ST. LUCIA - PIERRE REACHING FOR SLP HELM

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 000464 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA/CAR SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/03/2017 TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL SL XL SUBJECT: ST. LUCIA - PIERRE REACHING FOR SLP HELM REF: BRIDGETOWN 195 Classified By: CDA Mary Ellen T. Gilroy for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: In a private conversation on March 30, deputy leader of the opposition St. Lucia Labour Party (SLP) Philip Pierre shared his views on the future of his party and evaluated his potential competitors in the ruling United Workers Party (UWP). Pierre indirectly admitted that he plans to challenge Kenny Anthony for leadership of the SLP at the party's October convention. He described the current Minister for Economic Affairs, Ausbert D'Auvergne, as well-positioned to succeed PM Compton, but noted that Senator D'Auvergne was unlikely to be electable, thus weakening his leadership prospects. END SUMMARY. PIERRE ON THE RISE -------------- ¶2. (C) A savvy politician, deputy leader of the opposition SLP and former deputy prime minister Philip J. Pierre is looking to usurp the reins of leadership at the party's October convention. When asked who could challenge former prime minister Dr. Kenny Anthony for leadership of the SLP, Pierre stated emphatically that he is the only possible competitor and later intimated that he is planning to make such a challenge. He clarified that Dr. Anthony would remain in politics if he successfully retains leadership of the party, but it was clear from the conversation that Pierre intends to and believes he can take the mantle from Anthony. AN HEIR WITHOUT A SEAT -------------- ¶3. (C) Pierre was also happy to share his views on the ruling party and its current state of leadership. Although Pierre agreed that Prime Minister Sir John Compton retains firm control over both the UWP and the government, he explained that intra-party factions are starting to reassert their influence. For example, when asked if PM Compton will follow through with his promise to address campaign finance reform, Pierre stated it will not happen because too many players in the UWP will not allow it, an allusion to SLP claims that drug money financed UWP's campaign through candidate Richard Frederick. As such, according to Pierre, Compton is increasingly handing responsibility to trusted supporters, such as long-time UWP member Stephenson King. To date, King is the only minister to serve as acting prime minister in Sir John's absence. (Note: The first time PM Compton left St. Lucia since retaking power, he refused to name an acting prime minister. Compton claimed he could maintain his role as PM because he was only a phone call away. End Note.) However, Pierre characterized King as "dull," suggesting he would be unable to sustain a leadership role. Lenard "Spider" Montoute, deputy political leader, is another Compton supporter and contender for a leadership role. However, Pierre observed that, even though Spider proved a strong organizer in the last election, he is not intelligent enough to be a true leader. ¶4. (C) Senator Ausbert d'Auvergne, Minister for Economic Affairs, Economic Planning, National Development, and Public Service, has emerged as PM Compton's current right-hand man. Resident British Commissioner Kelvin Green commented that d'Auvergne is maneuvering behind the scenes on Compton's behalf and took responsibility for preparing the vast majority of the budget this year. (Note: The government is planning to announce the budget on April 17. When Green asked where St. Lucia would get the funds it needs for all the projects promised, d'Auvergne said that they would pick up some of the money "floating around" from the European Union or Caribbean Development Bank. End Note.) Both Pierre and Green agreed that d'Auvergne was a likely successor to Sir John, but that he would have difficulty winning a parliamentary contest given his reputed involvement in financial scandals during the previous UWP administration. ¶5. (C) When asked about flashy UWP newcomer Richard Frederick, Pierre replied that Frederick's fame will fizzle within the next year because he will be unable to fulfill all the promises made to and expectations of his electorate. COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) Given PM Compton's age, 81, speculation about potential successors is commonplace. During the December 2006 election, Frederick, whose charisma and generosity with campaign funds boosted the fortunes of the then-underdog UWP party, was seen as a logical successor. However, Compton perceives Frederick as a threat to his control and possibly to his good relations with the United States. In February PM Compton assured DCM Gilroy that he had taken steps to keep Frederick from taking a leadership position in the UWP (reftel). In recent months Frederick has kept a low profile. With Frederick at least temporarily sidelined, d'Auvergne has emerged as the candidate being groomed as Compton's successor. The only drawback is that he does not currently hold elective office. ¶7. (C) Many observers believe that a change in the opposition SLP's leadership is likely to occur long before any changes in the UWP; most analysts are surprised Anthony has maintained his position this long, given that he bears the brunt of the blame for losing the election. Come October, the SLP will likely be looking to Pierre to revive the opposition party's fortunes. OURISMAN