NEGROPONTE DISCUSSES SUDAN SANCTIONS, SOMALIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 001664 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV EAID EUN AF SUBJECT: NEGROPONTE DISCUSSES SUDAN SANCTIONS, SOMALIA PEACEKEEPING WITH EU Classified By: Pol MinCouns Laurence Wohlers, reasons 1.4 b/d ¶1. (C) Summary: In a May 17 meeting, Deputy Secretary John D. Negroponte heard from two EU's senior experts on Africa policy that discussions of imposing European sanctions on Sudan are stalled. The EU is looking to the UN to take the lead on multilateral sanctions, but says the UN Security Council needs more time to work toward consensus. The EU officials welcomed additional U.S. pressure on Bashir but worried about the U.S. proceeding with sanctions of its own, saying it would make China and Arab League countries less likely to support multilateral sanctions. On Somalia, EU officials were optimistic that, despite serious obstacles, President Yusuf is moving in the right direction and has the best interests of a peaceful, prosperous Somalia at heart. EU officials hope to see AMISOM peacekeepers replace Ethiopian troops soon, but note that lack of donor funding has slowed the deployment of new AMISOM forces. End Summary. EU Favors Slow Approach on Sanctions -------------- ¶2. (C) Deputy Secretary Negroponte, accompanied by Ambassador Gray, met in Brussels with Koen Vervaeke, Head of the Africa Policy Unit at the European Council Secretariat, and Jean-Christophe Belliard, Special Emissary on Somalia, to discuss mutual concerns in the Horn of Africa. Vervaeke told the Deputy Secretary that the U.S. and EU are largely on the same page regarding policy on Sudan and Somalia. Belliard said external pressure, particularly from the U.S., is very effective in forcing change on a Sudanese regime that is isolated from its own people, and he said such pressure was the key to reaching a Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in South Sudan. The EU, he said, supports sanctions, but in a politically inclusive way that involves a unified UN approach and doesn't just pit the West against Sudan. Vervaeke described the discussion on EU sanctions as "frozen," with many of the 27 member states preferring, for the moment, to press diplomatic efforts in New York. ¶3. (C) Responding to the Deputy Secretary's statement that the U.S. is likely to impose sanctions soon, Belliard said such a move could be counterproductive and could derail consensus in the UN Security Council. Noting the cautions of UNSYG Ban and African Union Commission Chairman Konare, 
Belliard and Vervaeke said they favor giving the political process more time. They said both China and the Arab League states may be moving slowly toward support for sanctions, but are not there yet. "It is important not to be impatient," Belliard said. He noted positively Saudi Arabia's initiative in bringing Presidents Bashir and Deby together for talks, saying normalization of relations between Sudan and Chad could help bring peace to the region. He also praised the current effort of the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) to bring the dissident rebel groups together. ¶4. (C) Vervaeke agreed with the Deputy Secretary's observation that President Bashir seems to be trying to separate the issue of allowing a Heavy Support Package (HSP) in Sudan from the issue of allowing a hybrid UN-AU force to deploy, and both expressed concern about Konare's statements to the EU that the international community should concentrate on the HSP and worry about the hybrid force later. Belliard noted that the issue of independence for Southern Sudan is inextricably linked to progress in Darfur. Without resolution of the Darfur crisis, Southern Sudan is likely to vote for independence from the rest of the country, as it will be allowed to do in 2011 under the CPA. Belliard said the EU believes Khartoum would never allow independence for the south, particularly given the location of oil reserves there. EU: Somalia Moving in Right Direction -------------- ¶5. (C) Belliard, who returned this week from a trip to Cairo, Addis Ababa, and Nairobi, said his meetings with Somali TFG President Yusuf and Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi convinced him that both leaders want to do the right thing in Somalia, but need continued pressure and support from the international community. He said Ethiopia is looking for a way out of Somalia and should leave soon, but that Mogadishu would collapse if Ethiopian troops left today. The answer is to get more AMISOM peacekeepers deployed to assist the 1,700 Ugandans currently there, and to train a new Somali army, Belliard said. Nigeria and Burundi are prepared to send BRUSSELS 00001664 002 OF 002 peacekeepers, but funding remains an obstacle. Vervaeke noted that the EU's annual 100 million euro Africa Peace Facility fund is depleted for this year. The UN is unlikely to take over a peacekeeping operation in Somalia without a political reconciliation process first, he said. Belliard outlined EU hopes for the upcoming planned National Reconciliation Conference, including agreement on a new power-sharing formula, appointment of a new prime minister, and a more representative Hawiye leadership. There is no international consensus on Hawiye leaders in the government, with Egypt supporting a role for Hassan Dahir Aweys, while Meles, Yusuf, and Konare want Aweys excluded, Belliard said. ¶6. (U) Deputy Secretary Negroponte has cleared this message. MCKINLEY .