BELGIAN ELECTIONS PROSPECTIVE: UP FOR GRABS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 001642 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV BE SUBJECT: BELGIAN ELECTIONS PROSPECTIVE: UP FOR GRABS REF: 2006 BRUSSELS 3681 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: With the June 10 national elections fast approaching, Belgium's political leaders are beginning to focus on the nitty-gritty mathematical aspects of forming the next governing coalition. Most observers believe there are four possibilities -- continuation of the present Flemish and Walloon Liberal/Socialist "purple" coalition; a similar combination in which the two liberal partners are replaced by the two Christian-Democrat parties; a Liberal, Socialist, Christian Democrat, and Green coalition; or, least likely, a combination in which the Socialists head the opposition. The current partners appear to prefer carrying on with another term of the present purple coalition. The continued weakness in the polls of the Prime Minister's Flemish Liberals (Open VLD) are making this appear increasingly unlikely, hence the scramble to devise something different. End summary. ¶2. (U) Belgium's low key electoral campaign has yielded few fireworks beyond a couple of waspish "Yes you did/No I did not" exchanges between Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt and his principal rival, Flemish Minister-President Yves Leterme. The real action is taking place off-stage as the parties assess how they might, or might not, fit into the next coalition. Having spoken to a broad range of senior party insiders, we have discerned four basic models about what might happen next. They are detailed in the following paragraphs. RENEWING THE CURRENT FORMULA -------------- ¶3. (U) The present governing coalition includes two liberal parties, Verhofstadt's Open VLD and the Francophone MR led by current Finance Minister Didier Reynders, and two socialist parties, the Flemish SP.A and the Francophone PS. Verhofstadt and his partners clearly would like to keep their partnership intact, not least because doing so would provide continuity and afford the smoothest transition after the election. It is not impossible to imagine a return to this purple coalition since, according to the last pre-campaign polls, three of the four parties have solid numbers. That said, the weakness of the fourth party -- Verhofstadt's Open VLD, which has remained mired near the bottom of the polls for over a year -- has prompted his partners to look at other options. His Flemish supporters appear to believe that Verhofstadt has made too many compromises on social issues with the PS. His high energy level also overwhelms many staid Flemings. A CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATIC-SOCIALIST PARTNERSHIP -------------- ¶4. (U) If voters force the present coalition partners to divorce, party leaders will look seriously to link up the two Christian Democratic parties (CD&V on the Flemish side and CdH on the Francophone side) with the two socialist parties. Under this scenario, which one senior Francophone socialist leader termed "the most comfortable and likely outcome," either Leterme or SP.A leader Johan Vande Lanotte would become Prime Minister, with the two Francophone parties taking command of other key ministries. There are at least two complicating factors, including the chance that the PS would become the largest single party in parliament, an eventuality that would raise the question of whether a Francophone (the linguistic minority in Belgium) could become Prime Minister. The second complication would derive from the difficult personal relationship between the two Christian Democratic leaders, Leterme and Francophone Joelle Milquet. LEAVING THE SOCIALISTS OUT ( -------------- ¶5. (U) This is probably the least likely possibility, most observers here believe. The two socialist parties together may well form the largest single party "family," meaning they could have the first chance to put a government together. They could thus form such a large bloc that no coalition would be possible without them. Similarly, the poor relationship between other parties (and within some parties) makes it all but certain that Belgium's government will include socialists. ¶6. (SBU) Francophone Socialist leaders fear the electoral consequences of a widening split within their ranks between a majority faction centered around current party leader Elio Di Rupo and an opposing van Cauwenberghe group led by the former Walloon Minister-President. Corruption scandals involving van Cauwenberghe's circle have created an opening for other parties, notably the MR, and seriously diminished Di Rupo's chances of becoming the first Francophone prime minister in many years. If another corruption scandal becomes public BRUSSELS 00001642 002 OF 002 between now and the election, the socialists could easily be knocked off their perch as the largest single party family. - AND LETTING THE GREENS IN -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Any revival in the electoral fortunes of the Prime Minister's party will increase the chances of a coalition including the two green parties, Ecolo in the Francophone part of the country and Groen! in the Flemish speaking section. Such a coalition also presupposes that the greens succeed in taking votes away from the socialists. This would be difficult, but not impossible. All parties are burnishing their green credentials, and appear determined to steal as many votes as possible from the greens. IMBRIE .