BARBADOS PM ARTHUR'S CABINET

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 000518

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA/CAR
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/18/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR BB XL
SUBJECT: BARBADOS PM ARTHUR'S CABINET

Classified By: CDA Mary Ellen T. Gilroy for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (U) SUMMARY: Prime Minister Owen Arthur, Barbados' most
popular politician, is well positioned to win an
unprecedented fourth term in the next parliamentary election,
which is expected later in 2007 or in 2008. He will run on
his solid record of achievement over the past 12 years,
supported by a strong cabinet team that includes many proven
political operatives and rising stars. END SUMMARY.

ELECTION TIMING UNCLEAR
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2. (U) Prior to the Cricket World Cup (CWC),the
conventional wisdom considered it almost inevitable that
Barbados' next parliamentary elections would take place later
in 2007, even though they are not constitutionally mandated
until 2008. Prime Minister Owen Arthur holds a commanding
lead in public opinion polls, Barbados' economy is growing at
a respectable clip, and he has assembled a strong team to
contest the next elections. Nevertheless, with the CWC
generally proving to be a disappointment for the region,
speculation is rife that PM Arthur may seek to put a safe
distance between the CWC and the elections, so that he does
not have to face the voters freshly disillusioned by the
region's poor CWC showing.

A GOOD RECORD AND A STRONG TEAM
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3. (U) When he does call the elections, PM Arthur will
contest them with an experienced team, well-tested during the
12 years it has been in power, and an impressive record of
economic growth and political stability during his
premiership. The opposition has charged, however, that PM
Arthur's record is not as solid as it would appear because
most Barbadians continue to cite in public opinion polls high
costs of living and housing as their top concerns. Both
sides will therefore seek to run on PM Arthur's record, but
naturally with very different interpretations thereof.


4. (U) PM Arthur's cabinet includes a number of prominent,
experienced, and charismatic politicians who will also be a
formidable campaign team in the next election. While critics
have charged that after 12 years in power, PM Arthur's team
has lost its energy and imagination, the opposition has so
far failed to present an alternative that Barbadian voters
would be willing to trust. Barbadians may feel that PM
Arthur and his government have failed in addressing some of
their major concerns, but polling consistently suggests that
they are not willing to cast their lot with the opposition
just yet.

THE "POWER PUFF" FACTOR
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5. (C) While short profiles of key cabinet members are
included below in para 7, three members of PM Arthur's
cabinet, dubbed the "Power Puff Girls" by political
commentators, deserve a special mention. Deputy Prime
Minister Mia Mottley, Foreign Minister Dame Billie Miller,
and Energy Minister Elizabeth Thompson are indisputably
Barbados' most successful female politicians. They control
key positions in PM Arthur's cabinet and are usually at the
forefront of his major initiatives. This trio of powerful
women set the BLP apart from the opposition Democratic Labour
Party (DLP),which fielded few female candidates in past
elections and currently has no female members of parliament.
The trio's appeal, however, did not escape the DLP's notice.
In the next election, the DLP plans to field four female
candidates, and the opposition leader David Thompson has
pledged that, if elected, he would include at least one woman
in his cabinet.


6. (C) In contrast, the BLP's female leaders seem to be
losing some of their stature. The trio will be weakened with
the planned retirement of Dame Billie, who has announced that
she will not stand in the next election. While Mottley and
Thompson will likely continue playing important roles in the
next PM Arthur administration, should he be reelected, the
BLP has not managed to put forward a suitably experienced and
impressive female candidate to take the place of Dame Billie.
Some commentators have also noted that the BLP "Power Puff
Girls" lost some of their influence during a February 2006
cabinet shake-up, in which PM Arthur moved Mottley from the
powerful Attorney General job to the lower-profile Ministry
of Economic Affairs and Development. PM Arthur, however,
defended the transfer by arguing that Mottley would have an
opportunity to broaden her experience in economic matters.

KEY CABINET PROFILES
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7. (C) Profiles of key cabinet members:

Owen Arthur, Prime Minister and Minister of Finance: PM
Arthur is a skilled and popular politician, who will lead his
BLP into the next election and who would serve an
unprecedented fourth term as premier should the BLP win.
Under his leadership, Barbados has enjoyed 12 years of
political stability, steady economic growth, and social
progress. Like other leaders in the region, PM Arthur weighs
Caribbean solidarity and national sovereignty as important
factors in charting Barbados' foreign policy. For these
reasons, his government strongly disagreed with U.S. policies
in Iraq and Haiti. On the other hand, PM Arthur has resisted
Venezuelan encroachment into the region and worked closely
with President Bush to derail Chavez's disruptive agenda at
the 2005 Summit of the Americas in Mar del Plata. He has
been a strong proponent of economic integration in the
Caribbean region and has lead responsibility within the
Caribbean Community (CARICOM) for the implementation of the
CARICOM Single Market and Economy (CSME).

Mia Amor Mottley, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of
Economic Affairs & Development: Mottley is generally
considered to be PM Arthur's anointed successor, although
some have speculated that since the February 2006 cabinet
shake-up, her star may be shining less brightly. She joined
PM Arthur's cabinet in 1994 and became Barbados' youngest
minister at the age of 29. She is a dynamic and charismatic
politician and a powerful speaker. A trained lawyer, she is
famous for her combativeness and acerbic tongue, prompting
some observers to question her ability to moderate her
sharpness to gain the top job. Mottley is widely believed to
be gay, which may also hinder her aspirations.

Dame Billie A. Miller, Minister of Foreign Affairs and
Foreign Trade and Senior Minister: More than any other
member of the current cabinet, Dame Billie fits the "elder
statesman" role. She has been a powerful voice for Barbados
and the region on the international scene. During more than
30 years in politics, she has held various ministerial
portfolios. She is also a strong advocate for the city of
Bridgetown, the constituency she represents in parliament,
and claims credit for the current revitalization of the
city's downtown and waterfront areas. Last fall, Dame Billie
announced that she will not run in the next election, but
promised to remain active in politics.

Henrietta Elizabeth Thompson, Minister of Energy and the
Environment: "Liz" Thompson, as she is popularly known, has
headed the important Energy Ministry since 2006. She has
been charged with developing Barbados' energy resources,
including planned off-shore projects. Thompson was first
elected to parliament in 1994 and served as Minister of
Health and Environment from 1994-99. Disagreements with PM
Arthur forced her departure from the cabinet in 1999, but she
returned two years later to run the Ministry of Housing and
Lands. In the past, she has worked as a lawyer and newspaper
reporter.

Dale D. Marshall, Attorney General and Minister of Home
Affairs: In the February 2006 cabinet reshuffle, Dale
Marshall succeeded Mia Mottley as Attorney General. He was
concurrently appointed as Minister of Home Affairs.
Previously, Marshall chaired the Board of the National
Housing Corporation, the Urban Development Commission, and
the Barbados Tourism Authority. He was appointed to the
Barbados Senate in January 1999, serving there until April

2003.

Clyde A. Mascoll, Minister of State, Ministry of Finance:
Mascoll holds the distinction of being the first--and
only--opposition leader to have crossed the parliamentary
floor to join the government, which Mascoll did in 2006.
Mascoll's unprecedented step followed a protracted struggle
over the DLP leadership with current opposition leader David
Thompson. Mascoll was rewarded for his trouble with a
cabinet-level job in the Ministry of Finance, a posting
consistent with his academic training and professional
experience in finance and economics. Although Mascoll has
kept a relatively low profile since joining the cabinet, he
will likely attract much more attention during the next
election, when many observers wonder whether he will be able
to defend his seat despite--or thanks to--his political
change of heart.

Reverend Joseph J.S. Atherley, Minister of State, Prime
Minister's office: Atherley, an ordained minister, has
become the voice of PM Arthur's government since his
appointment to the cabinet in February 2006. Although he has
been charged with the culture portfolio, he appears
frequently at public events, speaking on everything from
education and health to family values and matters of faith.
Prior to assuming his cabinet post, Atherly served as a
parliamentary secretary in the Ministry of Home Affairs.
OURISMAN