CONSERVATIVES MODERNIZE AND REBUILD LEADING UP TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 008722

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/01/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF CO
SUBJECT: CONSERVATIVES MODERNIZE AND REBUILD LEADING UP TO
2010

REF: A. BOGOTA 8430


B. BOGOTA 8478

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Summary
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1. (C) The Conservative Party did well in the recent October
local elections, reversing two decades of decline and
significantly increasing the overall number of votes cast for
the party and its candidates. The party maintains close ties
with the Casa de Narino, but its leaders are focused on
efforts to position it to take the lead in the post-Uribe
political climate. The party plans to run its own candidate
in the 2010 presidential elections--believing this is key to
maintaining its own identity--but recognizes that the Uribe
coalition must choose one candidate if it is to keep its hold
on the presidency. End Summary.

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STRENGTHENING THEIR RANKS
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2. (U) The Conservative Party, historically the second
largest party in Colombia, reversed two decades of declining
fortunes and made significant gains in the 2007 October local
elections. Still, the party remains in a rebuilding phase
along with Colombia's other traditionally dominant party--the
Liberals. (Note: The Conservatives and Liberals formally
shared power from 1958-74 under the National Front, and
continued a de facto arrangement until 1986.) The
Conservatives' total vote count in 2007 rose 68 percent over
the 2003 election results, while the number of Conservative
candidates elected increased by 27 percent. Weekly magazine
Semana reported that the Conservatives fared the best of all
the Uribe coalition parties in the October elections, winning
five governorships (Tolima, Risaralda, Norte de Santander,
Huila, and Guaviare) as well as mayoral races in five
departmental capitals (Neiva, Popayan, Monteria, Riohacha,
and Mocoa).

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REBUILDING THE PARTY FROM WITHIN
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3. (C) The Conservative Party is struggling to carve out its
own political identity after six years of support for
President Uribe, a former Liberal who won as an independent.
Conservative Party leader and Senator Efrain Cepeda said the
party would continue to modernize for broader
appeal--especially leading into the 2010 presidential
elections. The Conservatives would build on their solid
reputation on fiscal matters and would "open up" more on
social issues. As part of this effort, the party would show
more flexibility and stress its support for Uribe's poverty
reduction, health, and education programs. Cepeda lamented
that three Conservatives had been jailed in the
para-political scandal, including former Congress President
and Senator Luis Gomez-Gallo. He told us the Conservatives
remained clear of the most serious allegations, as opposed to
the smaller coalition parties which have the largest number
of implicated politicians.

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CONSERVATIVES CONTINUE SUPPORT FOR URIBE
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4. (C) Cepeda said relations with the Casa de Narino are
harmonious, and stressed that his party has been Uribe's most
reliable partner in Congress. Conservative support for Uribe
was key to rebuilding the party's popular image after the
failed presidency of Conservative Andres Pastrana. Still, he
noted some political differences, and confirmed that a
successful Conservative effort this term to ease
congressional procedures for censuring cabinet ministers had
infuriated Uribe, and led to speculation that Interior and
Justice Minister Carlos Holguin (considered the party's elder
statesman) might resign over the flap. Senator Salazar,
party spokesman in the Senate, told us, "the entire coalition
supports Casa de Narino and Uribe, but sometimes the
executive and legislative branches are striving for different
things." Cepeda hinted at Casa de Narino bias towards the U

Party in funding during October elections to the disadvantage
of the Conservatives and Cambio Radical.

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IN SEARCH OF A CANDIDATE
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5. (C) Cepeda explained that the Conservatives plan to run
their own candidate in the 2010 presidential elections to
reinforce their party's identity. The party would prefer to
work through the coalition to arrive at a consensus choice
for a single candidate to carry the Uribe banner, and feels
it has several candidates capable of continuing Uribe's
legacy. Cepeda identified Holguin, Agricultural Minister
Andres Arias, outgoing Atlantico Governor Carlos Rodado
Noriega, and Colombian Ambassador to Rome Sabas Pretelt de la
Vega as potential presidential contenders. He said Uribe
continues to consider amending the Constitution to run for a
third term, but speculated that such an effort would fail
since the Conservatives and other coalition parties with
presidential contenders--like German Vargas Lleras of Cambio
Radical--would not support the effort (ref B).

Nichols