META AT RISK: ELECTIONS VISIT TO VILLAVICENCIO

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 007622

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/17/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR PTER PHUM CO
SUBJECT: META AT RISK: ELECTIONS VISIT TO VILLAVICENCIO


Classified By: Political Counselor John Creamer - 1.5 (b,d)

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Summary
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1. (U) On September 26-28, we met with political party
leaders, candidates, incumbents, and civil society
representatives in Meta to discuss the October 28 local
elections. The civil society group--the Electoral
Observation Mission (MOE)--considers Meta at high risk for
violence and fraud. Corruption is a serious concern in the
campaigns for mayor and governor, with politicians and
illegal armed groups fighting for control of oil royalties
and government contracts. The GOC is focused on providing
security for candidates and voters, but a continued FARC and
criminal group presence in many areas, the large number of
displaced persons, and limited infrastructure are major
challenges. End Summary.

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TURBULENT PAST
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2. (U) Since 2004 there have been eight governors in Meta
and thirteen mayors in Villvicencio--with most of that number
removed from office after being found guilty of corruption or
other serious crimes. Several candidates running for
governor or mayor face investigation by the Prosecutor
General's office (Fiscalia) or the Inspector General's Office
(Procuraduria). Many of the candidates in the region are
part of long-time political machines that have dominated
local government for years. Asked whether elections would
make a difference for the political future of Meta,
Conservative gubernatorial candidate Carlos Enrique Vaca,
explained, "nothing will change after these elections, it's
all about money, contracts and royalties. It will take years
to transform the system, maybe even a generation."

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META: HIGH RISK
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3. (C) There are 29 municipalities in Meta, and MOE considers
22 of those to be at high risk for possible violence or
corruption. The homicide rate in Meta is three times the
national average, primarily due to fighting among the FARC,
narcotraffickers, other criminal groups, and the security
forces. Nearly half of Meta's population lives in
Villavicencio, the capital.


4. (C) Meta is one of the FARC's main coca-growing zones, and
fierce fighting between the group and GOC security forces has
led to substantial displacement of the rural population. In
the 2006 presidential elections, only 15-25% of the eligible
electorate in south-west Meta was able to vote. Fiscal
German Rossi Casallas said fighting in the eastern part of
the department between new criminal groups has also
escalated. Defensoria conflict analyst Gustavo Robayo claims
illegal armed groups continue to recruit in the region and
are trying to impact elections. At highest risk are the
municipalities of Vista Hermosa, Puerto Rico, San Juan de
Arama, Mesetas and Villavicencio.


5. (C) There have been at least a dozen reported attacks and
assassination attempts against candidates in Meta in 2007.
On September 25, the Alternative Liberal Movement's candidate
for town council, Robinson Salazar Herrera, was assassinated.
On October 8, a grenade was thrown into the house of
Erminson Cardenas, U Party mayoral candidate in La Macarena,
and on October 16 the FARC attacked the political
headquarters of Wilson Munoz Cardenas, U party mayoral
candidate in Puerto Rico. Both candidates survived the
attacks. Many in Meta believe the Liberal Party,
Conservative Party, U Party, and Cambio Radical candidates
are tied to criminal groups, while the FARC supports the
leftist Polo Democratico.

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OIL ROYALTIES AND GOVERNMENT CONTRACTS
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6. (U) The battle for control of departmental contracts and
oil royalties influences every element of politics in Meta.
Governor Juan Manual Gonzalez, Villavicencio Mayor Hector
Manuel Caamano, and several candidates and civil society
members told us Meta's oil royalties represented almost USD
$125 million in 2006. In Castilla la Nueva, for example,
with only 6,000 inhabitants, oil generated $16 million in
revenues for municipal coffers in 2006. Many companies
seeking government contracts are funding political candidates
with the understanding they will be awarded local contracts
if the candidate wins. The oil contracts, construction, and
health service contracts are most valuable.


7. (C) Polo Democratico regional coordinator Timoteo Romero
told us most other parties in Meta have ties to illegal armed
groups, but denied alleged ties between some Polo candidates
and the FARC. Romero said the situation in Meta is one of
the worst in Colombia with high levels of poverty,
displacement, and unemployment. Most candidates running for
mayor and governor were financed by local companies trying to
secure government contracts. Still, Romero said the
paramilitary demobilization has allowed the Polo to run
candidates in races across the Department--something that was
not possible in previous elections.

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KEY RACES
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8. (C) Meta Governor, Villavicencio Mayor, and Other Races:

--The leading candidates for governor are Maritza Martinez
Aristizabal (Volvamos a Avanzar) and Diego Vasquez (U Party),
both of which have large and well financed campaigns.
Martinez is under investigation for paramilitary ties and
corruption, and is married to ex-Governor (2001-03) and
former-Senator Luis Carlos Torres. Torres resigned from the
Senate on October 8, 2007, after the Supreme Court formally
charged him with paramilitary ties. Torres is widely
considered to be the political kingmaker in Meta.

--For Mayor, Tania Jaramillo Garcia (U Party) and Eddy
Baquero Garcia (Elija Bien) are leading a pack of ten
candidates, polling 30% and 25% of the vote, respectively.
Baquero is the wife of the ex-mayor and owns a local sewage
company. The company allegedly provides discounts to
residents who promise their votes to Baquero.

--Candidates in rural areas face pressure from the FARC or
other criminal groups, but a new GOC security presence is
allowing free campaigning in many areas for the first time in
decades. In the municipalities of Vista Hermosa, Puerto
Rico, La Macarena and Uribe, traditionally FARC-held areas
that were part of the demilitarized zone (despeje) created by
President Pastrana in 1999, mayors spent most of their time
in Villavicenio due to threats. Still, recent military
offensives in the Macarena region allowed some mayors to
return to their towns. In October, the Police opened a
station in La Julia, a former FARC logistics hub in Uribe
municipality, which will allow citizens the chance to vote
free of FARC influence for the first time in memory.

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GOC OVERSIGHT AND ACCOUNTABILITY
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9. (U) GOC elections officials in Meta explained that the GOC
is investigating voter manipulation and providing security to
threatened candidates throughout the department. Still, the
GOC's ability to provide security in the vast, rural, and
sparsely populated zone--which remains a main center of FARC
activity in the country--is limited. Villavicencio Police
Commander Colonel Pablo Emilio Gomez said the Police are
providing security to six candidates facing the most serious
threat. He did not have the manpower to respond to every one
of the 140 requests for protection that he had received from
across the Department. Gomez suspected that most political
parties have surpassed campaign spending limits. Officials
also told us they do not have enough investigators to hold
parties to campaign finance spending limits or investigate
alleged violations.


10. (U) National Registrar Office representative Generoso
Puche said civil servants assigned to Meta from other regions
to process voter registration, provide training to government
observers and political parties, and oversee polls and voting
stations, arrived in mid-September. The GOC is assigning
individuals from other regions to Meta to prevent local
fraud. He also requested additional election observers
during the official vote count, which begins on October 30.
Puche explained that the Fiscalia is investigating several
candidates for corruption and vote buying--though
investigations may not produce results prior to the
elections.
Brownfield