UPDATE ON SLOVAKIA'S KOSOVO DEBATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRATISLAVA 000146 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/17/2012 TAGS: PREL PGOV YI KO LO SUBJECT: UPDATE ON SLOVAKIA'S KOSOVO DEBATE Classified By: Ambassador Vallee for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary and action recommendation: In separate conversations, President Gasparovic, the International Secretary of PM Fico's Smer party, and a Christian Democrat SIPDIS MP told us that Slovakia will not be outside the European mainstream on Kosovo. Nonetheless, in a March 12 press appearance with visiting Serbian DefMin Stankovic, a seemingly off-the-reservation DefMin Kasicky stated that Slovakia opposed the right of a national minority to create a state in Kosovo. MFA PolDir Lajcak (reached in Serbia) was surprised by the comment and said that FM Kubis was giving a completely different message during his March 12 meetings in Belgrade. Despite plans for German Chancellor Merkel and British PM Blair to approach Fico on the sidelines of the European Council meeting, FM Kubis told the Ambassador no such discussions took place. Comment and recommendation: Our European partners must be persuaded to help carry the water on Kosovo with the Slovaks; we should not be the only ones with this message, especially in light of Fico's upcoming visit to Moscow. End summary. President: Slovakia Will be in European Mainstream -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) President Ivan Gasparovic March 12 made it clear to the Ambassador that he does not want to see Slovakia outside the mainstream on the Kosovo issue and said Slovakia would be with the consensus European position. Gasparovic took credit for delaying a parliamentary vote on Kosovo through his party consultations, and for watering down the Slovak National Party (SNS) resolution before it was introduced. He stressed that the security of Europe was a more important issue than the political posturing currently going on in Slovakia and said he would continue to work with all parties to arrive at a consensus. Gasparovic does not believe there is a majority in parliament that would vote to bind FM Kubis, hands. ¶3. (C) Asked whether a mainstream position means Slovakia will not abstain on the ultimate UNSC resolution, the President said Slovakia would abstain only if it did not harm the chances of the resolution passing. Gasparovic asked how hard the Russians were working the Africans on the UNSC. The Ambassador responded that EU unity and a yes vote by Slovakia are vitally important in influencing the Russians and the Africans. The President repeated an earlier comment that in the end the US and Russia would strike some deal and nobody else really mattered. We will continue to reinforce the message that Slovakia needs to vote in favor of a resolution. KDH: We Won't be Anti-American or Anti-EU on Kosovo -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) MP Vladimir Palko, who is currently running for the leadership of the Christian Democratic Movement (KDH) against incumbent chairman Pavol Hrusovsky, told the Ambassador March 12 that his biggest objection to Ahtisaari,s plan is that it would create a Muslim state in Europe. Palko said it would be hard to backtrack on many years of a KDH position calling for no change in Serbia,s borders but that "KDH would do nothing to be anti-American or anti-EU on the matter." Smer: We Won't Let "Slavic Pride" Ruin Our Reputation -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Poloff accompanied seven Slovak MPs for a two-day tour of USEU, SHAPE and NATO on March 8-9, where Kosovo was the dominant topic of conversation. After several meetings in which representatives of SNS and the opposition Slovak Democratic and Christian Union (SDKU) vied to be the most hostile to Kosovo independence, the MPs met with U.S. PermRep Nuland. Ambassador Nuland impressed the delegates with arguments about the "least-bad" option, the need for European and trans-Atlantic unity and the comparison of crimes committed by the KLA to those committed by Serbia under Milosovic's presidency. Afterwards, Smer MP and International Secretary Juraj Horvath told poloff privately, "It is clear SIPDIS what the decision will be, and Smer will not let our partners (read: SNS) ruin Slovakia's reputation for the sake of Slavic pride." Poloff asked if Smer was not concerned that SDKU would continue trying to score political points with the Kosovo issue. Horvath responded that Smer's government is young and they can withstand the pressure. "We know what our voters really care about (and don't care about)." Major Deviation by DefMin Kasicky -------------- ¶6. (C) Despite these positive signals, Defense Minister BRATISLAVA 00000146 002.2 OF 002 Frantisek Kasicky, at a joint press conference with visiting Serbian Minister of Defense Zoran Stankovic March 12, stated, "It is not possible to support a development resulting in a national minority, which has its own mother state, having the right to create another state." PolDir Miroslav Lajcak, who is in Belgrade with FM Jan Kubis, told PolEc Chief he had not seen the reports of Kasicky's comments (nor had others in the MFA when we forwarded the wire service story),but that Kubis in Belgrade was delivering a completely different message. A frustrated Lajcak sighed, "You can take this as an example of the coordination that exists in this government." Kubis was heading into his final meeting with President Tadic when we spoke with Lajcak. We will report his reaction septel. Kubis will also meet with Stankovic on March 13, when MFA contacts tell us the media outcome will be better. (Comment: We see Kasicky's remarks as off the reservation, rather than some political tactic to please all sides.) Euros Drop the Ball -------------- ¶7. (C) We had been told by German and UK diplomats in Bratislava that both Chancellor Merkel and PM Blair might have "pull-asides" or "brush-bys" with PM Fico during the March 8-9 European Council meeting. FM Kubis told the Ambassador that no such bilateral discussion took place. Lajcak (protect) bemoaned to DCM this lost opportunity to influence his government. He recommended the upcoming GYMNICH meeting in Berlin as an opportunity for the UK and Germany to make the case to Fico. Comment and action recommendation: Intense U.S. diplomatic efforts to convince Slovakia to adhere to "European unity" on Kosovo have started to turn political opinion, but it is clear from remarks like Kasicky's that the battle is not yet won. It is necessary to keep pressure on our European partners to carry water on the issue as well. It is especially crucial to shore up Fico before his April 3-4 official visit to Moscow. We recommend that Washington take another run at our European partners. End comment. At Least Some in the Media Get It -------------- ¶8. (U) In a commentary for the daily Sme, columnist Marian Lesko made our case well: "Talks between Serbs and Kosovar Albanians have reached a dead end, as neither group is willing to alter its original position. This means that the topic of Kosovo will return to Slovak politics a month after it left it. Let us hope in a different form. "The competition between Slovak political parties to see who could be more loudly against the proposal to give Kosovo limited autonomy without Serbian agreement had a hysterical undertone. Slovak politicians were unable to judge the matter on its merits, but only according to their own interests. They treated the Kosovo question as though they were deciding on autonomy for ethnic Hungarians in southern Slovakia. They were too arrogant and selfish to understand that it wasn't about them, but about whether people will continue to die in the Balkans. "Most EU and NATO states understand that there is no good solution for Kosovo, only bad and worse, and that leaving Kosovo's status up in the air until an uncontrollable 'solution' comes along is worse that giving it autonomy now despite opposition from Serbia. The Ahtisaari plan goes to the UN Security Council before the end of March, with a vote to be held in June. Slovak politicians have until then to see if they can stop thinking about Kosovo 'in Slovak'." VALLEE