ELN "CONFUSED" AS PARTIES PREPARE FOR TALKS IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 006894 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2017 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL PTER PREF VZ CO SUBJECT: ELN "CONFUSED" AS PARTIES PREPARE FOR TALKS IN CARACAS Classified By: Political Counselor John Creamer - Reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) Summary. Peace Commissioner Restrepo told us the last round of ELN talks in Havana (August 20-24) made it clear the Cubans would not press the ELN to make a deal, leading the GOC to accept the ELN's long-standing request to shift the talks to Caracas. The GOC thinks President Chavez wants to achieve rapid progress in the talks to enhance his image, and hopes he will push the ELN to accept a ceasefire. Still, Restrepo said the ELN is paralyzed, with ELN leaders who favor peace unwilling to break with radical, criminal fronts that control the fighters. He complained about the ELN's manipulation of various international peace groups such as Colombia University's Aldo Civico and Pax Christi . The GOC now supports these groups' direct participation at the negotiating table, believing it will make their actions more transparent. End Summary -------------- Peace process with ELN in Cuba was exhausted -------------- ¶2. (C) Peace Commissioner Luis Carlos Restrepo told us September 13 that the last round of peace talks with the ELN in Havana (August 20-24) achieved no progress. Senior Cuban officials did not believe the process would produce results, so they distanced themselves from it. Lower-level Cuban officials helped the ELN prepare its agenda but never pressed the group to agree to a ceasefire. It is impossible, Restrepo said, to use the Cubans as a lever against ELN. ¶3. (C) Restrepo said the ELN wanted to shift talks from Havana to Caracas because it believes it will have more political space, including opportunities to exploit internal differences within the GOV and the Venezuelan left. ELN leaders will also be safe and closer to Colombia. He said the GOC had blocked the shift to Caracas for months, but changed its view after Cuba refused to press the ELN. Uribe's acceptance of Chavez' role with the FARC sealed the switch to Caracas. The commissioner noted that even though the ELN is happy with the change of venue, ELN Central Committee (COCE) member and main negotiator Pablo Beltran refused to participate in a planned September 7 meeting with Restrepo and Chavez in Caracas. Restrepo said Beltran needed to consult first with the COCE, showing the ELN still lacks a political agenda or negotiating strategy. -------------- ELN Lacks Internal Consensus -------------- ¶4. (C) Restrepo said the ELN lacks an internal consensus on a way forward, since it does not have a clear vision of the political role it would play in a democratic system. Many ELN members continue to see themselves in the Leninist conception of a "vanguard". Their goal remains to exploit the peace process to rebuild public support for clandestine networks inside Colombia, especially in urban areas. They continue to hope for a rapprochement with the FARC, and want to exploit the Polo Democratico Party and other leftist parties to advance the armed struggle. This radical view is supported by ELN front leaders in Arauca, Choco, Narino, and Cauca who are deeply involved in narcotrafficking. The COCE is paralyzed with ELN leaders who favor peace unwilling to break with radical front leaders who control the fighters. ¶5. (C) Pax Christi officials Marianne Moor and Rodrigo Rojas, who met with Restrepo, Beltran, and other ELN negotiators (August 17-21),agreed the ELN is split over whether to continue drug trafficking and kidnapping. The GOC and ELN invited Pax Christi to sit at the table for the next round of talks in Caracas to facilitate hostage discussions. Beltran and Galan told the Pax officials they would prepare a "census" of ELN hostages (dead or alive) for Pax Christi by the end of September. The ELN hopes to use the census to invite numerous countries to be "international partners" in exchange for the release of "some" hostages. Moor told us the ELN wants U.S. participation in the process, and is eager to be removed from U.S. and European terrorism lists. Still, they said many ELN front commanders have no interest in dropping drugs and kidnapping. -------------- -- Chavez: ELN Success Can Shore Up Domestic Image -------------- -- ¶6. (C) Restrepo said the GOC believes Chavez wants rapid progress in the ELN talks to enhance his image as he deals with constitutional reform, economic difficulties, and unification of his party at home. Venezuelan popular discontent with ELN kidnappings inside Venezuela (25 victim families requested to meet with the GOC) creates another incentive for Chavez to press the ELN agree to a ceasefire. Restrepo added that Venezuelan involvement also offers the chance to explore new solutions to the ELN's refusal to concentrate its forces as part of a ceasefire accord. He said Chavez likes a GOC proposal that ELN leaders and mid-level commanders concentrate at a site on the Colombia-Venezuela border. Even if Chavez cannot produce a peace deal, the GOC hopes failure would prompt him to close the ELN's political space in Venezuela. -------------- Cuba-Venezuela Rivalry? -------------- ¶7. (C) Restrepo said the Cuba-Venezuela rivalry is strong. The Cubans could block progress out of spite. The Cubans, he noted, torpedoed a Mexican initiative with the ELN in 2004-05, forcing the ELN to pull out of talks after Mexico voted against Cuba on human rights at the UN. The GOC viewed other would-be participants in the process, such as Aldo Civico of Colombia University, Vicenc Fisas of Barcelona University, and local analyst Leon Valencia as problematic, because the ELN uses them to project a reasonable image outside of the negotiating table. The ELN also tries to access foreign funding through these groups. Still, Restrepo said the GOC believes it would best to incorporate these groups into the negotiating table to make their actions transparent. He urged Civico on September 14 to ask the ELN to support his inclusion in the talks, saying the GOC would approve such a request. Brownfield