OPPOSITION LEADERS RELEASED; BY-ELECTION RESULTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 000518

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/03/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KG
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADERS RELEASED; BY-ELECTION RESULTS
CANCELLED

REF: BISHKEK 492

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Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Late on April 27, United Front leaders
Omurbek Abdrahmanov, Omurbek Suvanaliyev, and United Front
youth leader Adilet Aitikeev were released from custody. The
three had been held by the state security service (GKNB)
since April 23 in connection with the opposition's April
11-19 mass demonstration. The Ambassador met with
Abdrahmanov on April 29 and with Suvanaliyev on May 3; both
were in good spirits, and Suvanaliyev claimed he had been
offered a government post following his release. POLOFF met
with Aitikeev April 30; Aitikeev claimed that GKNB officials
had threatened him following an interview he gave to internet
news site "24.kg."


2. (SBU) The Kyrgyz Central Election Commission cancelled the
results from the April 29 parliamentary by-election in Kemin
amid charges of widespread fraud and because "none of the
above" came out on top. Bermet Akayeva, daughter of former
President Askar Akayev, had been kept off the ballot by an
April 27 Supreme Court ruling that she failed to meet the
residency requirement. Following the Court's decision,
Akayeva was reportedly questioned by regional Ministry of
Interior officials for several hours, and later taken to
hospital for fatigue. She was released from the hospital on
May 2. END SUMMARY.

DETENTION ENDS, BUT SCRUTINY CONTINUES
--------------


3. (SBU) On April 28, United Front leaders Omurbek
Abdrahmanov, Omurbek Suvanaliyev, and youth leader Adilet
Aitikeev were released from GKNB custody, following calls for
their release by several prominent MPs and civil society.
The three had been held since April 23. Abdrahmanov and
Suvanaliyev still face charges of causing "mass disorder" in
connection with the opposition's April 11-19 demonstration in
Bishkek.


4. (C) On April 29 the Ambassador met with Abdrahmanov, who
was in good spirits. He thanked the Ambassador and others
who had pressed for his release. The Ambassador met May 3
with Suvanaliyev. Suvanaliyev claimed that following his
release, Presidential Chief of Staff Sadyrkulov had offered
him a government post, either chief of police or head of the
security council. Suvanaliyev said that he told Sadyrkulov
that he wanted instead to serve as governor of Talas or
Naryn. Suvanaliyev said that he wanted to broaden his
experience beyond law enforcement in order later to run for
parliament. He claimed that the government was seriously
considering his proposal.


5. (C) On April 29, POLOFF met with Aitikeev, after human
rights NGO leader Tolekan Ismailova told us that Aitikeev had
received threatening phone calls from the GKNB. A visibly
shaken Aitikeev told POLOFF that he feared for his life, and
the lives of his family members, because of the GKNB's
ongoing intimidation. He said that the GKNB threatened to
re-arrest him, even if they did not have a warrant, following
an interview he gave to online news site 24.kg upon his
release from GKNB detention. Aitikeev also said that they
had threatened to kill him if he remained active in the
opposition and provided additional interviews to the press.
Aitikeev, along with his mother and girlfriend, were afraid
to leave Ismailova's office due to their fear of the GKNB.


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KULOV -- ALL ALONE
--------------


6. (C) Kulov has called for a "kurultai" on May 5 in his home
village, but it is not expected that many will attend. His
closest lieutenant, Suvanaliyev, said that Kulov made many
mistakes: he should have insisted on getting the PM job
back; he should have personally led the demonstrations; and
he should have immediately and vigorously sought the release
of the three opposition leaders. Suvanaliyev claimed that
Kulov appeared frightened and had lost much of his authority.
For his part, Suvanaliyev was actively distancing himself
from Kulov; "one has to be realistic," he explained.

LESSONS LEARNED
--------------


7. (SBU) On April 28, several prominent opposition leaders,
civil society activists, and government officials met to
discuss lessons learned from the April 11-19 United Front-led
demonstration. During the meeting, many commented that the
opposition's lack of unified demands created uncertainty and
frustration among the demonstrators. Opposition MP Temir
Sariyev noted that with some demonstrators calling for
constitutional reforms, and others demanding President
Bakiyev's immediate resignation, the "united" opposition was
anything but. The length of the demonstration was also an
issue, according to opposition supporters, as the
demonstrators' will to maintain their presence on Ala-Too
Square diminished as the "ongoing" demonstration continued
without any end in sight. Government participants in the
meeting, including State Secretary Madumarov, said that
neither the government nor the opposition could declare
victory following the demonstration. He went on to say that
political opposition is needed to keep the leadership on its
toes, and promised to work with opposition forces to avoid
future political crises.

DRAFT CONSTITUTION DISCUSSED, AND CRITICIZED
--------------


8. (C) A roundtable discussion, attended by PM Almaz
Atambayev, political party representatives, and civil society
NGOs, was held April 30 to discuss the draft constitution --
created by PM Atambayev's working group -- that is currently
under review by the Constitutional Court. In the meeting, PM
Atambayev insisted that a balance of powers has been achieved
within the draft, and claimed that the aim of his working
group was to revive and implement the amendments made to the
November 2006 constitution. He also said that some
presidential powers were reduced, enabling the Cabinet and
Parliament to gain more responsibilities. Political party
representatives and civil society activists, including Roza
Otunbayeva, hoped that the role of political parties would be
enhanced as well. Political commentators Valentin Bogatyryov
and Muratbek Imanaliyev relayed to the Ambassador separately
their belief that Kyrgyz society would continue to be
disappointed, as the PM's draft constitution lacked substance
and a vision for the future. They also called the
constitution and its principal drafter a "dead end."

BERMET BARRED, KEMIN BY-ELECTION RESULTS CANCELLED
-------------- --------------


9. (SBU) The Central Election Commission cancelled the
results from the April 29 parliamentary by-election in Kemin
amid accusations of widespread fraud and because "none of the
above" beat out all the other candidates. An April 27

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Supreme Court ruling kept Bermet Akayeva, daughter of former
President Askar Akayev, off the ballot. The Supreme Court
upheld the Kemin district court's ruling that Akayeva failed
to meet residency requirements. Following the ruling,
Akayeva was taken in by the Kemin Regional Department for
Internal Affairs (ROVD) for questioning. She was later taken
to hospital for fatigue, and released on May 2. Her lawyer
claimed that Akayeva was not provided food or drink during
the nine hour "interrogation," and that the ROVD violated the
law by holding Akayeva overnight on a weekend.

COMMENT
--------------


10. (C) For now, it seems the political situation remains
relatively calm, as the opposition licks its wounds and goes
on vacation for the May holidays (many take off the first two
weeks of May because of three public holidays). Most
commentators expect the calm to last through the summer, but
expect things to heat up in the fall if there is no progress
on constitutional and other reforms. Successfully having
split the opposition, Presidential Chief of Staff Sadyrkulov
told the Ambassador that the government will focus on the
economy and the SCO summit over the summer.
YOVANOVITCH