ELN-GOC PEACE PROCESS REMAINS STALLED

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 008518 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/17/2017 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL PTER PREF CU VZ CO SUBJECT: ELN-GOC PEACE PROCESS REMAINS STALLED Classified By: Political Counselor John S. Creamer Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) The GOC is trying to revive FARC-ELN peace talks, but a December meeting appears doubtful. Numerous contacts told us ELN leaders remain divided over whether to pursue peace talks with the GOC, and are looking to close ranks with the FARC. Former ELN member Leon Valencia told us senior ELN leader Nicolas Rodriguez admitted that the GOC's democratic security policy has severely limited the ELN's ability to operate freely. Adding a new twist, Valencia said the ELN would demand that the GOC and Colombian Courts provide ELN members a complete amnesty before the group would agree to concentrate its forces and demobilize. End Summary -------------- ROOM FOR MOVEMENT? -------------- ¶2. (C) Presidential advisor Jose Obdulio Gaviria told us he is urging President Uribe to show greater flexibility with the ELN in an effort to revive GOC-ELN peace talks. Agreement on a ceasefire and the liberation of ELN kidnap victims would strengthen the GOC's political position on the paramilitary process and vis-a-vis the FARC. Norwegian Charge Dag Nylander said the GOC passed a new offer to the ELN in early December that backtracks from its previous insistence that ELN members must concentrate as part of any ceasefire accord. The new GOC proposal calls for the ELN to identify only the locations of ELN negotiators and some Central Command (COCE) members. ¶3. (C) Still, Nylander doubted the proposal would be enough for ELN-GOC talks planned for the second half of December to proceed. The GOC and ELN agreed on these dates prior to the GOC's suspension of President Chavez' mediation efforts with the ELN and FARC. On December 10, the ELN issued a communique criticizing Uribe for removing Chavez from the process and attributing this to pressure from President Bush. The ELN also attacked the USG for soliciting the extradition of ELN members, but reiterated its commitment to seeking a political solution to Colombia's conflict. Catholic priest Dario Echeverri also voiced skepticism that GOC-FARC talks would resume soon, noting that Chavez would "cast a shadow" over any meeting and that the Cubans remain unhappy with the GOC's sudden shift of the process from Havana to Caracas last August. -------------- ELN LEADERSHIP MEETS: PEACE CAMP LOSES -------------- ¶4. (C) ELN peace process "guarantor" Moritz Akerman told us the COCE remains divided over whether to proceed with genuine peace talks with the GOC. After long internal discussion, he claimed the COCE decided in November to pursue a "double agenda" in future peace talks with the GOC: advancing a "bolvarian agenda" in the peace process to gain Chavez' support and gain political legitimacy, while also coordinating their negotiating position with the FARC. ¶5. (C) Former ELN member and peace advocate Leon Valencia acknowledged internal ELN divisions, but claimed senior ELN cadre Nicolas Rodriguez (Gabino) supports a ceasefire and eventual peace process. Rodriguez admitted that Uribe's democratic security policy has been effective, and said the ELN has little space in which to operate. His chief concern is to obtain a complete amnesty--with full juridical guarantees--for ELN members. Rodriguez told Valencia the ELN would not accept the treatment given to paramilitary leaders who thought they would receive no real jail time--only to find themselves in prison after the Constitutional Court changed the terms of the deal. ¶6. (C) Guarantor Daniel Garcia Pena (also secretary general of the Polo Democratico Party) confirmed that the guarantors had recommended that any ELN-GOC meeting be delayed until January so the participants could see how the Uribe-Chavez dispute plays out. Garcia Pena met with ELN spokesman Francisco Galan in early December and urged him to push the COCE to release unilaterally its kidnapping victims to give an impetus to the otherwise moribund process. Galan said he agreed, but added that the COCE would not take such a step because: 1) they do not want to offend Chavez and believe a unilateral release immediately after the Uribe-Chavez dispute would embarrass him; and 2) COCE members remain committed to pursuing a relationship with the FARC. Brownfield