ON-AGAIN, OFF-AGAIN PEACE TALKS WITH ELN SET TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 005118

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREF PREL PTER CO
SUBJECT: ON-AGAIN, OFF-AGAIN PEACE TALKS WITH ELN SET TO
RESUME JULY 14

REF: BOGOTA 4995

Classified By: CDA Milton K. Drucker - Reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary. The on-again, off-again peace talks between
the GOC and ELN are set to resume July 14. ELN negotiator
Palbo Beltran said in an interview the ELN was willing to
agree to a cessation of hostilities and a release of
hostages, but admitted that serious differences with the GOC
on verification remain. The GOC saw the Beltran interview as
a "rupture" and delayed talks to pressure the ELN on hostages
and verification. Both sides met informally in Havana July
11 and 13, "trying to find north," and are set to
simultaneously address concerns when formal talks resume.
The GOC's primary goals is to free ELN hostages, and the
weakened ELN has minimal leverage to press for concessions.
End summary.

ELN Offers Cease-fire, Hostage Release
======================================

2. (U) Senior National Liberation Army (ELN) negotiators
involved in the latest round of peace talks that began in
mid-June in Havana said they are ready for a cessation of
hostilities and to release ELN-held hostages. On July 2,
"Semana" magazine published an interview with ELN negotiator
Pablo Beltran. He said the process "had advanced," and the
ELN hoped to resolve remaining differences with the GOC in
July. He added that the ELN would release hostages as soon
as a cessation of hostilities began, and that the ELN was
conducting an "inventory" of the "small quantity" of hostages
it held. He said differences remained with the GOC on
verification, concentration of ELN forces, and criminal
sanctions against ELN members.

Progress and Reassessment
=========================

3. (C) Moritz Akerman, who the GOC and ELN invited to Havana
to observe the talks as a "guarantor," asserted that June
talks had made "substantial progress" on a cease-fire and
possible release of ELN-held hostages. Talks scheduled to
reconvene on July 10 were suspended after the Beltran
interview. GOC Peace Commissioner Luis Carlos Restrepo told
Akerman the interview showed a lack of seriousness in the
process and represented a "rupture." Beltran told Akerman the
interview was calculated to recapture attention from the
GOC's June 4 release of senior FARC member Rodrigo Granda.


4. (C) Akerman said large differences remain on
verification. The GOC wants a defined zone for the
identification of ELN fronts and fighters, and a permanent
communication infrastructure to monitor ELN movements and
avoid conflict. The ELN could not give the GOC an answer
when asked how ELN urban fronts (what Akerman called "the
base of any future ELN political movement") would be
monitored. Akerman said ELN leaders were nonetheless
confident most ELN fronts would agree to terms of a peace
agreement, if one is signed. Still, he added the ELN
leadership committee was privately concerned some ELN fronts
in Narino known to be involved in drug trafficking could be a
problem. Finally, Akerman said that negotiators had not
discussed whether Justice and Peace Law provisions used to
determine punishments in the paramilitary peace process would
be applied to the ELN.


5. (C) The ELN has always insisted its members would not
accept jail time as the Justice and Peace Law specifies.
Moreover, if it negotiates a better deal than
ex-paramilitaries, Colombia's constitutional practice of
"favorability" would likely require that any less punitive
terms for the ELN be applied retroactively to the ex-paras.
Both GOC officials and members of the political opposition
tell us they are aware that loosening penalties for ex-paras,
even if due to "favorability," would cause President Alvaro
Uribe political pain both domestically and in the
international community.

Prospects: Talks Set for July 13
================================

6. (C) On July 11 and 13, Restrepo met informally with
Beltran in Havana to "try and find north" in the peace
process. Akerman said the GOC "re-assessed" its suspension
and the ELN was eager to resume formal talks. He said

Restrepo and Beltran agreed full negotiating teams would
resume talks July 14 to simultaneously address concerns from
both sides.

GOC Wants Hostages - ELN in Weak Position
=========================================

7. (C) President Uribe reportedly has one goal and issued
one order to Restrepo: Get back ELN kidnapping victims. All
other goals with the ELN are secondary. The ELN's ability to
attack the military, inflict casualties and kidnap has
deteriorated (Reftel),and the ELN's leverage is limited.
The GOC knows this and is not inclined to make concessions.
Sergio Caramagna head of the OAS' Mission for Peace Process
in Colombia (OAS-MAPP),told us the ELN process is unlikely
to move forward soon. He said the GOC is focused on the
FARC, and many ELN members think Beltran may be moving too
quickly on a cease-fire and release of kidnap victims.
Drucker