IRAN-RUSSIA-VENEZUELA TRIANGLE THREATENS REGIONAL

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 BRASILIA 002132

SIPDIS

C O R R E C T E D COPY - ADDRESSEES ADDED

SIPDIS

UNVIE FOR AMB GREG SHULTE
DOE FOR DOE/NNSA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/07/2017
TAGS: PREL MASS BR VE XR RS IR
SUBJECT: IRAN-RUSSIA-VENEZUELA TRIANGLE THREATENS REGIONAL
STABILITY

REF: BUENOS AIRES 2191

BRASILIA 00002132 001.3 OF 003


Classified By: Ambassador Clifford M. Sobel, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. Iran, Russia, and Venezuela are involved
in an open and growing collaboration with a common purpose to
make more arms available to radical populist governments and
spread anti-American ideology in the region, according to the
chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations and National Defense
committee. He is "truly concerned" and urges the USG to be
more engaged "before it is too late." The chairman said
presidential foreign policy adviser Marco Aurelio Garcia
strongly recommended Ahmadinejad visit Brazil. Chairman
Fortes surmised that Foreign Minister Celso Amorim was less
receptive to the visit. Fortes noted that with the
increasing wealth of oil-producing states, there are some
that will support Russian arms purchases, and in
conversation, the Deputy Minister alluded that perhaps
Ecuador and even Brazil could become beneficiaries. End
summary.


2. (C) During a November 5 phone call, Senator Heraclito
Fortes (Democrats Party, opposition; of Piaui) asked the
Ambassador to meet with him urgently to raise a matter he
could not discuss on the telephone. In a meeting that
afternoon, which continued the next morning, Fortes told the
Ambassador, poloff, and assistant army attache that he is
"truly concerned" about Iranian and Venezuelan activities in
the region, including financing "friendship organizations"
between congresses and even potentially financing arms sales.
He described a recent meeting with the Iranian Deputy
Minister for Petroleum and former Ambassador to Brazil who
sought "cooperation" with Brazil, the nature of which
"depends on Brazil." (Note: This is Dr. Mansour Moazami,
Iranian Ambassador to Brazil from 2000 until about 2003. End
note.) He spoke of Iran's growing relationship with
Venezuela and Ecuador and even indicated that the recent trip
of President Putin to IRAN was extremely successful and dealt
with many of the difficult issues that had to be resolved.
In mentioning arms sales, Chairman Fortes again underscored
Iran's interest in helping Brazil, depending on Brazil own
interest. The Deputy Minister told Fortes that IRAN already
has agreements with Bolivia and Ecuador, but it was not made
clear to Fortes whether these were arms agreements.

Connecting the Dots
--------------


3. (C) Fortes sees a sequence of dots showing more
Venezuelan influence and interference in the region, Iranian
support for Caracas, La Paz, and Quito, and the specter of
Russian arms in the region.


4. (C) Fortes said the Iranian Deputy Minister described President Vladimir Putin's recent visit to IRAN as very good, resolving many differences between them; the Iranian mentioned Russian arms sales to Venezuela, Russian relations with Venezuela, as well as Venezuelan support for Bolivian and Ecuador, praised Venezuela, and mentioned Venezuela's recent acquisition of 26 warplanes, claiming they are to maintain peace. The Deputy Minister, a former ambassador to Brazil and one who knows Brazil, told Fortes it is up to Brazil to determine how it wanted to work with Iran, and through thinly veiled references asked the chairman of the Foreign Relations and National Defense Committee if he was interested in reviving the Friendship Group that previously had as its leader a former senator of, as Fortes implied, questionable character. Fortes said he had never been approached that way in his career. He said the moribund group will likely be revived in the Senate without his support. Fortes said he believed there was pressure from unknown quarters within Brazil to purchase Russian arms, adding that the Air Force Commander, General Juniti Saito, told him if he (Saito) were pushed to buy Russian weapons he would have no option, and Fortes thought it would be a huge mistake.


5. (C) Fortes continued pointing out worrisome signs:
leftist Venezuelan, Bolivian, and Peruvian deputies who are
trying to reactivate the Caracas-based Amazonian Parliament
(Parlamaz) were visiting Brasilia Nov 5-8 to LOBBY the
Brazilian Congress, and there are now "Bolivarian circles" in
Brazil that media have reported as being under Venezuelan
tutelage. Official Venezuelan diplomacy is increasingly
commercial, with huge contracts for firms such as Brazilian
construction giant Odebrecht, who then LOBBY for Venezuela,
Fortes noted. The expanded availability of the type of arms
in Venezuela that could be used for populist causes in Brazil
was also of concern to the senator. Fortes said it may not
be coincidental that Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey
Kislyak arrived in Brasilia the same day as Iranian Deputy
Petroluem Minister and he speculated there may have been a
three-way meeting with Brazilians, the Russian, and the
Iranian.


6. (S) Iranian outreach plans in the region include another
Ahmadinejad trip including Brazil, probably for the next
inauguration of a Latin American president, making the trip a
springboard for Iranian regional diplomacy, Fortes said.
(Note: Ahmadinejad canceled a scheduled visit here last
September on short notice.) Presidential foreign policy
adviser Marco Aurelio Garcia supported the Iranian
president's visit, which may not have been supported by
Foreign Minister Celso Amorim, Fortes said, and the Iranian
Deputy Minister, who was in the traveling delegation to
Caracas and La Paz, said he tried everything up to the last
minute to get it reinstated. Fortes added that the Deputy
Minister was very disappointed at the cancellation,
especially since an Iranian advance team was already on the
ground in Brasilia. The senator indicated that he thought
that despite Garcia's strong support for the Ahmadinejad
visit, Celso Amorim may have intereceded due to the
sensitivities. Sensitive reporting indicates, though that
the reasons were other.

"You Are Children"
--------------


7. (C) Fortes strongly urged the USG to engage much more
"before it is too late." The USG is "indifferent" to what is
happening in the region and he urged the USG to take notice
of Venezuelan, Russian, and Iranian plans in the region,
saying, "You are children: you ignore a problem until it is
well along and then it is too late." He suggested the USG
adopt a plan for regional integration and promote arms
manufacturing partnerships with Brazil and Argentina to arm
the region, and said it could be done indirectly through arms
firms without publicly linking the USG to the increased arms
sales.


8. (S) Comment. Iranian and Venezuelan influence in Brazil and the region is certainly growing and mutually reinforcing, and Chairman Fortes is correct that there are differing views on how to engage Iran, but clearly Brazil will be increasingly sensitive to Iranian interests. It is also interesting to recall President Lula's remarks on the margins of the last UN General Assembly when he said IRAN was not in violation of any UN guidelines with its nuclear program, as well as Brazil's abstention on November 7 in the Interpol vote to issue international capture notices for Iranian officials accused in the AMIA bombing (reftel). Chairman Fortes's concerns parallel recent views we have heard reporting on increasing Brazilian concerns over Venezuelan arms purchases, the lack of a modernized Brazilian defense capability, and increasing engagement of Venezuelan diplomats in Brazil funding Bolivarian Circles and populist organizations. Chairman Fortes is not alone in his feeling, especially given the recent remarks of former president and sitting senator Jose Sarney, a leader of the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party.

Sobel