EU FOLLOW THROUGH ON UNSCR 1737 AND AUTONOMOUS

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 001037 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS NSC FOR SINGH E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2017 TAGS: ECON EFIN ETRD EUN IR PARM PREL SUBJECT: EU FOLLOW THROUGH ON UNSCR 1737 AND AUTONOMOUS DESIGNATIONS Classified By: POLMINCOUNS Laurence Wohlers for reasons 1.5 (d) and (e) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (S) On March 21, EU Member State experts on the Middle East and non-proliferation reached agreement on a list of Iranian entities and individuals the EU will likely designate for travel and visa bans under the EU's new Common Policy on Restrictive Measures Against Iran. The experts' recommendations were made in advance of the March 25 UN Security Council adoption of UNSCR 1747. A handful of individuals and entities sanctioned under the new UNSCR overlap with the EU's new "autonomous" designation list. The EU list is now wending its way toward formal adoption by the Council, likely in the next two weeks. On a separate track, another EU experts group continues to work through outstanding legal and technical issues on the Commission's new draft regulations for the implementation of the new Common Policy. END SUMMARY Designations -------------- ¶2. (S) On March 21, EU Middle East and Non-Pro experts endorsed a list of 20 (of 20) individuals and 12 (of 13) entities proposed by France and the UK for EU autonomous designation. (USEU forwarded a copy of this list EUR/ERA and ISN via classified e-mail on March 21.) According to two Member State contacts present at the debate, Spain reportedly blocked the group,s recommendation for designation of the Iranian Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics (MODAFL) on the grounds that it was too far reaching and could constitute a defacto designation of the entire Defense Ministry. All of the recommended designations were determined on the basis of open source and unclassified evidence. An Easter Deadline? -------------- ¶3. (S) The experts recommendations for the EU,s first round autonomous designation list and the EU's implementing regulations for the new Common Policy o Restrictive Measures Against Iran are expectd to be passed up to the Council for adoption before the EU's Easter recess. Another Brussels-based contact close to the EU scene pointed out that the EU's new regulation on implementing UNSCR 1737 would constitute the first-ever EU "hard" policy on non-proliferation for a third country. EU lawyers and policy experts were clearly aware of the broad implications of &getting it right8 on Iran. Fonmins To Mull Over Next Steps -------------- -------------- ¶4. (S) Moreover, at the March 30-31 informal meeting of EU Foreign Ministers in Bremen (aka Gymnich),discussion of UNSCR 1747 implementation is expected. Contentious issues to be broached by Fonmins may include arms sales to Iran and additional financial sanctions. One source assessed that UNSCR 1747 language on financial sanctions would largely determine the outcome of EU debate on cessation of export credits and sanctioning of Iranian financial entities. Some Member States fear that any EU agreement to cease future export credits would open the door to suspension of existing export credits. Any retroactive move could mean huge potential loses for some like Germany stood to lose approximately USD 7 billion if previous contracts were suspended. For all of these reasons, sources say, a common position is ultimately likely to call for reducing export credits, not ending them entirely. However, smaller countries with less existing exposure, such as Denmark and the Netherlands, could be supportive of a tougher line. Furthermore, our source pointed out that the Commission would have a big stake in the outcome of the debate on export credits. Currently the Commission has some competence over &export promotion8 but has not had any role in Member States' decisions on national export credits. If the EU were to adopt a common policy on export credits, the Commission's role could be broadened or redefined in some fashion. Franco-British Cooperation -------------- ¶5. (S/NF) Before circulating its list of candidates for autonomous designation with the wider Membership, the UK first shared the list with France. The French then came BRUSSELS 00001037 002 OF 002 forward with the additional names for consideration in a complementary fashion. Our UK contact (strictly protect) said that HMG was disappointed that other Member States, namely the Czech Republic, did not come forward with candidates for designation in this first round exercise. Our contact theorized that other Member States may have developed a comfortable passivity as a result of the EU-3,s leadership on the Iran nuclear file. In any case, the overall tone of the experts meeting was business-like and non-confrontational. Our contact thought the constructive atmospherics were the result of French and British advocacy in EU capitals in advance of the actual meeting. Second Round of Designations? -------------- ¶6. (C) Iran watchers we spoke to at the Council and a Permanent Missions assess that the EU may not hold another autonomous designation round until just before the end of the German Presidency. (Note: UNSCR 1747 would be conducted separately.) A next round will be considerably more difficult than the first because more Iranian officials would need to be considered, and classified and sensitive evidence shared in support of the case. .