VENEZUELAN MERCOSUL ACCESSION MAY NOT PASS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRASILIA 001865 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/27/2017 TAGS: PREL ECIN BR VE XR SUBJECT: VENEZUELAN MERCOSUL ACCESSION MAY NOT PASS BRAZILIAN CONGRESS REF: BRASILIA 1568 Classified By: Ambassador Clifford M. Sobel, reasons 1.4 b & d ¶1. (SBU) Summary. The bill to approve Venezuelan accession to Mercosul may not pass the Brazilian congress, in spite of support from the administration and the government's large majority in the chamber of deputies. President Chavez may have torpedoed Venezuela's chances when, at the September 20 summit with President Lula in Manaus, Brazil, he reportedly insulted the Brazilian congress a second time. Although GOB officials continue to express confidence in eventual passage of the bill, the chamber of deputies has postponed consideration of the bill to late October, and a leading senator believes the Senate may reject the bill. End summary. ¶2. (U) Venezuelan accession to Mercosul may be rejected by the Brazilian congress after President Hugo Chavez again insulted the congress during his summit with President Lula on September 20 in Manaus, Brazil. Consideration of the bill in the chamber of deputies Foreign Relations and National Defense Committee had already been delayed a week when four deputies, one a former defense minister and immediate past president of the chamber of deputies from a party in the government coalition, requested more time to examine the proposal. On September 26 the committee decided to postpone consideration until October 24, reportedly because of "pending technical issues" that should have been resolved before the protocol on Venezuelan accession was signed last year, and because Chavez's remarks had "generated a bad feeling," in the words of Deputy Vieira da Cunha (government coalition PDT, Rio Grande do Sul state),the committee chairman. ¶3. (C) In a meeting with Ambassador Sobel on September 26, Senator Heraclito Fortes (opposition DEM, Piaui state), chairman of the senate Foreign Relations and National Defense Committee, said it would now be hard for Venezuelan Mercosul accession to pass the senate. "Chavez is playing an unclear game," Fortes said, "because he faces domestic difficulties in joining Mercosul" even as he presses for it on the international front. Fortes went on to say, "His behavior proves he is not normal, and now we have the Manaus declarations against Congress." Fortes added that Chavez would like to have veto power in Mercosul, which would be "too much power for someone so unstable." Moreover, Fortes said, compliance with the Democracy Clause would be hard for Chavez to achieve. Summing up, Fortes said it would be hard for the bill to pass his committee, a change from early August (reftel),when he seemed to favor approving Venezuelan accession, despite his negative views of Chavez. ¶4. (C) At a September 28 meeting, Clemente de Lima Baena Soares, who heads the office at the Ministry of External Relations (Itamaraty) covering Andean countries, Guyana, and Suriname, told PolCouns that he had been in Manaus for the Lula-Chavez Summit and that the one newspaper that reported Chavez's comments about the Brazilian congress (O Estado de Sao Paulo) got it wrong. He said other papers had not reported and had even denied that Chavez had made such a comment. (Note: This is inaccurate, as Chavez's remarks were also reported by O Globo and Correio Braziliense. End note.) He acknowledged, however, that the damage had been done, and said that Venezuelan accession will certainly not be approved before the end of the year, and would now require a great deal of effort from the Administration to ensure passage. He was optimistic that it would eventually be approved, though, saying it was a high priority for the Administration, and they would do the deals necessary in the senate to make sure it happens. ¶5. (C) Comment: The GOB's strong support for Venezuela's entry into Mercosul almost certainly reflects a strategy that aims to counter Chavez's regional influence and integration plans by moving him into an organization over which Brazil exercises a great deal of control. However, whether reported accurately or not, the backlash caused by Chavez's comments regarding the Brazilian congress have put the GOB in a difficult position and have raised serious doubts about the prospects for approval of Venezuela's entry in Mercosul, when only a week ago most commentators believed it was simply a question of time. Ultimately, though, we believe that if BRASILIA 00001865 002 OF 002 Lula wants Venezuelan accession to Mercosul he can give legislators enough incentives to ensure passage. Sobel