EU: EXPECT POSITIVE STATEMENT ON KOSOVO AT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 003430 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS STATE ALSO FOR EUR/ERA, EUR/SCE, EUR/ACE PLEASE PASS TO USAID/EE E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2017 TAGS: PREL EAID ZL EUN SUBJECT: EU: EXPECT POSITIVE STATEMENT ON KOSOVO AT DECEMBER 14 SUMMIT REF: BRUSSELS 3382 Classified By: Acting DepPolCouns V. Carver for reasons 1.5 (B/D). SUMMARY - - - - ¶1. (C/NF) Several missions have told us that the Political and Security Committee's (PSC) November 29 review of Kosovo was more detailed than previous discussions. While the meeting took no decisions, PSC ambassadors likely will recommend that the December 10 GAERC note that the Troika process has concluded and that efforts to find a negotiated solution have been exhausted. EU leaders would then issue a statement at their December 14 European Council (summit) noting that the EU will assume its responsibilities in Kosovo. Our contacts noted the likelihood of a special GAERC one or two days after a UDI, with the formal launching of the ESDP mission possibly at the January 28 GAERC. Lithuania reportedly pushed in PSC discussions for a strong public marker at the EU Council that the 27 were united to oppose any efforts to use Kosovo as an excuse to modify security arrangements elsewhere in Europe, notably Moldova. A/S Fried's visit December 6 offers an opportunity to strengthen the EU's backbone to take the necessary decisions in the weeks ahead. End summary DISCUSSION MOVES TO TIME-FRAME - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) UK PSC Ambassador King, Lithuanian PSC Ambassador Jankauskas, Slovak Mission Balkans expert Juaisova, and Greek Balkans expert Athamassiadou (protect all) told us November 29-30 that the PSC had a lengthy discussion November 29 on Kosovo. According to Juaisova, given the Troika's communique that noted its failure to find a negotiated solution, most member states want to move forward on planning for a UDI. While no decisions have yet been reached, Juaisova said the likeliest scenario would be: week of December 3 Ischinger may brief PSC; Dec. 10 GAERC simply takes note of troika's efforts and that the CG will present the troika report that same day; Dec. 14 European Council issues a statement noting that the EU is ready to assume its responsibilities regarding Kosovo while at the same time underscoring the European perspective for Serbia. ¶3. (C/NF) Our contacts noted that the EU would almost certainly hold a special GAERC coming one or two days after a UDI -- characterized by Juaisova as "now expected sometime in January," with FMs adopting the "Montenegrin model" of taking note of the UDI. Juaisova said several member states want assurances, possibly included in the Kosovo constitution, that various "Ahtisaari principles" are legally paramount in Kosovo, with any Kosovo legislation contravening those principles struck down. (Note: She did not explain how this would be accomplished, but other EU contacts note that this would be an ICR responsibility.) A "critical mass" (but Juaisova would not speculate on exact numbers, and she noted that only her PM knows when Slovakia would recognize) of member states would recognize before the GAERC on January 28. She noted that there is still a divide among member states over when best to formally launch the ESDP Mission; some member states want to do so at the special GAERC, others want to wait a few additional weeks to allow recruitment and procurement to continue behind-the-scenes, so as to have even more people and equipment on the ground when the mission is formally launched. Juaisova noted that ICR-designate Pieter Feith shares this view. KEEPING SERBIA ON TRACK - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (C/NF) Juaisova and Athamassiadou explained that the French, supported by several member states (undoubtedly including the incoming Slovene presidency) are pushing for speedy discussions as early as January on visa liberalization "for the region, but aimed initially at Serbia." Signing an SAA with Belgrade is also not off the table. According to Juaisova, some member states believe that should Belgium form a new government in time and replace its current FM, the Belgians will be more flexible on signing an SAA with Belgrade, with an isolated Netherlands more susceptible to pressure to agree, even without Mladic arrested. Juaisova added that with Del Ponte's term expiring at the end of the year, Dutch influence on the incoming Chief Prosecutor may be less than what The Hague presumably had with Del Ponte. Athamassiadou said that the EU could not wait for "several months" without doing something both concrete (visa BRUSSELS 00003430 002 OF 002 facilitation and liberalization) and symbolic (signing an SAA) for Serbs. She agreed that a new Belgian government might join the emerging consensus favoring these steps for Belgrade. Athamassiadou was not as optimistic as Juaisova about the Dutch supporting this absent Mladic's arrest. COMMENT: NEED FOR EU UNITY INCREASINGLY ISOLATING ANTI-ESDP COUNTRIES, BUT... - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (C/NF) The EU's continued insistence on unity dragged out the final status process through much of the last several months, as various member states insisted on the need for a UNSCR and then for continued negotiations. Now the tide appears to be working in our favor, with the "usual suspect" holdouts jumping, however unenthusiastically, on the bandwagon of reality. In fact, only Romania and Cyprus are now regularly cited as holdouts, and the Romanian PSC ambassador told us this week that, for all its concerns about not isolating Serbia, Romania would not block EU consensus. Moreover, both will be subject to increasing pressure from other member states. Also on the positive side of the ledger, a PSC contact told us that, at a Nov 29 PSC discussion on the legal basis for an ESDP mission, only the Cypriots appeared to insist that the EU needed an explicit request from the UNSYG before it could launch. The Nov 29 PSC discussion of the press line for the EU Council was also reportedly positive. Lithuanian sources told us that they had found the Portuguese "very solid," but Vilnius is still pushing to include a clear statement that the 27 were united in insisting that Kosovo must not be used as an excuse to change the security status quo elsewhere in Europe, meaning Moldova and Georgia. ¶6. (C/NF) That said, various Brussels contacts concede that many member states would still dearly love to have a formal UN blessing, and several have made clear that if the 27 need "more time" to reach consensus, the Kosovars will just have to wait. In that context, UK permrep sources noted that Moscow's dangling the possibility of a UNSCR authorizing the ESDP Mission could be very attractive to many legal departments in the MFAs and chancelleries of member states, and would provide ready justification for some for a delay in final status determination. ¶7. (C/NF) A/S Fried's visit December 6 offers an opportunity to encourage the Euros to continue their planning on meeting the challenge of Kosovo independence and the launching of the ESDP Mission. We should praise the EU's role as personified by Ischinger in the troika's exhaustive efforts to find a negotiated solution. We should once again agree on the need to reach out to moderate leaders and civic society in Belgrade (though the 27 seem at a loss as to how to do that, given that the EU has no mechanisms to coordinate and implement such a policy). The Euros will also want to be reassured that the U.S. will remain committed to the region, including through KFOR and our significant contribution of personnel to the ESDP Mission. Now that the EU bandwagon finally appears on the right track, we will need to continue to voice our support -- and our concerns. MURRAY .