CONSERVATIVES MODERNIZE AND REBUILD LEADING UP TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 008722 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/01/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF CO SUBJECT: CONSERVATIVES MODERNIZE AND REBUILD LEADING UP TO 2010 REF: A. BOGOTA 8430 ¶B. BOGOTA 8478 -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) The Conservative Party did well in the recent October local elections, reversing two decades of decline and significantly increasing the overall number of votes cast for the party and its candidates. The party maintains close ties with the Casa de Narino, but its leaders are focused on efforts to position it to take the lead in the post-Uribe political climate. The party plans to run its own candidate in the 2010 presidential elections--believing this is key to maintaining its own identity--but recognizes that the Uribe coalition must choose one candidate if it is to keep its hold on the presidency. End Summary. -------------- STRENGTHENING THEIR RANKS -------------- ¶2. (U) The Conservative Party, historically the second largest party in Colombia, reversed two decades of declining fortunes and made significant gains in the 2007 October local elections. Still, the party remains in a rebuilding phase along with Colombia's other traditionally dominant party--the Liberals. (Note: The Conservatives and Liberals formally shared power from 1958-74 under the National Front, and continued a de facto arrangement until 1986.) The Conservatives' total vote count in 2007 rose 68 percent over the 2003 election results, while the number of Conservative candidates elected increased by 27 percent. Weekly magazine Semana reported that the Conservatives fared the best of all the Uribe coalition parties in the October elections, winning five governorships (Tolima, Risaralda, Norte de Santander, Huila, and Guaviare) as well as mayoral races in five departmental capitals (Neiva, Popayan, Monteria, Riohacha, and Mocoa). -------------- REBUILDING THE PARTY FROM WITHIN -------------- ¶3. (C) The Conservative Party is struggling to carve out its own political identity after six years of support for President Uribe, a former Liberal who won as an independent. Conservative Party leader and Senator Efrain Cepeda said the party would continue to modernize for broader appeal--especially leading into the 2010 presidential elections. The Conservatives would build on their solid reputation on fiscal matters and would "open up" more on social issues. As part of this effort, the party would show more flexibility and stress its support for Uribe's poverty reduction, health, and education programs. Cepeda lamented that three Conservatives had been jailed in the para-political scandal, including former Congress President and Senator Luis Gomez-Gallo. He told us the Conservatives remained clear of the most serious allegations, as opposed to the smaller coalition parties which have the largest number of implicated politicians. -------------- CONSERVATIVES CONTINUE SUPPORT FOR URIBE -------------- ¶4. (C) Cepeda said relations with the Casa de Narino are harmonious, and stressed that his party has been Uribe's most reliable partner in Congress. Conservative support for Uribe was key to rebuilding the party's popular image after the failed presidency of Conservative Andres Pastrana. Still, he noted some political differences, and confirmed that a successful Conservative effort this term to ease congressional procedures for censuring cabinet ministers had infuriated Uribe, and led to speculation that Interior and Justice Minister Carlos Holguin (considered the party's elder statesman) might resign over the flap. Senator Salazar, party spokesman in the Senate, told us, "the entire coalition supports Casa de Narino and Uribe, but sometimes the executive and legislative branches are striving for different things." Cepeda hinted at Casa de Narino bias towards the U Party in funding during October elections to the disadvantage of the Conservatives and Cambio Radical. -------------- IN SEARCH OF A CANDIDATE -------------- ¶5. (C) Cepeda explained that the Conservatives plan to run their own candidate in the 2010 presidential elections to reinforce their party's identity. The party would prefer to work through the coalition to arrive at a consensus choice for a single candidate to carry the Uribe banner, and feels it has several candidates capable of continuing Uribe's legacy. Cepeda identified Holguin, Agricultural Minister Andres Arias, outgoing Atlantico Governor Carlos Rodado Noriega, and Colombian Ambassador to Rome Sabas Pretelt de la Vega as potential presidential contenders. He said Uribe continues to consider amending the Constitution to run for a third term, but speculated that such an effort would fail since the Conservatives and other coalition parties with presidential contenders--like German Vargas Lleras of Cambio Radical--would not support the effort (ref B). Nichols