S/E NATSIOS URGES EU TO SUPPORT SUDAN SANCTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 002302 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/16/2017 TAGS: PREL SU CD EUN SUBJECT: S/E NATSIOS URGES EU TO SUPPORT SUDAN SANCTIONS AND PEACEKEEPERS FOR CHAD Classified By: Enlargement/Africa Unit Chief V. Carver for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Special Envoy for Sudan Andrew Natsios met with EU officials and French FM Kouchner June 22 to share views on progress in Darfur. Natsios expressed support for FM Kouchner's plan to move French and EU peacekeepers into Chad. He continued to press the EU to implement its own sanctions against Sudan, and heard from Commission officials more willingness than in the past to consider them. EU officials agreed that the U.S. and EU should support only one NGO to facilitate rebel group negotiations since the multiplication of outside efforts was proving counterproductive. Both Natsios and his European counterparts also agreed that continued conflict in Darfur not only destabilizes the region but imperils North-South unity in Sudan and makes it more likely that Southern Sudan will secede in 2011 as allowed under the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). End Summary. French peacekeeping plan for Chad -------------- ¶2. (C) In a breakfast meeting with SE Natsios, French FM Kouchner expressed great optimism for his three-pronged plan to bring peacekeepers to Chad, but acknowledged that the EU, "sees us (the French) as newcomers who are wrecking the whole (EU) operation." Kouchner asked for U.S. support, particularly in influencing other EU Member States to support his proposal to send up to 3,000 French (and possibly Swedish, Norwegian and other) troops to Chad to protect civilians and rebuild villages. Chadian President Deby has endorsed the plan, which gives responsibility for patrolling the border with Sudan to Chadian gendarmes and police, not the international military forces, Kouchner said. The French would be replaced as soon as possible by EU peacekeepers, who would eventually be replaced by UN peacekeepers. "We can go quickly but we are not prepared to stay for a long time," Kouchner said. French PSC Ambassador Christine Roger cautioned that the EU will need some serious persuading to agree to the French plan. Germany, in particular, is reluctant to send European peacekeepers to Africa, and other key countries, including Portugal, Sweden, and Denmark, must also be brought on board, she said, adding that U.S. support could help change minds. SE Natsios told the Europeans, "We think it's an excellent idea." ¶3. (C) During a luncheon with various EU and member state officials, German and British officials expressed reservations about the French plan, as did the Africa director for the Council Secretariat. Michael O'Neill, Political Counselor at the UK Permanent Representation to the EU, said the extent of Chadian President Deby's support for the peacekeepers would have to be clarified, and an exit strategy for the EU would have to be laid out before the UK could back the plan. Koen Vervaeke, head of the Africa policy unit at the Council Secretariat, also used the term "exit strategy," saying the EU would not undertake an open-ended commitment without a clear plan from the UN to replace the EU troops at a time certain. German PSC Ambassador Clemens Von Goetze wondered whether improved conditions in Chad might compel refugees to move from Darfur to Chad, but Natsios said that, unless they felt seriously threatened, it was unlikely refugees would move to a place where they weren't eligible to vote. Von Goetze said the German public might question why the EU was putting peacekeepers in Chad when the more serious problems were in Darfur. "The public will say that you are doing an easy job in an easy place with French troops that are already on the ground," he said. Jean-Christophe Belliard, of the Council Secretariat's Africa policy unit, said that peace in eastern SIPDIS Chad could help simplify the political process in Darfur. (Note: Since Natsios visited Brussels, the French have modified their proposal to use deployment of the planned UN/AU hybrid force in Sudan as the exit strategy that would allow EU troops to leave eastern Chad. The Germans and UK have reportedly softened their stance and have told the French they will not block the plan to send EU peacekeepers - primarily from France and the Nordic countries - to Chad.) EU moves cautiously forward on sanctions -------------- ¶4. (C) Kouchner told Natsios that President Bashir does not BRUSSELS 00002302 002 OF 002 acknowledge the realities in Darfur and has no interest in resolving the situation. "The government is very close to us and we are offering them an escape way, but they don't want an escape way," said Kouchner. Although Bashir professes not to care what the West thinks, Kouchner believes Bashir and his top officials are feeling the economic pinch of U.S. sanctions. Natsios said that if euro transactions could be restricted in addition to dollar transactions, the Sudanese regime would be further affected. During a separate meeting with EU officials, Vervaeke, of the Council Secretariat, told Natsios there is no consensus within the EU to impose European sanctions on Sudan. O'Neill, of the UK, said his government believed a credible threat of sanctions could be effective. Roger Moore, Director for the Horn of Africa at the European Commission's Directorate General for Development, said that the EU has never imposed trade sanctions on an African, Caribbean, and Pacific (ACP) country during its long history of ACP partnership agreements. Moore told Natsios, however, that he could imagine the EU supporting targeted sanctions like asset freezing and travel bans against select Sudanese individuals, similar to those the EU has imposed on Zimbabwe. Both Natsios and Moore shared concerns about whether EU funds given to the AU to pay the salaries of peacekeepers in Sudan are being used properly given reports that the peacekeepers have not been paid in months. Too many outsiders wanting to help -------------- ¶5. (C) Kouchner and Natsios agreed on the importance of getting rebel groups to agree on a united stand for further negotiation with the Sudanese government. Instead of allowing numerous well-intentioned Western organizations to continue to offer mediation assistance, Natsios pressed, and Kouchner seemed to agree, that the Center for Humanitarian Dialogue in Geneva should be tapped to take the lead. Kouchner noted that Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM) Leader Abdul Wahid still has strong support and influence in Darfur despite the fact that he now spends all his time in Paris. At Natsios, request, Kouchner said he would ask Wahid to attend rebel group negotiating sessions in Nairobi and Juba. EU officials in the larger luncheon meeting agreed that only one outside group should work with the rebels, otherwise the Government of Sudan will continue to delay progress on peace talks. Said Belliard, of the Council Secretariat, "Khartoum has an interest in multiplication of diplomatic efforts." Implications for North-South unity -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Natsios and EU officials agreed that continued instability in Darfur makes it more likely that southern Sudan will secede from the North in 2011, as it is allowed to under the Comprehensive Peace Agreement. Belliard said that EU Foreign Policy Chief Javier Solana's consistent message to the government in Khartoum has been, "Render unity attractive." And to China, with vast economic interests in Sudan, Solana has said, "Push Khartoum on Darfur. Otherwise the country will break apart," Belliard said. ¶7. (U) SE Natsios did not have an opportunity to clear on this report. GRAY .