ST LUCIA: JOHN COMPTON'S DAUGHTER LIKELY TO WIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 001409 SIPDIS SIPDIS SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/07/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR CN TW ST XL SUBJECT: ST LUCIA: JOHN COMPTON'S DAUGHTER LIKELY TO WIN BY-ELECTION, BUT IF SHE DOESN'T... Classified By: CDA Clyde Howard for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Jeanine Compton-Rambally, daughter of former prime minister Sir John Compton, will likely win an upcoming by-election for the seat left vacant by her father's death. Although unlikely, the opposition could narrowly win the seat if the participation of two independent candidates splinters the ruling party votes. This would result in a significantly weakened ruling party relying on two disgruntled members to keep a majority. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Jeanine Compton-Rambally, a marine biologist and daughter of former prime minister Sir John Compton, is the front runner candidate for the by-election to fill Micoud North, the seat left empty by her father's death in September. Although not yet officially announced, two contacts have confirmed that the election will be during the last week of November. The Candidates -------------- ¶3. (U) Currently, four candidates are poised to compete for the coveted seat, a traditional stronghold for the ruling United Workers Party (UWP). In addition to Compton-Rambally, opposition candidate Silas Wilson of the St. Lucia Labour Party (SLP) will contest, along with independent candidates George Daniel, an economist and lecturer at Sir Arthur Lewis Community College, and Marius Wilson, previous member of parliament both as an independent and member of the UWP. Compton-Rambally narrowly beat Daniel 29 to 27 votes in an election for the candidacy conducted by the UWP's National Council. Following this vote, many Micoud citizens were rather vocal in expressing that, although the people of Micoud love former Prime Minister Compton, his daughter is not one of them while Daniel is. Jeanine to Win -------------- ¶4. (C) Many are speculating that Daniel's candidacy could upset Compton-Rambally's chance to win, allowing Silas Wilson to walk into the seat. However, one reliable political analyst countered this possibility, stating to PolOff that Compton-Rambally has three factors that will ensure success. First is the women's vote. There are currently no women members of parliament (MP),making a female victor attractive. Second, the UWP sent two of its most popular MPs to the rally announcing her candidacy: Guy Joseph and Richard Frederick, a Micoud native. Third, Compton-Rambally reminds people of her father. In addition to these factors, her being the official UWP candidate guarantees her a certain percentage of votes. According to this contact, although Daniel has a certain pocket of support, it will not be enough to upset the election. But If She Doesn't... -------------- ¶5. (C) In contrast, a political pundit and former UWP campaign manager told PolOff that the UWP does not necessarily have this election in the bag. He stated that a UWP organizer confided his fear that Daniel could upset the election in favor of the SLP. He also opined that an SLP victory would have important ramifications. First, it would illustrate a loss in UWP popularity due to the various political blunders of the last six months. Second, it would result in a potentially unstable situation for the ruling UWP. In a 17-member parliament, the UWP would hold only 10 seats, two of which are held by disgruntled party members removed from cabinet -- former foreign minister Rufus Bousquet and deputy speaker of the house Marcus Nicholas. According to this pundit, Bousquet's and Nicholas' loyalty is low enough to conceivably result in their crossing the aisle, allowing the SLP to retake government with a 9-8 majority in parliament. Comment: A Possible Return to Beijing? -------------- ¶6. (C) A UWP victory in the by-election would mean business as usual for the government. Although a longshot, an SLP victory has much greater ramifications. The power that a 10-7 parliament would give Bousquet and Nicholas cannot be underestimated. Either the UWP would have to concede to demands by these two MPs to keep them loyal or the SLP could dangle enough incentives to bring them over. If the SLP managed to temp Bousquet and Nicholas and shift the parliamentary majority to its favor, a reinstated SLP government would switch diplomatic relations from Taiwan back to China less than a year after the government formally recognized Taiwan. HOWARD