ELN PEACE TALKS STUCK OVER VERIFICATION AND ELN

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 005789 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/08/2017 TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL PREF PHUM CO SUBJECT: ELN PEACE TALKS STUCK OVER VERIFICATION AND ELN DISARRAY REF: BOGOTA 5118 Classified By: Political Counselor John Creamer - Reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) Summary. GOC-ELN peace talks are stuck over the ELN's refusal to accept the GOC terms for cease-fire monitoring and hostage release verification mechanisms. The ELN is looking for a new strategy to move the talks forward. Peace process "guarantor" Akerman is trying to convince ELN leaders to break the talks loose by declaring a unilateral cease-fire and release of ELN-held hostages. Catholic Church officials are also looking for a way to break the impasse, but privately doubt the ELN can commit to a settlement, citing the recent Church difficulties in trying to free ELN kidnap victims, growing ELN participation in the drug trade, and ELN re-mining to protect coca fields. End Summary. ELN Talks Stuck on Verification =============================== ¶2. (C) The July 14 round of peace talks in Havana between the GOC and National Liberation Army (ELN) stalled over GOC demands that the ELN agree to strict cease-fire monitoring and hostage release verification terms. Peace process "guarantor" Moritz Akerman told us the ELN had agreed to a six-month cessation of hostilities and to release ELN-held kidnapping victims, but would not agree to identify ELN front locations, notify the GOC of ELN fighter movement, and identify ELN urban front members--all firm GOC demands. Akerman said the ELN Central Committee (COCE) members were frustrated with what they saw as the GOC's hard-line position, felt they had already put their best cards (cease-fire, kidnap release) on the table, and were seeking new negotiating strategies. "Guarantor" Looking for Openings ================================ ¶3. (C) To move the talks forward, Akerman said he had formulated with COCE member Francisco Galan a confidential proposal for the ELN to declare a temporary, unilateral cease-fire and release of kidnap victims. Akerman briefed his proposal to OAS Support Mission for Peace in Colombia (OAS/MAPP) Director Sergio Caramagna on August 2, who reportedly agreed to fund Akerman's gambit to pitch his idea to ELN leaders. Akerman said he will try to sell his ideas to COCE member and ELN negotiator Pablo Beltran in Havana starting August 8. If Beltran and the COCE accept the proposal, he would return to Bogota to inform other guarantors, the international community, and the GOC before the ELN made its plan public. Akerman was not optimistic the full ELN leadership would agree to the proposal. The ELN was increasingly fractured, with many ELN fronts moving into drug trafficking and others suffering combat losses from the GOC and FARC. Catholic Church - Pessimistic Outlook ===================================== ¶4. (C) The Catholic Church's representative to the ELN peace talks, Father Dario Echeverri, told us he doubted the ELN's commitment to peace talks. Despite recent optimism voiced by some commentators like leftist El Tiempo columnist Leon Valencia that a deal is near, Echeverri said recent experiences trying to negotiate the release of three ELN-held kidnap victims (which led him to believe that COCE members, including Galan, were profiting from kidnappings),growing ELN involvement in the drug trade, and ELN re-mining to protect coca fields made him pessimistic the ELN could reach internal agreement on a verifiable peace deal. He said FARC opposition to a peace deal and the "regional environment" (leftist governments in Venezuela and Ecuador) were additional obstacles. Echeverri said COCE members Beltran and Juan Cuellar wanted to call a plenary meeting, including ELN urban fronts, to obtain a new mandate to negotiate. Echeverri added he was working with a small group on ideas to break the current impasse. Nichols