C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 000749

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA/CAR-COLLINS
ADDIS ABABA FOR ANTHONY FISHER
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DOJ FOR OIA-ANDREW GENTEIN
DHS/ICE FOR MICHAEL LAPORE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/07/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR AORC OVIP KSUM KJUS KTIA ST XL
SUBJECT: ST. LUCIA CABINET RESHUFFLE, A STEP TOWARD A NEW
PRIME MINISTER

REF: A. BRIDGETOWN 669

B. BRIDGETOWN 49

Classified By: CDA Mary Ellen T. Gilroy for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: On June 6, St. Lucia Prime Minister Sir John
Compton reshuffled his cabinet, firing Foreign Minister Rufus
Bousquet, demoting Home Affairs Minister Keith Mondesir, and
giving their portfolios to Acting Prime Minister Stephenson
King. Given Compton's health problems, it is widely believed
that this is the first step toward his retirement that could
occur around the start of this month's Caribbean Conference
in Washington. With King, Minister for Social Transformation
Lenard Montoute, and Housing Minister Richard Fredrick as
possible successors, it is uncertain who will head the St.
Lucian delegation at the Washington Conference; but for the
moment, official St. Lucian communication indicates King as
leading the delegation. The Comptroller of Customs may still
charge Fredrick with customs fraud. This could impede
Fredrick's aspirations to the top job, but the case hinges on
evidence requested through the U.S.-St. Lucia Mutual Legal
Assistance Treaty that may arrive too late to make a
difference in the prime minister race. END SUMMARY.

BOUSQUET OUT, MONDESIR DEMOTED, KING OVERWHELMED
-------------- ---


2. (U) On June 6, Prime Minister Sir John Compton fired
Foreign Minister Rufus Bousquet as part of a cabinet
reshuffle. This reshuffle may be the first step toward PM
Compton's retirement due to health reasons. Changes in the
cabinet are as follows:

-- Compton continues to serve as prime minister, but retains

no other portfolios.

-- Stephenson King will continue to serve as Acting Prime
Minister and now heads a superministry of Finance (including
International Financial Services), External Affairs, Home
Affairs, National Security, Labour, and Information and
Broadcasting. He is no longer Minister for Health.

-- FM Bousquet was fired and no longer serves in the cabinet.
He continues to sit as a member of parliament.

-- Keith Mondesir was demoted and lost the Home Affairs and
National Security portfolios. He is now Minister for
Physical Planning and National Mobilization.

-- Edmund Estephane is the new Minister for Health.

-- Tessa Mangal now serves as a junior minister under King,
with responsibility for Information and Broadcasting.

-- All other appointments remain unchanged, including Richard
Fredrick as Minister for Housing, Urban Renewal, and Local
Government.

FREDRICK MAY LEAD A THREE-WAY RACE
--------------


3. (C) Minister for Social Transformation, Lenard "Spider"
Montoute, told PolOff on June 6 that PM Compton will likely
retire "in two weeks." Other sources have also reported this
potential timeline. According to Montoute, Compton will
probably choose King as his successor, but King lacks cabinet
support. Another source confirmed this, stating that no one
in the cabinet trusts King because he assisted Compton in
planning the cabinet reshuffle without discussing the plans
with other cabinet members.


4. (C) Montoute also admitted that his chances of becoming
prime minister have decreased significantly. Montoute, who
recently commanded considerable public support, made two
crucial missteps while serving as Acting Prime Minister for a
week early in June. First, Montoute publicly stated that the
cabinet requested Compton's medical records to determine how
the government should move forward. This statement made the

cabinet appear disrespectful and overeager to oust Compton
from power. The statement also made Montoute look too
ambitious. Second, Montoute made a political blunder when he
stated that whoever becomes prime minister should seek a
fresh mandate from the people. Knowing that an election
would ensure victory for the opposition St. Lucia Labour
Party (SLP), SLP leader and former Prime Minister Dr. Kenny
Anthony quickly agreed publicly. Montoute recanted his
statement clarifying that he meant a new prime minister would
eventually need to seek a new mandate. However, these
mistakes may be sufficient to end the short-term climb of
this young politician.


5. (C) If neither King nor Montoute gain the support of the
cabinet, Fredrick, who is suspected of ties to
narcotraffickers and money launderers, may be the only leader
left standing. Although recent public animosity against
Fredrick's role in the cabinet coup temporarily dampened his
political ambitions, Montoute said Fredrick is resurfacing in
the leadership race. Fredrick has kept a low public profile
since the April 30 coup, and the public animosity against him
is slowly ebbing away. More importantly, he is maneuvering
within the party, according to Montoute. Fredrick is
independently wealthy and spreads his wealth liberally to
increase his support within the cabinet. According to
Embassy sources, Fredrick funded the campaigns of nearly all
of the current cabinet members in the December 2006 elections.

COMMENT: WHO WILL MEET PRESIDENT BUSH?
--------------


6. (C) Although Compton seems to be behind the recent cabinet
changes, there is little doubt in the minds of St. Lucians
that Compton's retirement is imminent. He made his first
television appearance on June 4 and reportedly looked frail.
Rumors of liver cancer have also surfaced. After his trip to
see Compton in New York, Montoute told PolOff that, having
seen his mother suffer from cancer, he believed Compton to be
suffering from cancer as well.


7. (C) Little from this six-month United Workers Party
administration has been predictable, and choosing a new prime
minister will likely be no different. Although Acting Prime
Minister King is currently scheduled to attend the Caribbean
Conference, it is just as possible that St. Lucia may appoint
a new prime minister days before the Conference.

COMMENT CONTINUED: INHIBITING FREDRICK'S AMBITION
-------------- --------------


8. (C) Terence Leonard, Comptroller of Customs, still plans
to charge Fredrick with customs evasion as soon as he
receives evidence requested under the U.S.-St. Lucia Mutual
Legal Assistance Treaty (MLAT) (ref A). Although a
successful conviction might merely result in a fine, Leonard
hopes this would be enough to discredit Fredrick and block
his rise to power. Given Fredrick's suspected ties to known
narcotraffickers and possible involvement in money
laundering, his rise to power is worrisome to many observers
(ref B). According to the Office of International Affairs in
the Department of Justice, the evidence requested under the
MLAT will likely be delivered to St. Lucia by the end of
June. However, if Fredrick becomes prime minister before the
end of June, the customs evasions case would likely be
derailed.
GILROY