BRAZIL'S FOREIGN MINISTER DISCUSSES GLOBAL,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 BRASILIA 002217 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/FO FOR A/S SHANNON, WHA/BSC, NEA/FO STATE PASS USTR FOR KATE DUCKWORTH NSC FOR TOMASULO TREASURY FOR JHOEK SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/OLAC USDOC ALSO FOR 3134/USFCS/OIO USAID FOR LAC/AA E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV ETRD KPAL OVIP EFIN AMGT VE BL AR BR SUBJECT: BRAZIL'S FOREIGN MINISTER DISCUSSES GLOBAL, REGIONAL AND BILATERAL ISSUES Classified By: AMBASSADOR CLIFFORD M. SOBEL; REASONS: 1.4 (B, D) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) In a November 30 meeting in Sao Paulo, Ambassador Sobel and Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim discussed a range of global, regional and bilateral issues. On the region's most pressing issues - such as political developments in Venezuela and Bolivia, and Colombia-Venezuela bilateral tensions - Amorim called for moderation and dialogue, but shied away from committing Brazil to play a role as mediator. On global issues, Amorim voiced optimism on the Annapolis Conference and the prospects for a deal on agriculture to push the Doha trade negotiations forward. As for the range of bilateral issues that are on the table, the meeting revealed considerable agreement on such matters as: the tax treaty, recently passed legislation on the sale of diplomatic property and aviation negotiations. In addition to making suggestions for Secretary Rice's upcoming visit to Brazil, Amorim indicated a willingness to meet with senior USG officials traveling to Brazil in the coming months. -------------- -------------- Venezuela: Amorim fears turmoil with victory of 'No' -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) With two days before the December 2 referendum in Venezuela, the Ambassador asked Amorim his view of the likely outcome. Amorim responded that according to the GOB's analysis, the 'yes' (pro-Chavez) was likely to win by a slight margin. He noted that the victory of the 'yes' is probably "the best result because I'm more fearful if the 'no' is victorious. I think there could be a lot of turmoil." In this regard, Amorim referenced - but did not elaborate on - Chavez' recent statements about having to rethink his own future and that of the Bolivarian Revolution in the event of a loss in the referendum. The Ambassador solicited Amorim's views on the likelihood that the vote tabulations would be transparent in the absence of international observers. Amorim admitted that he didn't �A;know, and regretted that there would be no OAS presence. Looking at his advisors, Amorim said, "this is something we should have thought about earlier." (Note: Given the close results of the referendum, post will continue to engage MRE counterparts on this issue to gauge the level of concern. End Note) -------------- Bolivia: GOB reluctant to mediate -------------- ¶3. (C) In responding to the Ambassador's mention of the recent violence in Bolivia surrounding the reconvening of the Constituent Assembly, Amorim responded that the GOB is following the developments with "interest and concern" but that it "is not easy to see what to do." He noted that the current violence has been perpetrated mostly by the opposition. He regretted the opposition's decision to boycott the Assembly. The Ambassador asked if the GOB had any reaction to the decision to move forward in voting for the new Constitution without the participation of the opposition. Amorim admitted that "this was not a good approach" but on the other hand emphasized that the Bolivian BRASILIA 00002217 002 OF 005 government is assuring that the opposition Assembly members have nothing to fear. In responding to the Ambassador's question on whether the retraction of the draft Constitution is on the table, Amorim stated that a complete retraction is "very difficult" although he noted that as a face-saving measure, some articles could be revisited. (Note: subsequent media reports contradict this prediction. End Note) ¶4. (C) Amorim said that the challenge is to convince people that dialogue is better than confrontation. He emphasized that the GOB "is on the side of moderation and dialogue." He warned against the opposition acting "in a putschist way or threatening to secede." Amorim noted that the GOB has been approached by Bolivia's opposition, "but we have to be careful. Mediation is not something you go around loosely offering." (Note: Amorim inserted a passing reference to the bilateral tensions between Colombia and Venezuela, and indicated that Brazil is not keen to play a mediator role in this situation either, as has been speculated in the press. End Note) Amorim expressed his hope that Lula's upcoming visit to Bolivia "and what it symbolized" will help alleviate the crisis. On the other hand, Amorim also mentioned that Lula is reluctant to meet with the opposition during that trip. Amorim warned that comparisons with the circumstances surrounding the downfall of former Bolivian president Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada are not well-founded, as Morales - unlike Sanchez de Lozada - still enjoys the support of the majority of the Bolivian population. (Note: Sanchez de Lozada resigned mid-term in October 2003 following weeks of civil unrest and protests, involving now-President Evo Morales. End Note) ¶5. (C) The Ambassador asked Amorim for his views on the extent of Venezuela's involvement in Bolivia. Amorim responded that there is an "obvious relationship, but it is hard to say how much influence." He also noted that while Chavez may have "hopes or illusions that he can operate independently because of oil" Evo's situation is different and he would never, for example, attack the King of Spain (as Chavez did during the recent Ibero-American Summit in Santiago). -------------- Doha: a new roadmap on agriculture? -------------- ¶6. (C) The Ambassador noted with appreciation Amorim's comments following his November 26 meeting with USTR Ambassador Susan Schwab. Amorim recognized that he was making an effort in his remarks to highlight the "positive climate" despite negotiating hard issues. He referenced a new phase in the Doha talks that will come soon, which coincides with press interviews he gave earlier in the day predicting ministerial level talks on agriculture in February. In discussing an eventual new text on agriculture that he expected for late January, Amorim admitted that he "doesn,t know what it will look like" but emphasized that the U.S. and Brazil have several "coincidental interests." Amorim listed market access, quota calculations and tariff caps, and said there was partial convergence on export competition. ¶7. (C) Amorim stated his belief that "If we have a reasonable result in agriculture, there could be a good outcome." In referring to the position Brazil took during BRASILIA 00002217 003 OF 005 the October talks in Geneva regarding the percentage of special products that can be exempt from tariff lines, Amorim called for a "non-governmental approach on flexibilities." In defining what he meant by that, Amorim reiterated the position that "Mercosur -as a customs union made up of developing countries - still has asymmetries. We don't all have the same 10 percent. Everyone will have to put his or her touch on the documents, and there is no reason to be dogmatic on some issues and flexible on others." ¶8. (C) The Ambassador inquired on Brazil's outlook on Argentina vis--vis president-elect Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner. Amorim shied away from the question, but noted that president-elect Kirchner "is a female president, and all countries like to have their value and worth." He mentioned recent press reports coming out of Argentina that "are less than encouraging" in that they argue that an agriculture trade deal is not urgent "as the price of commodities will be high for some time." He then suggested that Ambassador Schwab make a trip to Argentina as soon as possible. (Comment: Amorim's comments about "value and worth" were unclear but perhaps he was pointing to a potentially stronger stance concerning agriculture. In suggesting that Ambassador Schwab visit soon, Amorim may believe that she can moderate the president-elect's negotiating line on agriculture and at the same time make Argentina less dependant on Brazil advocating Argentine interests. End Comment) -------------- -------------- Annapolis: A new opportunity for Brazil's global leadership ambitions? -------------- -------------- ¶9. (C) Amorim characterized the outcome of the Annapolis Conference as "very positive" and was thankful for the invitation to participate. He appreciated the opportunity to reiterate Brazil's position on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and emphasized the importance of the broad participation of the international community as a way to increase the stakes. Amorim praised Secretary Rice for the way that she "intelligently" utilized her own childhood to empathize with both the Palestinians and the Israelis. ¶10. (C) Amorim reiterated the GOB's desire to play a more significant role than in the past, specifically offering to host a conference for Israeli and Palestinian civil society leaders. (Note: This offer was mentioned in Amorim's November 27 intervention at the Annapolis Conference. End Note) The Ambassador suggested that this be a topic of conversation during the Secretary's visit to Brazil in January. (Comment: While discussing Annapolis, Amorim mentioned that he is "sick of trade" and intimated that he is looking to branch out and take on new issues that would put Brazil in the spotlight as a global leader among developing countries. From Brazil's perspective, the Annapolis Conference offers a new outlet for Brazil's global leadership ambitions. End Comment) -------------- No major obstacles for bilateral issues -------------- ¶11. (C) The Ambassador and Amorim discussed a series of issues on the bilateral agenda: BRASILIA 00002217 004 OF 005 - Tax Treaty: In reference to follow-up to the October CEO Forum, the Ambassador noted his hope that there would be forward movement soon on negotiating a tax treaty. Amorim voiced his support for the treaty ("this is a good thing"), but noted that the Brazilian IRS (Receita Federal) is "the most difficult (institution) to work with." - Property bill: The Ambassador highlighted the recent unanimous vote in Brazil,s Senate in favor of the agreement on buying and selling diplomatic properties, a contentious issue for many years that has resulted in reciprocity measures. Amorim indicated that he was not surprised at all by this development, as &the U.S. is in the hearts of everyone right now8. The Ambassador assured Amorim that the bill,s passage will open the way for an expeditious opening of the Brazilian Consulate General in Atlanta. The Ambassador also noted that he will be meeting with the appointed Consul General in the coming days. - Visas for law enforcement: The Ambassador referenced the recent delays in USG law enforcement officials obtaining their visas. He emphasized that while the U.S. makes every effort to process such visas for Brazilian authorities within a day or two, the Brazilians are taking weeks. Amorim promised to look into the situation. - Civil aviation negotiations: While this issue was not discussed at length, Amorim noted that the Foreign Ministry is very supportive of opening direct routes between the U.S. and Brazil's Northeast, a topic expected to be agreed upon during the upcoming bilateral aviation negotiations. The Ambassador suggested that Secretary Rice and Foreign Minister Amorim could jointly announce these new routes from Salvador on January 10. - Cultural exchanges: Amorim suggested that the Mission bring to Brazil an art exhibit of a prominent American artist, even if only comprised of a dozen works of art. Amorim promised to preside over an eventual inauguration. The Ambassador made reference to the recently opened photographic exhibit commemorating 50 years of the Fulbright program in Brazil and the Missions intent to bring the exhibit to every state in Brazil. - Codel wrap-up: The Ambassador made reference to the recent large Codels that visited Brazil, and in particular to the synergies that emerged during the Codel Engel visit to the Brazilian Congress. The Ambassador noted that Congressman Meeks was particularly enthused about possible future cooperation between the Congressional Black Caucus and Brazilian legislators. -------------- Upcoming USG Visits -------------- ¶12. (C) The Ambassador provided a status report on the planning for Secretary Rice's trip to Brazil in January, which he noted has not yet been 100% confirmed. He mentioned that she would likely arrive in Salvador on January 10, following stops in two or three other countries in the region. Amorim suggested that while in Salvador, the Secretary should visit the old city, a social project and SIPDIS possibly a site representative of Salvador's African origins. BRASILIA 00002217 005 OF 005 ¶13. (C) The Ambassador referenced A/S Tom Shannon's visit to Brazil during the second week of December. Amorim indicated that he would be happy to meet with A/S Shannon if in town. In discussing a possible future trip for U/S Nick Burns, Amorim suggested that he try to schedule a visit to coincide with Carnival (first week of February). -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶14. (C) Brazil,s intent to seize on global leadership issues ) such as the Annapolis Conference and the Doha negotiations ) contrasts with their stated preference to maintain distance from South America,s most contentious issues: Venezuela and Bolivia. As for bilateral relations, Amorim signaled continued goodwill, which can be further harnessed during upcoming visits by senior USG officials. ¶15. (U) Cable drafted by AmConsul Sao Paulo. SOBEL