SERBIAN PRESIDENT TADIC'S VISIT TO SLOVAKIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000250

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/20/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV YI UNSC LO
SUBJECT: SERBIAN PRESIDENT TADIC'S VISIT TO SLOVAKIA


Classified By: Ambassador Rodolphe M. Vallee for reason 1.4 b
and d.


1. (C) Summary: During Serbian President Boris Tadic's April
24-25 visit to Bratislava, Slovak leaders stayed largely on
message. In private meetings they told Tadic that Slovakia
sympathizes with Serbia but it would vote with the EU. MFA
PolDir Lajcak expressed satisfaction with the visit and said
PM Fico was now prepared for follow-on meetings in Berlin
with Chancellor Merkel and in Russia with President Putin.
Lajcak requested that NATO partners not push for a strong
public statement of support for the Ahtisaari plan at the
NATO informal ministerial in Oslo, as this could cause a
political backlash in Bratislava that could threaten the GOS
commitment to vote with the EU on a Kosovo-UNSCR. End
summary.


2. (C) The visit by Serbian President Boris Tadic to Slovakia
April 24-25 was surprisingly non-controversial on the topic
of Kosovo. MFA Political Director Miroslav Lajcak briefed
Ambassadors/Charges from the U.S., UK, Germany, and France on
April 25, saying that he was very satisfied with the visit.
Foreign Minister Kubis had carefully and intensively prepared
Slovak leaders, and they largely stayed on message. Tadic
met with President Ivan Gasparovic, Prime Minister Robert
Fico, and Speaker of Parliament Pavol Paska. Lajcak said
that Tadic spoke about both Kosovo and Serbia's EU
perspective and had the same message for all three meetings.
He said Serbia could not give up territory; the Ahtisaari
plan was unacceptable; no independence (even supervised) was
acceptable; and implementing the Ahtisaari plan would lead to
destabilization. He also said Serbia did not expect Slovaks
to be "more Serb than the Serbs;" Serbia would not go to war
over Kosovo; and that he believed Slovakia would take a
position of principle, reflecting that Kosovo independence
would be a dangerous precedent.

Gasparovic: Former "Forcing Powers" Are Now Allies"
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3. (C) According to Lajcak, Gasparovic told Tadic that
Slovakia would vote in line with the rest of the EU at the UN
Security Council. He expressed hope that this fact would
have no negative effect on the historically very good
relationship between Slovakia and Serbia. He opined that a
Serbia-Kosovo confederation was no longer possible, and that
a third party would have to decide the issue, as there was no
solution acceptable to both parties. He even went so far as
to mention Munich 1938, when a group of countries "forced"
Czechoslovakia to face a decision that was unacceptable.
Those same countries are today Slovakia's allies and
strategic partners. Comment: Lajcak pointed out that
Gasparovic is very sensitive about Slovak-Hungarian claims
for autonomy in Slovakia and Hungarian claims on Slovak
territory. He has reached the conclusion that having Kosovo
remain a part of Serbia is an even more dangerous precedent
for Slovakia than independence. End Comment.

Fico and Paska: We Understand, But We're In The EU Now
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4. (C) In his meeting with Tadic, PM Fico spent only two
minutes on Kosovo. He said Slovakia understood the Serbian
position and knew Serbia could hardly take a different one.
Then he quoted the line in the resolution passed by the
Slovak Parliament that "...expects that the Government of the
Slovak Republic will seek a joint solution for the future of
the Western Balkans together with other EU member states and
with a clear perspective for integrating the countries of the
Western Balkans into the European Union."


5. (C) Paska said that although the Slovak government changed
in July 2006, there was continuity in policy toward the
Western Balkans. Slovakia understands the region, but is now
a member of the EU and therefore has commitments to uphold.
Slovakia will respect the EU position on Kosovo. Lajcak
pointed out that Paska said this in the presence of MPs from
all political parties in parliament, including the Slovak
National Party and former PM Dzurinda's party, and none
raised a voice of protest.

Next Steps: Berlin, Oslo, Moscow
--------------

6. (C) Lajcak was pleased that Slovak leaders stayed on
message, and that there were no screaming headlines on the
Kosovo issue as a result of Tadic's visit. Fico is still
convinced that the opposition (Dzurinda) is trying to push
him into isolation within the EU on Kosovo, and is determined
not to take the bait. More important, Fico does not believe
Kosovo resonates with the Slovak public. Therefore, Lajcak
expects the Merkel-Fico discussions on this issue to go well
in Berlin April 26.


7. (C) Lajcak said he was concerned that there would be a
move to get a strong statement of support for the Ahtisaari
plan out of the informal NATO ministerial in Oslo. He
requested that partner countries not push Slovakia into
taking a position on common language. Lajcak pointed out
that FM Kubis gave very clear messages in New York and
Washington the week of April 16 that Slovakia would vote with
the EU on a UNSCR. Discussions in any other forum could rile
up politicians who would like to change that stance. The MFA
believes it is therefore best to keep the debate at the UNSC
at this point.


8. (C) In discussions with Tadic's staff, Lajcak learned that
Russian FM Lavrov had reassured the Serbs that there would be
no UNSCR based on the Ahtisaari plan. Lajcak interpreted
this to mean the Russians believe that if they threaten to
veto, the U.S. and Europeans will not bring the issue to a
vote. Lajcak believes that with the extensive tutoring FM
Kubis provided Fico prior to the Tadic visit, Fico is
prepared for his May 3-4 visit to Moscow and will not change
his views. Fico will not raise the Kosovo issue, but Russia
surely will lobby. On the other hand, Putin's line with
Gasparovic had been to present Russia's point of view but
leave Slovakia to make its own decision, so the same tactic
might be used with Fico. In any case, FM Kubis would be in
the meetings and could "limit any damage" if necessary.

Dzurinda as Dogged as Ever
--------------

9. (C) At the reception hosted by the Serbian Embassy in
honor of Tadic, former FM Mikulas Dzurinda reportedly had an
enthusiastic discussion with Tadic. Dzurinda encouraged
Tadic to fight and promised support. Lajcak requested that
contact group embassies not give up on efforts to persuade
Dzurinda, including through European People's Party channels.
The Ambassador will take a bike ride with Dzurinda April 26
and will raise Kosovo.
VALLEE