KULOV: SOME FLEXIBILITY, BUT NO CLEAR PLAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000449 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL KG SUBJECT: KULOV: SOME FLEXIBILITY, BUT NO CLEAR PLAN REF: BISHKEK 374 BISHKEK 00000449 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: SCA DAS Evan Feigenbaum met April 17 with former Prime Minister and leader of the United Front Felix Kulov. Kulov claimed that the main goal of the "non-stop" demonstration was constitutional reform, and because President Bakiyev was stalling on reforms, the demonstrators demanded that he resign. Kulov did not articulate a plan for a way forward, nor did he explain how the crowd on the square would force Bakiyev to resign. Kulov indicated that they could be flexible in their demands if Bakiyev took steps on reform. Kulov said little new during the meeting, and he appeared apprehensive when pressed even mildly on points. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) United Front leader Felix Kulov told SCA DAS Evan Feigenbaum April 17 that the current "period of turbulence" would continue until the constitution was changed to curb presidential powers and make the office "less attractive." Kulov said that Bakiyev's family -- his brothers and sons -- currently abused the "unlimited power" of the presidency for corrupt ends. Kulov said that pressure from the United Front had forced Bakiyev to start to take steps toward change, such as appointing Atambayev prime minister and submitting the working group's draft constitutional changes to parliament. However, Bakiyev was likely to change his mind (on any reforms),as he had in November and December, and the pro-Bakiyev faction in parliament was prepared to prevent debate on the proposed constitutional changes. ¶3. (C) Kulov complained about government "provocations" against the United Front, including beatings and burning cars. He also noted the death in custody of one of the participants in the United Front hunger strike. Kulov said that he had never allowed force against demonstrators when he was prime minister, but the current spate of incidents showed that Atambayev did not have influence over the government. Kulov said there had been threats against opposition MPs and their families, and that pressure from pro-Bakiyev, southern MPs had broken the parliament into two pieces. He said that opposition deputies were considering a move to dissolve the parliament -- an outcome Kulov thought would be fair, because the current parliament cannot function. ¶4. (C) Asked by DAS Feigenbaum about the goals of the demonstration, Kulov acknowledged that the current demonstration had been "quiet" compared to the November rallies, but said his goal had not been to take power in one day. Rather, he said, he intended to bring about systemic change. DAS Feigenbaum noted that there appeared to be two tracks to the opposition's demands: the first was over how to share power between the branches of government, and the second, apparently more significant track, was over who should have power. Kulov said that the fight for power was minor compared to constitutional reform, but because Bakiyev was stalling on constitutional reform, they were demanding that he resign. ¶5. (C) DAS Feigenbaum asked what all this meant operationally for the United Front and the demonstration. Kulov said that Bakiyev "well understood" that they could keep demonstrators -- 1000 overnight and 7000 during the day -- on the square for a long time, and that they could easily triple the numbers, if necessary. Kulov said it might take ten to fifteen days to force negotiations, but it was necessary to sit down with Bakiyev and negotiate directly. Kulov said that if Bakiyev moved forward on reforms, the United Front BISHKEK 00000449 002.2 OF 002 could be flexible. Kulov said that they could call for early presidential elections in "one or two years" and drop the demand for immediate resignation. Kulov said that early parliamentary elections were "inevitable," but he did not want to push that yet, as it would be a distraction. ¶6. (C) DAS Feigenbaum emphasized that the U.S. had an interest in the process, that both sides must act non-violently, legally, and constitutionaly. Kulov pledged there would be no violence from his side. ¶7. (C) COMMENT: Kulov said little new during the meeting, and he was unable to explain concretely any plan for a way forward. When asked straightforward questions about how the United Front planned to manage the demonstration or achieve its stated goals, Kulov seemed apprehensive and sweat began to run down his face in rivulets. "Iron Felix" seemed like a man unsure what to do next. ¶8. (U) This cable has been cleared by DAS Feigenbaum. YOVANOVITCH