RESPONSE TO DEMARCHE URGING THE EC TO SEND

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRUSSELS 003500

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/13/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PK
SUBJECT: RESPONSE TO DEMARCHE URGING THE EC TO SEND
PAKISTAN ELECTION OBSERVER MISSION

REF: SECSTATE 165479

Classified By: Polmincouns Larry Wohlers, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) USEU delivered points (reftel) on December 11 to Helen
Campbell, Head of Unit for South Asia in the European
Commission DG for External Relations (RELEX),and,
separately, to Stefano Gatto, elections desk officer in the
RELEX Office for Human Rights and Democratization. We were
not able to speak directly with Richard Kuehnel, of
Commissioner Ferrero-Waldner's cabinet, but Kuehnel passed us
a message that he had been briefed on the U.S. position
(presumably by Campbell) and that they would take our views
into account in making a final decision. We left a message
with a contact who covers transatlantic relations in
Ferrero-Waldner's cabinet. It has been difficult to reach
these contacts due to a number of high level EU events this
week.


2. (C) Campbell said that Commissioner for External Relations
Benita Ferrero-Waldner was expected to make a final decision
on the scope of the mission sometime between December 15 and
December 17 assuming the state of emergency is lifted on
December 15, as expected. Campbell added that she would make
sure the USG's views were known to all of the actors involved
in discussions. She confided that she shared our views and
that in internal discussions she was arguing in favor of
sending the most robust election observer mission possible.


3. (C) Campbell stressed that the EC was not considering
cancelling their mission outright - rather they were debating
the scope and extent of the mission. Gatto noted that they
were considering a range of different scenarios and were
technically prepared to deploy whatever type of mission was
agreed. Gatto explained the differences between the primary
options being considered by the EC: a more robust EC election
observer mission would involve more people on the ground. It
would issue an independent, public report that was not
required to be blessed by EU member state governments.
(Note: Gatto cautioned that such a mission may issue a very
negative public report if they have serious concerns about
the elections.) On the other hand, an EC election assessment
mission would involve fewer people, a more limited time span,
and a report only to the EU, not to the public.

4, (C) Both Campbell and Gatto noted that the EC employs
strict methodology for its election observer missions,
defined by EC rules. Normally they place long term observers
in country six weeks before the election, but their rules do
not permit them to deploy a mission during a state of
emergency, so in the case of Pakistan they have not yet been
able to station observers. Even if Ferrero-Waldner decided
to send observers to Pakistan immediately upon the lifting of
the state of emergency, the analysis of the observers would
be limited by their time constraints.


5. (C) Comment. A UK Perm Rep contact offered additional
insight into EU discussions on the election mission. She
said no member states were currently objecting to the
deployment of an EC mission, provided the state of emergency
was lifted and subject to the Commission's assessment of the
security situation. At the December 12 working group meeting
of South Asia experts from EU capitals, the UK suggested that
the presidency issue a statement the week of December 17.
The statement would welcome the lifting of the state of
emergency, announce the deployment of an EC election mission,
and list steps the Government of Pakistan should take to
ensure free and fair elections - steps related to voter
registration, the need for transparency, etc. No member
states objected, so the presidency agreed to issue a
statement.


6. (C) The UK contact said no member states objected to
sending a robust mission, and that many had offered the
assistance of their personnel from embassies in Islamabad to
back up the EC team on the ground. In response to our
question, the contact acknowledged that some in the
Commission seemed concerned about the effect that a public,
negative election report could have on EU-Pakistan relations.
She said that the UK had countered that argument in meetings
of the 27 by stressing that the risk of a negative report
should not keep them from deploying a mission. There was
still time for Pakistan to rectify some of its problems
before the election took place. The UK argued that the
presidency statement the UK had proposed would give Pakistan
the opportunity to take positive steps. End Comment.
MURRAY
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