CENTRIST GAVIRIA CONSOLIDATES CONTROL OF LIBERALS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 004157 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/30/2017 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL PTER PREF CO SUBJECT: CENTRIST GAVIRIA CONSOLIDATES CONTROL OF LIBERALS AS PARTY PREPARES FOR LOCAL AND NATIONAL CAMPAIGNS Classified By: Political Counselor John Creamer - Reasons 1.5 (b,d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Former President and Liberal Party chief Cesar Gaviria marginalized leftist elements and strengthened his hold of the opposition party in a recent Liberal congress, preparing the party to fight October local and 2010 national elections on a centrist platform. The change is good news for the U.S: Gaviria lobbied to win a party vote to support the U.S.-Colombia Free Trade Agreement (FTA),and key Liberals say the party should be more receptive to U.S. counterdrug and counterterrorism policies. Still, supporters of Colombia's once-dominant Liberal Party have their loyalties divided between the Liberals and several offshoots. Gaviria's success in encouraging dissident Liberals to "come home" will go a long way in determining his party's success in 2010. End Summary Cesar Gavira Takes Control -------------- ¶2. (C) Former president and OAS secretary general Cesar Gaviria emerged from an April 27-29 Liberal Party congress in Medellin with firm control over the party machinery and a mandate to promote centrist policies as the party gears up for October municipal and 2010 national elections. Almost 1,300 delegates re-elected Gaviria party chief with almost 75 percent of the vote. The congress also gave Gaviria the authority to choose candidates for key mayor and governors races in October, bar those with questionable backgrounds from running in all races, and to control Party finances. Gaviria has already barred local politicians in the previously paramilitary-dominated capital of Cesar from running under the Liberal banner. "Left" Out in the Cold -------------- ¶3. (C) Gaviria's victory was a defeat for three-time presidential loser Horacio Serpa and the Liberal left wing, which represents between ten and twenty percent of party rank and file. Still, the left wing block includes prominent Liberals, including party spokesman Juan Cristo, and Senators Piedad Cordoba, Camilo Sanchez, and Hector Rojas In May, Serpa announced he is running for governor of his home state, Santander, effectively sidelining him from national politics whether he wins or loses. Several Liberals told poloff Cordoba and a small number of other leftists would be more at home in the Polo Democratico Party, but the new "Ley de Bancadas" prohibits them from switching parties while in office. Prospects for Local Elections -------------- ¶4. (U) Liberals are upbeat about their chances in the October elections, but admit they will need to form alliances in many of the most critical races--like the Bogota mayor's campaign--to win. The Party now holds 228 mayoral and 12 governors seats, by far the most of any party, and Liberals consistently poll as the leading party in Colombia. Still, many of those identifying themselves as Liberals vote for new parties made up of former Liberals, such as the U Party or Cambio Radical. The Liberals and Cambio Radical announced they will support independent candidate Enrique Penalosa (a former Liberal and Bogota mayor from 1998-2002) in the Bogota mayor's race. Liberal candidates for other races will be chosen in July 8 "consultas" (primaries); the party will field candidates in almost all important races in the country. A View Towards 2010 Presidential Elections -------------- ¶5. (C) After three consecutive defeats in presidential elections, including a devastating third place finish in 2006, Gaviria is shifting the Liberals to the center in anticipation of October and the 2010 presidential elections. He recognizes Colombia's electorate is predominantly center-right, and does not want to lock the party into a dispute with the Polo Democratico for the left's 25 percent share of the electorate. Many Liberals say Gaviria is seeking a rapprochement with President Uribe and/or Cambio Radical leader German Vargas Lleras (both former Liberals). Gaviria told polcouns the Liberal Party decision to support the Free Trade Agreement had improved relations between the Liberals and the GOC. Some analysts expect Uribe and the Liberals to close ranks as 2010 approaches. Beside Vargas Lleras, other potential candidates with former Liberal ties include Vice President Francisco Santos, Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos, and Medellin Mayor Sergio Fajardo. Gaviria's success in stitching the Liberal coalition back together will go a long way in determining his party's success in 2010. Liberal - USG Interests Converging -------------- ¶6. (C) Gaviria cannot completely ignore his party's left wing, but he is well-positioned to continue his party's move to the center. After intensive lobbying by Gaviria, approximately two-thirds of the Party's legislators voted on May 23 to support the FTA. Liberal leaders called this an important victory for the pro-free trade Gaviria's efforts to develop a moderate policy agenda. They told poloff a more centrist Liberal party is likely to develop positions more closely in line with USG interests on counterdrug operations, counterterrorism, extradition, and trade. Drucker