U PARTY REMAINS DIVIDED HEADING INTO 2010

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 008430 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2017 TAGS: PGOV PINR CO SUBJECT: U PARTY REMAINS DIVIDED HEADING INTO 2010 -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) The U Party continues to consolidate its party structure following the October local elections, with Party leaders focused on quashing internal dissent and developing a plan to enable it to maintain strong ties with whoever wins the 2010 presidential elections. Still, the Party's poor relations with President Uribe and the Casa de Narino mean its leaders will likely have little influence in deciding who will represent "Uribismo" 2010. Presidential advisor and political strategist Jose ObdulioGavaria predicts the Party will disappear after 2010. End Summary -------------- U PARTY IN LOCAL ELECTIONS -------------- ¶2. (C) The U Party fared well October 28 in its first effort in local elections, picking up 7 gubernatorial seats in the Departments of Meta, Magdalena, Choco, Casanare, Guainia, Vichada and Sucre, and 3 mayoral seats in departmental capitols (Quibdo, Puerto Inirida, and Pereira). In total number of votes, the U Party came in third, just behind the more established Conservative and Liberal Parties. Senator Carlos Garcia, president of the U Party, told us the party succeeded in consolidating a regional base, which will strengthen the party leading up to the 2010 presidential elections. -------------- UNITY AND LEADERSHIP -------------- ¶3. (C) The U Party remains fractured, with an "all chiefs and noindians" structure that has crippled its ability to develop a coherent platform--apart from support for President Uribe. A dissident group within the Party--former Party President and Senator Marta Lucia Ramirez, Senator Gina Pardoli, Senator Armando Bendetti and Deptuy Nicolas Uribe--say Party leaders abandoned President Uribe's political reform agenda in favor of traditional backroom political deals, shady POLITICAL ties, and manipulation of internal party rules to stifle party democracy. They blame Garcia for focusing on jobs for the boys and supporting candidates with paramilitary links in the October local elections. They also criticize U Party founders and current cabinet members Juan Manuel Santos and Oscar Ivan Zuluaga for largely withdrawing from internal Party politics. ¶4. (C) Garcia told us the dissidents are unhappy because they have lost senior positions within the Party, and represent a small but vocal minority. He confirmed the Party will hold a congress on December 13, aimed at refining party rules and setting the stage for possible disciplinary actions--or even expulsion--of the dissidents. President Uribe interceded on behalf of the dissidents in October, but Garcia told us party rank-in-file members have exhausted their patience. The dissidents need to fall in line or face the consequences. ¶5. (C) JaimeRestrepo, U Party Spokesman in the House, acknowledged the dissidents' complaints, but said they need to voice those concerns within the party rather than to the media. Uribe added that he is pessimistic about the party's future. He plans to push for a long-shot reform bill that would allow himself (and others in Congress) to switch political parties while serving in Congress. Current law requires legislators to leave Congress if they change party allegiance. -------------- RELATIONS WITH CASA DE NARINO -------------- ¶6. (C) It remains unclear how close the U Party is to President Uribe and the Casa de Narino. Garcia and Restrepo claim there is a close relationship, but presidential advisor Jose ObdulioGaviria told us communication between the Party and the presidency is poor. He said Uribe set up the Party to give him a solid congressional base, but complained the Party does not support President Uribe's programs or policies. It is not an effective vehicle for preserving the President's legacy. He predicted the Party will disappear after the 2010 presidential elections. Former presidential advisor Nicolas Uribe agreed the Party-Presidential relationship is weak, noting that the "Casa Narino sets its own policy and does not care whether they have support or friends in Congress, including from the U Party." -------------- 2010 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS -------------- ¶7. (C) U Party leaders recognize the 2010 presidential elections will likely determine the Party's fate. Despite the tensions with President Uribe, some party leaders support a third term for the president and Party Secretary General Luis Guillermo Giraldo has publicly launched a drive to collect the signatures needed to push for a constitutional amending allowing Uribe to run again (see septel). Other leaders are trying to recruit a candidate, such as outgoing Medellin Mayor and POLITICAL independent Sergio Fajardo, who could win Uribe's blessing and maintain his coalition. Garcia told us the U Party's weaknesses--its newness and lack of coherent POLITICAL ideology--may be its greatest asset, as the U Party can be a natural fit for any candidate. Still, the Party's tenuous ties with the President and sharp internal divisions means its leaders are likely to have little influence in deciding who will represent "Uribismo" in ¶2010. Brownfield =======================CABLE ENDS============================