KYRGYZ OPPOSITION CLAIMS HARASSMENT FOLLOWING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000492 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/27/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KG SUBJECT: KYRGYZ OPPOSITION CLAIMS HARASSMENT FOLLOWING DEMONSTRATION REF: BISHKEK 486 BISHKEK 00000492 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On April 26, the Kyrgyz Prosecutor General brought criminal charges against United Front leaders Omurbek Suvanaliyev and Omurbek Abdrakhmanov for "mass disorder" associated with the opposition's April 11-19 demonstration. Suvanaliyev and Abdrakhmanov, along with United Front youth leader Adilet Aitikeeev, have been held by the state security service (GKNB) since April 23. A small group of protestors demonstrated in front of GKNB demanding their release. On April 27, United Front leader Felix Kulov went to GKNB headquarters to offer himself in exchange for the three detainees, but the GKNB rejected the proposed swap. Meanwhile, Bermet Akayeva's candidacy for the April 29 parliamentary by-election in Kemin remains in limbo, with the case now before the Supreme Court. END SUMMARY. CONTINUED DETENTION -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On April 26, the Kyrgyz Prosecutor General's Office formally charged United Front leaders Omurbek Suvanalyev and Omurbek Abdrakhmanov with organizing "mass disorder" in connection with the opposition's April 11-19 anti-government demonstration in Bishkek. Suvanaliyev and Abdrakhmanov were taken in for questioning by the GKNB on April 23, and they, along with United Front youth leader Adilet Aitikeev, have been in custody since. A small group of demonstrators has protested the detentions in front of the Prosecutor General's office, the parliament, and GKNB headquarters. There was also a report that 300 demonstrators had gathered in Suvanliyev's home district in Talas. The demonstrators claimed that the government was abusing its powers by seeking out additional opposition supporters for questioning and continuing to put pressure on pro-opposition media outlets. On April 26, police officers searched the home of opposition newspaper Kyrgyz Rukhu's chief editor. ¶3. (SBU) On April 27, United Front leader Felix Kulov told a press conference that he would stick it out and fight to the end. He claimed to have evidence that the disorder on April 19 was organized by the security services. He later went to GKNB headquarters to offer himself in exchange for the three detainees, but the GKNB rejected the proposed swap. 
 BERMET AKAYEVA'S CANDIDACY STILL UNCLEAR -------------- ¶4. (SBU) With two days to go before the April 29 parliamentary by-election in Kemin, the candidacy of Bermet Akayeva, daughter of former President Akayev, remains unclear as two separate, contradictory court rulings this week in Kemin both authorized and cancelled her candidacy. Akayeva has appealed to the Supreme Court for a final ruling. The Supreme Court was reportedly considering the case the afternoon of April 27, as small groups demonstrated both for and against her outside the court building. CIVIL SOCIETY OPPOSES HARASSMENT, SEEKS RESOLUTION -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Ambassador met April 26 with civil society activists Raya Kydyrova, Asiya Sasykbayeva, Medet Tiulegenov, and Kuban Omuraliev, who criticized government for increasing harassment against the opposition. They believed that President Bakiyev and his cronies would use their strong positions to try to squash the opposition and any prospects for reform, and they felt the situation would get worse before it gets any better. They commented that the only way BISHKEK 00000492 002.2 OF 002 to change current realities would be to reform the system through the adoption of a new constitution -- drafted in consultation with international bodies, such as the Venice Commission -- and by empowering the disconnected society through an independent, public television station. They said that they were planning another "Civic Forum" for June to discuss civil society's concerns. ¶6. (C) Concerned that the government has ignored the rule of law, the group said pro-Bakiyev forces were working freely to disband the opposition. The group was alarmed at Minister of Justice Kaiypov's April 26 statement that the government was looking to change the law on public demonstrations, setting a certain time, place, and other restrictions. They were also concerned about Kaiypov's assessment that the United Front's activities during the April 11-19 demonstration were illegal because the Front was not a registered organization. The group also cited the Bermet Akayeva case as an example of Bakiyev using his influence over the judicial system, claiming that a judge from the South was brought to Kemin to overturn the initial positive ruling allowing Akayeva to run. ¶7. (C) Looking ahead, the group speculated that a new political landscape was being formed, with certain parliamentarians using their independence -- in terms of wealth, political orientation, and access to criminal elements -- to effect change from within the current system. They named Murat Sultanov, Akmatbek Keldibekov, and Kamchibek Tashiyev as members of this new "third force" which could capitalize on the lack of success of both the government and the opposition. However, the presence of pro-Bakiyev MPs remained a wild card, according to the group, which could prolong the struggle for reform, and delay consideration of a new constitution. Regionalism and the north-south divide were also mentioned as issues of concern, with the possibility that tensions could boil over into civil war. With the leadership only thinking about themselves and how to protect their assets, the prospect of social, political change remained unlikely, said the group. All agreed, however, that the system did need to be changed, so that when reforms are made, they will last. COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) The charges against United Front leaders Suvanaliyev and Abdrakhmanov seem designed to intimidate other opposition leaders and civil society, but many in the opposition believe that the government is overplaying its hand and that the charges of "mass disorder" are clearly not applicable to the situation last week. We are hearing that people in the North, who were largely disinterested in the April demonstration, are now feeling angry and humiliated at the way the "Southerners" broke up the demonstration. The opposition believes that the use of southern security forces against northern demonstrators exacerbated the regional divide. The last minute controversy over Akayeva's candidacy also has the potential to raise her standing, if it is perceived that the government is acting to block her candidacy, and there is a possibility that she will align with opposition members. While the opposition seems to have lost this round, everyone expects further demonstrations in the fall. Two factors will be critical: how the government handles the opposition over the next few weeks; and whether constitutional reform moves forward. YOVANOVITCH