT) to "request" changes of the leadership
of the intelligence services when such measures are
necessary.


3. (C) The Court ruling also notes that the President has
the power to decide on the "urgent and important" matters
upon which he can consult the government, as well as the
format in which such consultations take place. The court
further notes that the President's decisions about the form
of his participation in government meetings falls within the
scope of such consultations. (Note: This is a direct rebuke
of opposition charges that President Basescu, by
participating in cabinet meetings, violated the constitution
by "substituting" himself for the government.)


4. (C) The Court ruling also confirms that while the
Constitution bars a President from membership in any
political party, he is not prohibited from maintaining ties
with the party that endorsed him during the election, or with
any other political parties. The court also stipulates that
since the President is elected on the basis of a political
program and with the support of political parties, it is
obvious that a President should be allowed to continue to
have a dialogue with his former party or any other parties.
Again, this is a rebuke of opposition charges that the
President has violated his constitutional limits by acting in
a partisan or politicized manner.


5. (C) The Constitutional Court ruling does offer some
comfort to Basescu's opponents by underscoring its conviction
that the institutional relationship between political bodies
must take place in a "civilized" manner in order to secure
and promote the values guaranteed by the Constitution. It
also refers to a previous June 2006 ruling that the
constitutional roles of both the President and Prime Minister
obliges them to choose forms of expression that avoid
triggering conflicts of a constitutional nature between these
two state powers. The ruling also obliquely criticises the
President by noting that defamatory remarks and insults are
inimical to the "consolidation" of the constitutional order.
However, the court ruling concludes that President Basescu in
no way seriously infringed on the "constitutional order,"
which the court defined as "preventing the functioning of the
public authorities, suppressing or restraining citizens'
rights and freedoms, disrupting or changing the

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constitutional order, or any other acts which would or might
have similar effect". The Constitutional Court ruling is
advisory in nature, however, and Parliament has the power to
ignore the advice of the court if it chooses.

Basescu Threatens to Resign if Suspended
--------------


6. (C) President Basescu has raised the stakes for the joint
parliamentary session tomorrow by he will resign and trigger
early presidential elections "within five minutes" should the
Parliament vote to suspend him. Basescu also suggested that
his suspension would send negative signals abroad, result in
Romania facing lower investment ratings and diminished
credibility abroad. He also warned that "parliament should
avoid the risk of being defeated by the Romanian people" as
suspension would trigger an automatic referendum to dismiss
the president -- in effect, a confrontation between the
president and the parliament. Most observers believe that
the referendum would favor Basescu. (note: According to an
April 17 Data Media poll, which is linked to opposition
parties, 42 percent of Romanians would vote to keep Basescu
as president, while 31 percent would vote to remove him from
office, 17 percent are undecided, and the remainder plan to
abstain.)

Suspending the President: A Primer
--------------


7. (C) A simple majority vote from a joint session of
parliament (235 out of 469) is necessary to suspend the
president following publication of a non-binding ruling from
the Constitutional Court. Suspension is for a period of up
to 30 days. If the president resigns, snap presidential
elections must be called within 90 days. In either case, the
president of the Senate, Nicolae Vacaroiu (PSD) becomes
interim president unless he were to cede his place to Chamber
of Deputies President Bogdan Olteanu (PNL). An interim
President enjoys all of the competencies of a
regularly-elected one, bar the powers to: 1) address
parliament; 2) dissolve parliament after two attempts to
appoint a new government; 3) call a referendum. (Note: We
were told by senior PSD strategist Viorel Hrebenciuc that
Vacaroiu as interim President would keep most of the
Presidential Office staff intact, while bringing in some of
his own staffers. However, Hrebenciuc thought that Vacaroiu
would make some key reappointments, including replacing the
Intelligence chiefs and the Chief of the Defense Staff,
Admiral Marin.)

Opposition Loath to Challenge Basescu One-on-One
-------------- --------------


8. (C) President Basescu's threat to resign and force new
presidential elections has clearly discomfited his opponents.
In recent days, Basescu has argued that he and Prime Minister
Tariceanu represent "two different political visions".
Basescu said, "I want the modernization of the state; the PM
is dependent on the oligarchs' influence. There is no chance
to get along under these circumstances. I would never accept
perpetuating the oligarchic system generated by the
transition." Basescu held out two scenarios for Romania: "One
in which capitalism is under oligarchic non-democratic
control; the other where the market economy has correct and
transparent rules, which implies that the oligarchs are
removed from political decisions."


9. (C) So far, only extreme nationalist New Generation Party
(PNG) leader Gigi Becali and New Initiative Party (PIN)
leader Cozmin Gusa have announced they would compete for the
presidency against Basescu. The PSD and PNL have stated they
would put forward candidates, but neither PSD head Mircea
Geoana nor PNL President (and Prime Minister) Tariceanu would
want to engage Basescu in a mano-a-mano race for the
Presidency. Geoana, who has led parliament's attack on
Basescu, told the Ambassador April 13 that he was committed
to suspending Basescu. However, despite Geoana's insistence
on pressing forward with the vote, some recent press reports
suggest that a number of PSD old-timers, including former
President Iliescu and PSD Deputy Viorel Hrebenciuc, have
reservations about going beyond the original goal of removing
the Democrats (PD) from the government coalition, creating a
National Liberal (PNL) "super-minority" government and
handing Basescu a yellow-warning card.


10. (C) The Ambassador's April 12 meeting with Defense
Minister (and PNL Senator) Teodor Melescanu also elicited
signs of misgivings about pushing too far. Melescanu's
reservations were echoed by Transport Minister Ludovic Orban,
who while insisting that he remained one of the president's

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fiercest critics, remarked that he did not want the
suspension process to go forward. Orban argued what Romania
needed most was stability. Even the PRM's Vadim Tudor
briefly appeared to be withdrawing support for the
president's suspension when he said that he did not want to
remove Basescu only to replace him with a group of "wild"
crooks.

Comment:
--------------


11. (C) While Basescu's suspension appeared to be a sure
thing a couple of weeks ago, both the quiet post-Easter Week
break and hints of a moderate Constitutional Court decision
helped to cool off political tempers lately. Ironically,
even the cabinet reshuffle and the expulsion of the
Democratic Party from the ruling coalition may have taken
some of the day-to-day tensions out of governance. Above
all, Basescu's pledge to force early Presidential elections
if he were to be suspended has given his foes pause. That
said, Basescu has not yielded an inch to his enemies despite
back channel entreaties (reftel) from some PSD quarters that
he give them a face-saving soft landing from the suspension
scenario. Both emotions and cold political calculations will
be the order of the day during the joint parliamentary
session tomorrow. End Comment.
TAUBMAN