ST. LUCIA CABINET RESHUFFLE, A STEP TOWARD A NEW

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 000749 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA/CAR-COLLINS ADDIS ABABA FOR ANTHONY FISHER SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD DOJ FOR OIA-ANDREW GENTEIN DHS/ICE FOR MICHAEL LAPORE E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/07/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR AORC OVIP KSUM KJUS KTIA ST XL SUBJECT: ST. LUCIA CABINET RESHUFFLE, A STEP TOWARD A NEW PRIME MINISTER REF: A. BRIDGETOWN 669 ¶B. BRIDGETOWN 49 Classified By: CDA Mary Ellen T. Gilroy for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On June 6, St. Lucia Prime Minister Sir John Compton reshuffled his cabinet, firing Foreign Minister Rufus Bousquet, demoting Home Affairs Minister Keith Mondesir, and giving their portfolios to Acting Prime Minister Stephenson King. Given Compton's health problems, it is widely believed that this is the first step toward his retirement that could occur around the start of this month's Caribbean Conference in Washington. With King, Minister for Social Transformation Lenard Montoute, and Housing Minister Richard Fredrick as possible successors, it is uncertain who will head the St. Lucian delegation at the Washington Conference; but for the moment, official St. Lucian communication indicates King as leading the delegation. The Comptroller of Customs may still charge Fredrick with customs fraud. This could impede Fredrick's aspirations to the top job, but the case hinges on evidence requested through the U.S.-St. Lucia Mutual Legal Assistance Treaty that may arrive too late to make a difference in the prime minister race. END SUMMARY. BOUSQUET OUT, MONDESIR DEMOTED, KING OVERWHELMED -------------- --- ¶2. (U) On June 6, Prime Minister Sir John Compton fired Foreign Minister Rufus Bousquet as part of a cabinet reshuffle. This reshuffle may be the first step toward PM Compton's retirement due to health reasons. Changes in the cabinet are as follows: -- Compton continues to serve as prime minister, but retains no other portfolios. -- Stephenson King will continue to serve as Acting Prime Minister and now heads a superministry of Finance (including International Financial Services),External Affairs, Home Affairs, National Security, Labour, and Information and Broadcasting. He is no longer Minister for Health. -- FM Bousquet was fired and no longer serves in the cabinet. He continues to sit as a member of parliament. -- Keith Mondesir was demoted and lost the Home Affairs and National Security portfolios. He is now Minister for Physical Planning and National Mobilization. -- Edmund Estephane is the new Minister for Health. -- Tessa Mangal now serves as a junior minister under King, with responsibility for Information and Broadcasting. -- All other appointments remain unchanged, including Richard Fredrick as Minister for Housing, Urban Renewal, and Local Government. FREDRICK MAY LEAD A THREE-WAY RACE -------------- ¶3. (C) Minister for Social Transformation, Lenard "Spider" Montoute, told PolOff on June 6 that PM Compton will likely retire "in two weeks." Other sources have also reported this potential timeline. According to Montoute, Compton will probably choose King as his successor, but King lacks cabinet support. Another source confirmed this, stating that no one in the cabinet trusts King because he assisted Compton in planning the cabinet reshuffle without discussing the plans with other cabinet members. ¶4. (C) Montoute also admitted that his chances of becoming prime minister have decreased significantly. Montoute, who recently commanded considerable public support, made two crucial missteps while serving as Acting Prime Minister for a week early in June. First, Montoute publicly stated that the cabinet requested Compton's medical records to determine how the government should move forward. This statement made the cabinet appear disrespectful and overeager to oust Compton from power. The statement also made Montoute look too ambitious. Second, Montoute made a political blunder when he stated that whoever becomes prime minister should seek a fresh mandate from the people. Knowing that an election would ensure victory for the opposition St. Lucia Labour Party (SLP),SLP leader and former Prime Minister Dr. Kenny Anthony quickly agreed publicly. Montoute recanted his statement clarifying that he meant a new prime minister would eventually need to seek a new mandate. However, these mistakes may be sufficient to end the short-term climb of this young politician. ¶5. (C) If neither King nor Montoute gain the support of the cabinet, Fredrick, who is suspected of ties to narcotraffickers and money launderers, may be the only leader left standing. Although recent public animosity against Fredrick's role in the cabinet coup temporarily dampened his political ambitions, Montoute said Fredrick is resurfacing in the leadership race. Fredrick has kept a low public profile since the April 30 coup, and the public animosity against him is slowly ebbing away. More importantly, he is maneuvering within the party, according to Montoute. Fredrick is independently wealthy and spreads his wealth liberally to increase his support within the cabinet. According to Embassy sources, Fredrick funded the campaigns of nearly all of the current cabinet members in the December 2006 elections. COMMENT: WHO WILL MEET PRESIDENT BUSH? -------------- ¶6. (C) Although Compton seems to be behind the recent cabinet changes, there is little doubt in the minds of St. Lucians that Compton's retirement is imminent. He made his first television appearance on June 4 and reportedly looked frail. Rumors of liver cancer have also surfaced. After his trip to see Compton in New York, Montoute told PolOff that, having seen his mother suffer from cancer, he believed Compton to be suffering from cancer as well. ¶7. (C) Little from this six-month United Workers Party administration has been predictable, and choosing a new prime minister will likely be no different. Although Acting Prime Minister King is currently scheduled to attend the Caribbean Conference, it is just as possible that St. Lucia may appoint a new prime minister days before the Conference. COMMENT CONTINUED: INHIBITING FREDRICK'S AMBITION -------------- -------------- ¶8. (C) Terence Leonard, Comptroller of Customs, still plans to charge Fredrick with customs evasion as soon as he receives evidence requested under the U.S.-St. Lucia Mutual Legal Assistance Treaty (MLAT) (ref A). Although a successful conviction might merely result in a fine, Leonard hopes this would be enough to discredit Fredrick and block his rise to power. Given Fredrick's suspected ties to known narcotraffickers and possible involvement in money laundering, his rise to power is worrisome to many observers (ref B). According to the Office of International Affairs in the Department of Justice, the evidence requested under the MLAT will likely be delivered to St. Lucia by the end of June. However, if Fredrick becomes prime minister before the end of June, the customs evasions case would likely be derailed. GILROY