DUTCH AND CYPRIOTS LOUDEST NAY-SAYERS ON KOSOVO AT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 003481 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE ALSO FOR EUR/ERA, EUR/SCE; NSC FOR AINSLEY, BRAUN E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2017 TAGS: PREL EAID KV EUN SUBJECT: DUTCH AND CYPRIOTS LOUDEST NAY-SAYERS ON KOSOVO AT DEC. 10 GAERC; SUMMIT DRAFT STATEMENT NOW IN CAPITALS Classified By: Political M/C Laurence Wohlers for reason 1.5 (b/d). SUMMARY - - - - ¶1. (C) According to numerous sources, the Dec 10 GAERC discussions on Kosovo were both exhaustive and exhausting, with virtually every FonMin insisting on speaking. As a result, the four-hour marathon crowded out other important issues (including Iran). In the naysayer camp, the Cypriots continued to "read the Russian talking points", while the Dutch tried, apparently unsuccessfully, to build concern about the "thin legal basis of 1244" for moving forward. Nevertheless, sources were upbeat that no member state had succeeded in rallying a coalition for its specific concern and, as a result, the draft conclusions for the Dec 14 EU Council had emerged unchanged. Dutch permrep contacts told us that, having failed to win support at the GAERC, the Dutch government was reviewing its options but now understood that it was isolated on its concerns. European Council language likely will note that the EU is ready "to assist Kosovo on its path toward sustainable stability, including by intensifying its preparations for an ESDP mission..." but may not refer specifically to potential candidate status for Serbia and to Kosovo's European perspective, given Dutch sensitivities. (See para six below for an informal version of the draft text.) The text will certainly still be the subject of discussion between capitals this week, but the formal Brussels debate appears over. It is not clear if the text will again be debated by the heads of state on Dec 14: UK and other permrep contacts believe that leaders may choose to adopt it with little or no discussion. End Summary 'SENSE OF INEVITABILITY," .. BUT ... - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) Stefan Lehne, Council Secretariat for the W. Balkans, told us December 11 that the almost four-hour restricted FMs' lunch discussion on Kosovo resulted in "nothing particularly fascinating." Lehne, who had received a readout from EU PolDir Robert Cooper, said most FMs sensed the "inevitability" of moving forward on Kosovo. Still, there was the "usual unhappiness among the usual suspects." While no FM called for new negotiations between Belgrade and Pristina, the Cypriots "were pretty tough" and The Netherlands insisted on identifying a sound legal basis before moving forward. UK Deputy PSC Ambassador Lapsley told Pol M/C that the Cypriots had "delivered the Russian talking points," but in the end Nicosia most likely will not block consensus. ¶3. (C) German Mission W. Balkans expert Andrea Berdesinski said the GAERC "had gone okay," stressing that no FM had called into question the Troika's conclusions that negotiations were exhausted. Berdesinski told us that "fewer and fewer countries are hesitating on moving forward," particularly regarding the ESDP Mission. Spain and Slovakia made helpful interventions on the ESDP Mission, with Spain and Romania noting the need to move forward quickly (with the Romanians noting their planned large contribution of police to the mission). Berdesinski said Germany and most member states expect Cyprus eventually to capitulate. More worrisome to Berlin is Dutch insistence on identifying a "sound legal basis" to move forward on Kosovo. ¶4. (C) Dutch PSC Ambassador Milders told Pol M/C December 11 that the Dutch FM wanted to make clear the Hague's concerns that UNSCR 1244 is a "thin" legal basis for launching an ESDP mission in an "unfriendly environment." Milders said the Dutch had expected some other member states to share Dutch concerns about the legal basis. When no other FM did so, the Dutch found themselves isolated. Milders explained to us that his government was seeking some ammunition, given that it would have to obtain parliamentary approval for the planned participation of 50 Dutch men and women in the mission. He also noted that the Dutch favor watering down the proposed European Council language on Serbia's potential candidate status (given its lack of full cooperation with the ICTY) and on Kosovo's European vocation. Our German contact confirmed this, noting that most member states could live with a more general reference to the European vocation of the region. She added that most member states favor shifting the planned special January GAERC and recognition calendar scenario to after the Serb presidential elections if, indeed, the two rounds are held as expected January 20 and February 3 respectively. NEXT STEPS: THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL DEC. 14 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - BRUSSELS 00003481 002 OF 002 ¶5. (C/NF) According to our contacts, a draft text on Kosovo is now circulating in capitals and wll be coordinated by the Portuguese Presidencyfor issuance by Portuguese PM Socrates at the European Council in Brussels December 14. Portuguese Deputy Special Envoy for the W. Balkans Jose Pedro Viera told us the main message -- that the EU stands ready to assume its responsibilities in Kosovo -- remains unchanged for the time being. Given the lack of strong leadership from the Portuguese Presidency on Kosovo over the past several months, and the conscious need to preserve unity among the 27, we cannot discount any last-minute problems -- such as the one posed by the Dutch. That said, even Solana was "encouraged" by the GAERC, particularly by the apparent readiness of many member states to launch the ESDP Mission, a member of his private office told us. ¶6. (SBU) Another member state PSC ambassador provided us the pertinent language currently circulating: The EU notes the UNSC will address Kosovo in December and underscored that the EU stands ready to play a leading role in strengthening stability in the region and in implementing a settlement defining Kosovo's future status and states further the EU's readiness to assist Kosovo on the path toward sustainable stability, including by intensifying its preparations for an ESDP Mission and for a contribution to an ICO as part of an international presence. The EU will also be ready to assist in the economic and political development (presumably of Kosovo specifically or of the region) through a European perspective. MURRAY .