OPPOSITION LEADERS RELEASED; BY-ELECTION RESULTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 000518 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/03/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL KG SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADERS RELEASED; BY-ELECTION RESULTS CANCELLED REF: BISHKEK 492 BISHKEK 00000518 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Late on April 27, United Front leaders Omurbek Abdrahmanov, Omurbek Suvanaliyev, and United Front youth leader Adilet Aitikeev were released from custody. The three had been held by the state security service (GKNB) since April 23 in connection with the opposition's April 11-19 mass demonstration. The Ambassador met with Abdrahmanov on April 29 and with Suvanaliyev on May 3; both were in good spirits, and Suvanaliyev claimed he had been offered a government post following his release. Poloff met with Aitikeev April 30; Aitikeev claimed that GKNB officials had threatened him following an interview he gave to internet news site "24.kg." ¶2. (SBU) The Kyrgyz Central Election Commission cancelled the results from the April 29 parliamentary by-election in Kemin amid charges of widespread fraud and because "none of the above" came out on top. Bermet Akayeva, daughter of former President Askar Akayev, had been kept off the ballot by an April 27 Supreme Court ruling that she failed to meet the residency requirement. Following the Court's decision, Akayeva was reportedly questioned by regional Ministry of Interior officials for several hours, and later taken to hospital for fatigue. She was released from the hospital on May 2. END SUMMARY. DETENTION ENDS, BUT SCRUTINY CONTINUES -------------- ¶3. (SBU) On April 28, United Front leaders Omurbek Abdrahmanov, Omurbek Suvanaliyev, and youth leader Adilet Aitikeev were released from GKNB custody, following calls for their release by several prominent MPs and civil society. The three had been held since April 23. Abdrahmanov and Suvanaliyev still face charges of causing "mass disorder" in connection with the opposition's April 11-19 demonstration in Bishkek. ¶4. (C) On April 29 the Ambassador met with Abdrahmanov, who was in good spirits. He thanked the Ambassador and others who had pressed for his release. The Ambassador met May 3 with Suvanaliyev. Suvanaliyev claimed that following his release, Presidential Chief of Staff Sadyrkulov had offered him a government post, either chief of police or head of the security council. Suvanaliyev said that he told Sadyrkulov that he wanted instead to serve as governor of Talas or Naryn. Suvanaliyev said that he wanted to broaden his experience beyond law enforcement in order later to run for parliament. He claimed that the government was seriously considering his proposal. ¶5. (C) On April 29, Poloff met with Aitikeev, after human rights NGO leader Tolekan Ismailova told us that Aitikeev had received threatening phone calls from the GKNB. A visibly shaken Aitikeev told Poloff that he feared for his life, and the lives of his family members, because of the GKNB's ongoing intimidation. He said that the GKNB threatened to re-arrest him, even if they did not have a warrant, following an interview he gave to online news site 24.kg upon his release from GKNB detention. Aitikeev also said that they had threatened to kill him if he remained active in the opposition and provided additional interviews to the press. Aitikeev, along with his mother and girlfriend, were afraid to leave Ismailova's office due to their fear of the GKNB. BISHKEK 00000518 002.2 OF 003 KULOV -- ALL ALONE -------------- ¶6. (C) Kulov has called for a "kurultai" on May 5 in his home village, but it is not expected that many will attend. His closest lieutenant, Suvanaliyev, said that Kulov made many mistakes: he should have insisted on getting the PM job back; he should have personally led the demonstrations; and he should have immediately and vigorously sought the release of the three opposition leaders. Suvanaliyev claimed that Kulov appeared frightened and had lost much of his authority. For his part, Suvanaliyev was actively distancing himself from Kulov; "one has to be realistic," he explained. LESSONS LEARNED -------------- ¶7. (SBU) On April 28, several prominent opposition leaders, civil society activists, and government officials met to discuss lessons learned from the April 11-19 United Front-led demonstration. During the meeting, many commented that the opposition's lack of unified demands created uncertainty and frustration among the demonstrators. Opposition MP Temir Sariyev noted that with some demonstrators calling for constitutional reforms, and others demanding President Bakiyev's immediate resignation, the "united" opposition was anything but. The length of the demonstration was also an issue, according to opposition supporters, as the demonstrators' will to maintain their presence on Ala-Too Square diminished as the "ongoing" demonstration continued without any end in sight. Government participants in the meeting, including State Secretary Madumarov, said that neither the government nor the opposition could declare victory following the demonstration. He went on to say that political opposition is needed to keep the leadership on its toes, and promised to work with opposition forces to avoid future political crises. DRAFT CONSTITUTION DISCUSSED, AND CRITICIZED -------------- ¶8. (C) A roundtable discussion, attended by PM Almaz Atambayev, political party representatives, and civil society NGOs, was held April 30 to discuss the draft constitution -- created by PM Atambayev's working group -- that is currently under review by the Constitutional Court. In the meeting, PM Atambayev insisted that a balance of powers has been achieved within the draft, and claimed that the aim of his working group was to revive and implement the amendments made to the November 2006 constitution. He also said that some presidential powers were reduced, enabling the Cabinet and Parliament to gain more responsibilities. Political party representatives and civil society activists, including Roza Otunbayeva, hoped that the role of political parties would be enhanced as well. Political commentators Valentin Bogatyryov and Muratbek Imanaliyev relayed to the Ambassador separately their belief that Kyrgyz society would continue to be disappointed, as the PM's draft constitution lacked substance and a vision for the future. They also called the constitution and its principal drafter a "dead end." BERMET BARRED, KEMIN BY-ELECTION RESULTS CANCELLED -------------- -------------- ¶9. (SBU) The Central Election Commission cancelled the results from the April 29 parliamentary by-election in Kemin amid accusations of widespread fraud and because "none of the above" beat out all the other candidates. An April 27 BISHKEK 00000518 003.2 OF 003 Supreme Court ruling kept Bermet Akayeva, daughter of former President Askar Akayev, off the ballot. The Supreme Court upheld the Kemin district court's ruling that Akayeva failed to meet residency requirements. Following the ruling, Akayeva was taken in by the Kemin Regional Department for Internal Affairs (ROVD) for questioning. She was later taken to hospital for fatigue, and released on May 2. Her lawyer claimed that Akayeva was not provided food or drink during the nine hour "interrogation," and that the ROVD violated the law by holding Akayeva overnight on a weekend. COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (C) For now, it seems the political situation remains relatively calm, as the opposition licks its wounds and goes on vacation for the May holidays (many take off the first two weeks of May because of three public holidays). Most commentators expect the calm to last through the summer, but expect things to heat up in the fall if there is no progress on constitutional and other reforms. Successfully having split the opposition, Presidential Chief of Staff Sadyrkulov told the Ambassador that the government will focus on the economy and the SCO summit over the summer. YOVANOVITCH