ELECTORAL VIOLENCE DOWN, BUT STILL AN ISSUE IN

UNCLAS BOGOTA 006668 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PINR CO SUBJECT: ELECTORAL VIOLENCE DOWN, BUT STILL AN ISSUE IN SOME AREAS REF: A. BOGOTA 6013 B. BOGOTA 5431 C. BOGOTA 5116 ¶1. Summary: As the October 28 local elections draw near, violence against candidates continues in specific regions--though at lower levels than in previous elections. Contacts from political parties across the spectrum expect free and fair elections in spite of the limited violence. The FARC and new criminal groups have reportedly murdered forty-four candidates and kidnapped eight more this year, with all parties affected. Colombian media and human rights groups (including the US-funded Electoral Observation Mission (MOE)) are highlighting the threats in specific regions, as well as the GOC response. End Summary. FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS, DESPITE VIOLENCE -------------- ¶2. Colombian politicians from across the political spectrum tell us violence is a problem in specific regions, particularly in rural areas, but they expect the October elections to be generally free and fair. Over 70% of voters live in urban areas where violence is not a significant issue. Andreas Mejia-Vergnaud, director for the Institute of Liberty and Progress, voiced concern over the violence, but told us the integrity of the elections will not suffer. Polo Democratico Party President Carlos Gaviria pointed out the significance of Polo candidates running in areas numerous areas previously dominated by ex-paramilitaries (Cordoba, Sucre, Cesar). An advance team from the OAS election observation mission is expected in Bogota September 11. We will meet with the team on September 13. VIOLENCE INCREASES AS ELECTIONS APPROACH -------------- ¶3. News magazine "Semana" reported August 27 that forty-four candidates have been assassinated and another eight have been kidnapped in the run-up to the October 28 local elections. The politically motivated attacks were mostly attributed to the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and new criminal groups. In Aguachica in southern Cesar department, threats have forced candidates to travel with body guards and wear bullet-proof vests. Some candidates considered withdrawing after the assassination of local Liberal Party leader Anuar Yaver Cortes on August 16 at a town festival. On August 18, Minister of Defense Santos visited Aguachica to reassure candidates, leading them to continue their campaigns. From March-June in Aguachica, sixty people were injured in politically motivated attacks. The FARC and new criminal groups were reportedly responsible. ¶4. In April-July, the FARC focused attacks in parts of Antioquia, Meta, Valle and Caqueta. The FARC assassinated a Cambio Radical candidate in Itagui, Antioquia department, while new criminal groups threatened Polo Democratico candidates in Bello, Antioquia. In Meta, the Conservative party said it might withdraw its candidates after one was killed in June. The FARC also murdered a mayor in Valle, and four councilmen in Caqueta in the same period (ref C). RISKS AND REMEDIES -------------- ¶5. Colombian daily "El Tiempo" highlighted potential threats to the integrity of the upcoming elections and suggested measures to mitigate them. "El Tiempo" said a lack of transparency, possible voter intimidation, vote buying, drug money influence, and electoral manipulation are problems in many areas. New criminal groups are a concern in Catatumbo, Narino and Meta. The editorial also raised concerns that some politicians jailed in the para-political scandal were trying to influence local elections in their home regions. ¶6. El Tiempo urged the GOC and international community to prevent the threats from materializing. The paper recognized the GOC has already taken strong actions to protect the elections, including GOC civilian and security services meeting weekly to address threats and an inter-agency group established to respond to election issues as they arise (ref A). El Tiempo recommended including new voting machines and campaign finance reform for future elections. The paper also highlighted the GOC's request for an OAS observation mission, as well as civil society initiatives--including the US-funded Electoral Observation Mission (MOE) and other groups--to ensure free and fair elections. WHO,S AT RISK? -------------- ¶7. MOE detailed the areas of the country most at risk for possible problems (ref B) in an August 22 briefing, identifying municipalities in Meta, Choc, Antioquia, Bolivar, Arauca, Santander and Magdalena departments. Potential problems included voter irregularities, voter fraud and and violence. MOE also stressed the need for both international and domestic election observers. MOE will focus on voter education prior to elections and will also mount a major observation effort, including 10,000 trained observers, on election day. Brownfield