GOC-ELN TALKS APPEAR STALLED, ELN POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 002103

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/29/2017
TAGS: PTER PHUM MARR CO
SUBJECT: GOC-ELN TALKS APPEAR STALLED, ELN POLITICAL
MISCALCULATIONS CONTINUE

REF: BOGOTA 1558

Classified By: Political Counselor John S. Creamer
Reason: 1.4 (b,d)

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Summary
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1. (C) GOC-ELN talks appear stalled, largely because the
ELN calculates the GOC will weaken as a result of the
"parapolitical" scandal and offer more generous terms. The
ELN's miscalculation is not surprising. The terrorist group
has a long history of misreading the country's political
situation. President Uribe is insisting on Justice and Peace
Law terms for the ELN, as a sign of respect for ELN victims
and to ensure the paramilitaries do not benefit from the ELN
peace process. End summary.

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Talks Appear Stalled
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2. (C) Norwegian Charge Dag Nylander and guarantor Alvaro
Jimenez told us separately March 28 the GOC-ELN talks
appeared stalled. Jimenez said a series of February talks in
Havana were positive but did not result in a breakthrough.
ELN negotiator Francisco Galan was unable to travel to Havana
because he could not obtain the judicial approval he required
as a former prisoner on conditional release. (We understand
from the Prosecutor General's office that the lack of
approval was an administrative matter associated with
transferring Galan's case from one judge to another, and not
designed to impede his travel or participation in the talks.)
Nylander said further talks are planned for late April.

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ELN Political Miscalculations
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3. (C) Jimenez and fellow guarantor Moritz Akerman said the
ELN leadership regarded the "parapolitical" scandal as
weakening the GOC. The ELN seemed to be calculating that it
could obtain better terms from an Uribe Administration that
continued to suffer revelations about its congressional
supporters' alleged collaboration with paramilitaries.
Akerman and Jimenez said they had told the ELN it was
misreading the situation, to no avail.


4. (C) The ELN has told the GOC it is committed to a
ceasefire and will release its kidnap victims, but the ELN
persists in trying to force the GOC to guarantee specific
social reforms the ELN regards as essential to validate its
"revolutionary struggle." For its part, the GOC has offered
the ELN a national convention-type event, at which ELN
figures could explain their proposals to Colombia's elected
representatives and seek their support. Akerman said the ELN
views the convention proposal as positive, but without
guaranteed results the ELN fears ending up with nothing to
show for its "struggle." Restrepo told us the ELN's position
is unrealistic given its lack of political support and
military capacity.

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GOC Firm on Justice for ELN Victims
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5. (C) Presidential speechwriter and Uribe confidant Jose
Obdulio Gavria told us March 28 the president had decided the
ELN must accept Justice and Peace Law terms in any peace
process, or similar terms under a different name. ELN
victims deserved the same respect and justice as victims of
paramilitary human rights abuses. The GOC was highly
reluctant to offer the ELN a better deal, because any such
benefits would have to be extended to the paramilitaries as
well.

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Comment
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6. (C) The ELN's miscalculations are not surprising. The
terrorist group has a long history of misreading Colombia's

political situation, as well as overestimating its bargaining
position. The GOC has been generous with the ELN. Uribe's
insistence on Justice and Peace Law terms reflects a shift
from his previous view that the ELN could receive more
lenient treatment.
Drucker