SPANISH FORMER PM TO CHAIR PANEL ON EU'S LONG-TERM

UNCLAS BRUSSELS 003514 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/ERA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL EUN SUBJECT: SPANISH FORMER PM TO CHAIR PANEL ON EU'S LONG-TERM CHALLENGES ¶1. SUMMARY. EU leaders on December 14 set up an independent panel headed by former Spanish PM Felipe Gonzalez to reflect on long-term challenges facing the EU until 2020-2030. Originally the brainchild of French President Sarkozy who wanted the EU to discuss its final borders (read: Turkey),the panel will mainly study slightly less controversial issues such as Europe's economy and social model, migration, energy, and climate change. Nevertheless, Sarkozy's wish was met by an oblique formula in the mandate for the panel to study "how the stability and prosperity of both the Union and the wider region might best be served.". The 12-member panel, to be vice-chaired by a former Latvian President and the Chair of Nokia, will start working in September 2008 (during the French Presidency) and report in June 2010, a timetable designed to avoid any interference with the Lisbon Treaty ratification process. END SUMMARY. ¶2. EU leaders in their December 14 European Council meeting agreed to set up an independent "Reflection Group" to be chaired by former Spanish PM Felipe Gonzalez "to help the Union anticipate and meet challenges more effectively" over the long-term (horizon 2020-2030). Gonzales will be assisted by former President of Latvia Vaira Vike-Freiberga and by Jorma Ollila, a chief executive of Finnish mobile phone manufacturer Nokia. Gonzalez appeared to emerge as a compromise candidate after France and the Baltics pushed Vike-Freiberga, while Finland lobbied for Ollila, also backed by the UK. The group will include "no more than nine (other) members" (expected to be drawn from various backgrounds -- academia, business, trade unions, etc.),who will be "selected from across the Union on the basis of merit." Gonzalez and his two vice-chairs will submit a list of names to be considered by the European Council during the French Presidency. To avoid any interference with the Lisbon Treaty ratification process, the leaders tasked the group to start working in September 2008 and to report its conclusions in June 2010. ¶3. The idea of such a panel - first called a group of "Wise Men," a term implying there would be no female members in it - originally came from French President Sarkozy, who wanted to engage the EU in a discussion of its final borders. Pro-enlargement countries (UK, Czech Republic and the Nordics) and the Commission were suspicious of a plan perceived as a way to stop the enlargement process and of shifting EU policy against Turkish membership. The current Portuguese Presidency then proposed to give the panel a broadly-worded mandate that would avoid the most sensitive issues, including the reopening of the EU institutional debate, the reform of existing EU policies (such as the common agricultural policy), the 2008-2009 reform of EU finances as well as specific reference to the EU's future geographical borders. ¶4. As crafted by the EU PermReps and endorsed by the FMs (December 10) and the European Council, the mandate will be to identify "the key issues and developments that the EU is likely to face" and to "analyze how these might be addressed." Among these subjects, the text quotes: "the reinforcement and modernization of the "European model of economic success and social responsibility," the rule of law, sustainable development, global security, migration, energy, climate protection, and the fight against international crime and terrorism. The group will also "need to take account of likely developments within and outside Europe and examine in particular how the stability and prosperity of both the Union and of the wider region might best be served in the longer term." French officials highlighted the formula as involving an implicit mandate to discuss Turkey and the "borders of Europe." Sarkozy told his final press conference the group would reflect on "the contents of the European dream," asking: "Is the vision still the same as the vision of an integrated Europe that we had after WWII?" Sarkozy said the group "should not necessarily decide but could very well propose options." ¶5. COMMENT. The establishment of the panel and the wording of its mandate owe much to the EU's collective need to enlist French support for the continuation of the accession negotiations with Turkey (two new chapters will be opened on December 19). Danish PM Anders Fogh Rasmussen made it clear the group was "something that we reluctantly agreed because it is important for one big Member State." END COMMENT. MURRAY