GRIM ASSESSMENT PROVIDED BY INFLUENTIAL KYRGYZ MP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000487 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/26/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KG SUBJECT: GRIM ASSESSMENT PROVIDED BY INFLUENTIAL KYRGYZ MP REF: BISHKEK 365 BISHKEK 00000487 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: A meeting between opposition MP Kubatbek Baibolov and SCA DAS Evan Feigenbaum April 19 revealed that Baibolov, at least, has little hope for a near-term solution to Kyrgyzstan's political instability. Baibolov said that the struggle for power and resources between rival clans remained the core explanation for the country's dilemmas, and was doubtful that constitutional reforms alone could resolve the current standoff. Ever melodramatic, he forecast that if a resolution was not found, civil war could ensue. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) SCA DAS Evan Feigenbaum met April 19 with senior opposition MP Kubatbek Baibolov, who provided a relentlessly pessimistic assessment of Kyrgyzstan's political environment. (NOTE: This meeting took place hours before Kyrgyz police cleared Ala-Too Square, effectively ending the nine-day-old opposition protests. END NOTE.) Comparing Kyrgyzstan with Afghanistan during the latter years of Soviet occupation, Baibolov said that the problems in the Kyrgyz Republic stem from deep roots associated with clan relations, in addition to the country's struggle to transform quickly from a feudal system to a democratic state. With those in power unwilling to relinquish authority, and those in opposition attempting to grab hold of that power by force, the country remains at a standstill, remarked Baibolov. He added that, with this struggle for power and authority ever present, the adoption of a reformed constitution would do little to resolve Kyrgyzstan's ongoing political and economic dilemmas. CIVIL WAR INEVITABLE? -------------- ¶3. (C) Baibolov commented that the country was entering a period of dramatic developments, with a president unwilling to understand Kyrgyzstan's needs. Instead, claimed Baibolov, President Bakiyev has sought only to preserve his own authority -- even if it means starting a civil war. Baibolov said that, despite his own efforts to draft a version of the constitution that could act as a "bridge" between the president and opposition, Bakiyev has refused to consider the text. He noted that the president has not examined PM Atambayev's version either (Note: Bakiyev forwarded Atambayev,s version to Parliament for consideration. End Note). Baibolov believed that, because of the president's intolerance to change, any minor incident or provocation could lead to unstoppable civil unrest. He promised, however, that he would call for a peaceful resolution and try to dissuade opposition supporters from using force -- as that was how Bakiyev came to power. ¶4. (C) Baibolov said that his support for the demonstrations would stop if the parliament continued to "do nothing," and if Bakiyev continued to lead the country to certain disaster. He also lambasted opposition supporters -- like "U.S.-loving" Edil Baisalov -- for walking back their demand for Bakiyev's resignation, and voicing their "support" for the president. Baibolov said that such shifts in strategy, together with unrealistic promises of dramatic change, have frustrated many in Kyrgyz society -- including those demonstrating on Ala-Too square. He confided that, if the demonstrations produce intangible results, he might soon ask for political asylum -- as "anything" could happen. (NOTE: Baibolov noted that a woman had tried to attack him while he was getting into his car earlier in the day. Baibolov has also significantly increased his personal security detachment, and arrived with a retinue of thick-necked body guards and a chase vehicle following his own armored Mercedes. END NOTE.) BISHKEK 00000487 002.2 OF 002 NEGOTIATIONS UNDERWAY -------------- ¶5. (C) Despite his grim assessment, Baibolov said that negotiations between the government and opposition -- headed by presidential chief of staff Medet Sadyrkulov -- were underway. He noted that while Sadyrkulov and PM Atambayev have been willing to meet with opposition leaders, Bakiyev himself remained aloof. Baibolov said that the crisis could come to an end, as a result of negotiations -- but only without Bakiyev, as the president had already revealed his unwillingness to cooperate with the opposition. As the demonstrations represent a struggle for power and resources, concluded Baibolov, it will take time to improve Kyrgyzstan's democratic development -- time that many in the opposition believe the country does not have. COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) Baibolov's relentlessly downbeat assessment provides further confirmation that the raw struggle for power and control of Kyrgyzstan,s resources among rival clans continues to be the main impetus for the clash between the government and opposition. While not the first time Baibolov has provided such a grim outlook for Kyrgyzstan's future, it contrasted sharply with his confidence two weeks prior (reftel),when he insisted that the opposition could compel reform. During the meeting with DAS Feigenbaum, which took place just hours before Ministry of Interior forces cleared out the demonstrators on Ala-Too Square on April 19, Baibolov dramatically stated that he was ready to issue a statement denouncing all sides and removing himself from the political arena. However, we note that in the early hours of the morning of April 20, Baibolov was once again meeting with Prime Minister Atambayev )- and presumably had not taken himself out of the game. ¶7. (U) This cable has been cleared by DAS Evan Feigenbaum. YOVANOVITCH