EU CONTACTS DISCUSS MIDDLE EAST PEACE PROCESS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRUSSELS 003093 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/27/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV IS SY LE XF EUN SUBJECT: EU CONTACTS DISCUSS MIDDLE EAST PEACE PROCESS Classified By: Deputy Political Minister Counselor Alyce Tidball for re asons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C/NF) EU Council Middle East Unit Chief Christian Jouret characterized the Quartet and other meetings in New York as good, but expressed his personal concern from side meetings with Arab officials that "the Arabs" are not privately as optimistic or constructive as they appeared to be. Jouret said the Arabs don't want to be spoilers and are willing to voice public support for the upcoming international meeting, but they don't believe in the process because they fear it will not address the core issues. The Arabs, he said, point to the internal political situations in both the Palestinian Territories, with the Hamas-Fatah split, and in Israel, with ever more political opposition to moving the process forward. On the positive side, Jouret said, they are being publicly constructive, not voicing loudly their personal pessimism. ¶3. (C/NF) Cherif Castel, Political Advisor to the EU Special Representative to the MEPP Marc Otte, was positive in his assessment of the September 23 Quartet meeting, but worried that signs are not encouraging for a large Arab participation in the upcoming international meeting. He said the Arabs put their planned critical statement back in their pockets at the Quartet meeting once it was clear they and Syria would be invited to the international meeting. He also said that the Russians had intended to propose another conference following the international meeting if the Arabs were not invited, but the announced intention to include the Arab League follow up committee calmed their concerns. Castel reported that even some NGOs said it was the best Quartet meeting this year and the best Quartet statement. Castel heard concerns that security was not addressed and there was no discussion of a strategy for Gaza. Signs from the region, he said, indicated Arab pessimism about the meeting - Hamas has said it would not stand by any agreement reached at the meeting, Syrian papers are saying core issues will not be discussed, and Iran has said it is not a serious effot. The Gaza closure is causing growing criticsm of Fatah. The extended range of rockets fired from Gaza is also a big concern, on the one hand because these could cause more fatalities in Israel and on the other hand because it could give the Israeli Defense Forces a reason to attack. Another concern is that Hamas is rearming its people in the West Bank. ¶4. (C) All EU institutions and member state contacts, including French, Spanish, Italian and UK delegation representatives in separate meetings, were very supportive of the process. The Italian representative suggested there is more going on than Olmert and Abbas let on, based on an impression the Italians have of uneasiness amongst the radical groups. Italy is trying, she said, to be a voice of reason and understands the need to encourage both sides. The French representative cautioned that Syria is reluctant to attend because Hamas will not be invited. The Spanish representative said Syria may not attend if their concerns regarding the Golan Heights are not addressed, noting that Assad also has to sell any change of policy internally. The Spanish representative said the EU encourages the process, but noted that comprehensive peace means all tracks must be in motion simultaneously, as everything is interlinked. Gray .