SERBIAN PRESIDENT TADIC'S VISIT TO SLOVAKIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000250 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/20/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV YI UNSC LO SUBJECT: SERBIAN PRESIDENT TADIC'S VISIT TO SLOVAKIA Classified By: Ambassador Rodolphe M. Vallee for reason 1.4 b and d. ¶1. (C) Summary: During Serbian President Boris Tadic's April 24-25 visit to Bratislava, Slovak leaders stayed largely on message. In private meetings they told Tadic that Slovakia sympathizes with Serbia but it would vote with the EU. MFA PolDir Lajcak expressed satisfaction with the visit and said PM Fico was now prepared for follow-on meetings in Berlin with Chancellor Merkel and in Russia with President Putin. Lajcak requested that NATO partners not push for a strong public statement of support for the Ahtisaari plan at the NATO informal ministerial in Oslo, as this could cause a political backlash in Bratislava that could threaten the GOS commitment to vote with the EU on a Kosovo-UNSCR. End summary. ¶2. (C) The visit by Serbian President Boris Tadic to Slovakia April 24-25 was surprisingly non-controversial on the topic of Kosovo. MFA Political Director Miroslav Lajcak briefed Ambassadors/Charges from the U.S., UK, Germany, and France on April 25, saying that he was very satisfied with the visit. Foreign Minister Kubis had carefully and intensively prepared Slovak leaders, and they largely stayed on message. Tadic met with President Ivan Gasparovic, Prime Minister Robert Fico, and Speaker of Parliament Pavol Paska. Lajcak said that Tadic spoke about both Kosovo and Serbia's EU perspective and had the same message for all three meetings. He said Serbia could not give up territory; the Ahtisaari plan was unacceptable; no independence (even supervised) was acceptable; and implementing the Ahtisaari plan would lead to destabilization. He also said Serbia did not expect Slovaks to be "more Serb than the Serbs;" Serbia would not go to war over Kosovo; and that he believed Slovakia would take a position of principle, reflecting that Kosovo independence would be a dangerous precedent. Gasparovic: Former "Forcing Powers" Are Now Allies" -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) According to Lajcak, Gasparovic told Tadic that Slovakia would vote in line with the rest of the EU at the UN Security Council. He expressed hope that this fact would have no negative effect on the historically very good relationship between Slovakia and Serbia. He opined that a Serbia-Kosovo confederation was no longer possible, and that a third party would have to decide the issue, as there was no solution acceptable to both parties. He even went so far as to mention Munich 1938, when a group of countries "forced" Czechoslovakia to face a decision that was unacceptable. Those same countries are today Slovakia's allies and strategic partners. Comment: Lajcak pointed out that Gasparovic is very sensitive about Slovak-Hungarian claims for autonomy in Slovakia and Hungarian claims on Slovak territory. He has reached the conclusion that having Kosovo remain a part of Serbia is an even more dangerous precedent for Slovakia than independence. End Comment. Fico and Paska: We Understand, But We're In The EU Now -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) In his meeting with Tadic, PM Fico spent only two minutes on Kosovo. He said Slovakia understood the Serbian position and knew Serbia could hardly take a different one. Then he quoted the line in the resolution passed by the Slovak Parliament that "...expects that the Government of the Slovak Republic will seek a joint solution for the future of the Western Balkans together with other EU member states and with a clear perspective for integrating the countries of the Western Balkans into the European Union." ¶5. (C) Paska said that although the Slovak government changed in July 2006, there was continuity in policy toward the Western Balkans. Slovakia understands the region, but is now a member of the EU and therefore has commitments to uphold. Slovakia will respect the EU position on Kosovo. Lajcak pointed out that Paska said this in the presence of MPs from all political parties in parliament, including the Slovak National Party and former PM Dzurinda's party, and none raised a voice of protest. Next Steps: Berlin, Oslo, Moscow -------------- ¶6. (C) Lajcak was pleased that Slovak leaders stayed on message, and that there were no screaming headlines on the Kosovo issue as a result of Tadic's visit. Fico is still convinced that the opposition (Dzurinda) is trying to push him into isolation within the EU on Kosovo, and is determined not to take the bait. More important, Fico does not believe Kosovo resonates with the Slovak public. Therefore, Lajcak expects the Merkel-Fico discussions on this issue to go well in Berlin April 26. ¶7. (C) Lajcak said he was concerned that there would be a move to get a strong statement of support for the Ahtisaari plan out of the informal NATO ministerial in Oslo. He requested that partner countries not push Slovakia into taking a position on common language. Lajcak pointed out that FM Kubis gave very clear messages in New York and Washington the week of April 16 that Slovakia would vote with the EU on a UNSCR. Discussions in any other forum could rile up politicians who would like to change that stance. The MFA believes it is therefore best to keep the debate at the UNSC at this point. ¶8. (C) In discussions with Tadic's staff, Lajcak learned that Russian FM Lavrov had reassured the Serbs that there would be no UNSCR based on the Ahtisaari plan. Lajcak interpreted this to mean the Russians believe that if they threaten to veto, the U.S. and Europeans will not bring the issue to a vote. Lajcak believes that with the extensive tutoring FM Kubis provided Fico prior to the Tadic visit, Fico is prepared for his May 3-4 visit to Moscow and will not change his views. Fico will not raise the Kosovo issue, but Russia surely will lobby. On the other hand, Putin's line with Gasparovic had been to present Russia's point of view but leave Slovakia to make its own decision, so the same tactic might be used with Fico. In any case, FM Kubis would be in the meetings and could "limit any damage" if necessary. Dzurinda as Dogged as Ever -------------- ¶9. (C) At the reception hosted by the Serbian Embassy in honor of Tadic, former FM Mikulas Dzurinda reportedly had an enthusiastic discussion with Tadic. Dzurinda encouraged Tadic to fight and promised support. Lajcak requested that contact group embassies not give up on efforts to persuade Dzurinda, including through European People's Party channels. The Ambassador will take a bike ride with Dzurinda April 26 and will raise Kosovo. VALLEE