SOLANA TO PRESS EU FMS ON NEED FOR REALISTIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRUSSELS 002765 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/04/2017 TAGS: PREL EUN KV SUBJECT: SOLANA TO PRESS EU FMS ON NEED FOR REALISTIC PLANNING ON KOSOVO Classified By: Acting PolChief V. Carver for reasons 1.5 (b/d). SUMMARY - - - - ¶1. (C) An EU official told us September 4 that High Rep Javier Solana will press EU foreign ministers, at their informal "Gymnich" meeting September 7-8, on the need for realistic planning on scenarios for Kosovo even as the Contact Group troika talks proceed. The Portuguese Mission told us separately some member states view such planning as prejudging the troika talks. End summary. ¶2. (C) We met separately September 4 with Michael Giffoni, Council Secretariat Deputy Director for te W. Balkans, and Alexandra Bilreiho, Portuguse Mission W. Balkans expert, to review Kosovo before the September 5 Political and Security Committee's discussion of Kosovo with EU representative to the Contact Group Troika, Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger. Giffoni said that the EU members of the Quint remain committed to moving forward "realistically" on Kosovo soon after the "increasingly likely" unilateral declaration of independence by Pristina should the troika-facilitated negotiations fail. Even Spain, he observed, appeared lately to be taking a more realistic line on Kosovo. Romania, Slovakia, Hungary, and Greece remain hesitant to move forward absent a UNSCR. Cyprus, he predicted, will "never" recognize an independent Kosovo absent UNSC blessing. Giffoni cautioned that various political parties in both Rome and Berlin could use any decisions to recognize Kosovo's independence as a pretext to challenge the respective governing coalitions. ¶3. (C) We stressed the need for continued prudent planning, including on how to stand up an ESDP (or, if absolutely necessary because of various member states' legal objections, an ESDP-like) rule of law mission in Kosovo. Giffoni said the Council Secretariat continues informally to examine ways such a mission might be launched under the cover of a letter from UN SYG Ban. Asked if he envisioned Ban's sending a letter if Moscow adamantly opposed such a move, Giffoni acknowledged that Russia could probably block this option if it chose to do so. ¶4. (C) Giffoni stressed that EU High Rep. Solana will underscore two messages on Kosovo to EU FMs at their informal "Gymnich" meeting in Portugal September 7-8. First, he will stress that he wants the current round of troika-facilitated negotiations to succeed, even though he thinks the likelihood of success is slim. Second, he will emphasize the need to consider alternatives should the talks fail to produce an agreement. Giffoni added that Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn will echo Solana's remarks. ¶5. (C) Portuguese Mission W. Balkans expert Alexandra Bilreiho offered a different analysis of EU policy regarding Kosovo. She stressed that it is still "too early" for the EU to discuss scenarios should the troika-facilitated talks fail. Several member states would view this as prejudging the troika process as a failure and the 120-day period as simply "window dressing." We assured her that we continue to favor a negotiated solution but that we are also encouraging prudent planning, given Belgrade's positions, including during the Ahtisaari talks. ¶6. (C) Bilreiho said she expected Ischinger to characterize the August 30 Vienna talks as somewhat positive. The Serbs finally stopped talking about procedure and turned to substance, even if they offered little new. According to Bilreiho, there appeared to be an "increased sense of urgency" from both Pristina and Belgrade in Vienna. She reiterated that, while the odds for a negotiated solution are "quite slim," the EU should focus on facilitating the talks and avoid discussing post-December 10 scenarios. COMMENT - - - - ¶7. (C) The news that Solana will urge EU FMs to support planning for various post-December 10 scenarios is welcome. Rehn can, indeed, be expected to reinforce this message, particularly in the framework of stability and an EU future for the countries of the region. The Portuguese Mission's remarks are disheartening but not unexpected. Portugal is seeking to represent all 27 member states and their views remain divergent. Our contacts at the Portuguese Mission appear content not to forge a stronger EU policy on Kosovo. From our view, working with the EU Quint members and Solana will be more productive than depending on Lisbon to move other EU member states in the right direction. MURRAY .