SCENESETTER FOR DAS FEIGENBAUM'S VISIT TO BISHKEK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BISHKEK 000413 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN DUSHANBE PLEASE PASS TO DAS FEIGENBAUM E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR KG SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR DAS FEIGENBAUM'S VISIT TO BISHKEK BISHKEK 00000413 001.2 OF 004 Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Your visit comes at an unsettled time in Kyrgyzstan. To this point (mid-day April 13),the "non-stop" anti-Bakiyev protest called by former Prime Minister Kulov has failed to gain momentum. The demonstration is not over, however, and there is still a risk that a misstep or a provocation could lead to violence. In the run-up to the demonstration, President Bakiyev offered a number of concessions and compromises, including draft constitutional amendments, but if the past is any guide, there is no guarantee he will follow through. Recently, we have received positive signals from the government regarding support for the Base, working with NGOs, and moving forward on reforms -- particularly those connected to Kyrgyzstan's proposed MCA Threshold Country Plan. Some of your interlocutors will no doubt be focused on internal political developments, but your visit will offer an opportunity to make progress on a number of key bilateral issues. END SUMMARY. UNSETTLED POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT -------------- ¶2. (C) Former Prime Minister Felix Kulov, deeply bitter about being dumped from the "tandem," along with several prominent members of the opposition, began a rally on Bishkek's central Ala-Too Square on April 11. Kulov's United Front and the For Reforms movement vowed to continue the protest until Bakiyev resigned and called early presidential elections. Protest organizers have erected yurts and tents and have provided food (and likely have doled out cash, too),but to this point (mid-day April 13),the turnout has been relatively small (by local demonstration standards),with crowds peaking at no more than 5000. Organizers have promised concerts and entertainment in an effort to bolster the crowds tonight and over the weekend. Some in the opposition have backed down from the demand that Bakiyev resign, and have said that the main goal is constitutional reform. ¶3. (C) The demonstration has remained peaceful, and there has been free access to and from the square. The police have maintained a low-profile presence near the square, but have not interfered with the demonstration. While it would not appear to be in either side's interest to provoke a clash, there is still a risk that a misstep or outside provocation could lead to violence. We expect the next two days to be the key days for the demonstration. COMPROMISES OFFERED -------------- ¶4. (C) In the run-up to the planned demonstrations, President Bakiyev offered a number of compromises and concessions to the opposition. In response to a key demand from civil society, Bakiyev withdrew his earlier veto and signed legislation allowing for the establishment of public television. In March, he replaced the controversial prosecutor general. On March 29, he appointed opposition member Almaz Atambayev as Prime Minister. Although (or perhaps because) Atambayev is strongly anti-Kulov, Atambayev has served as a bridge to some more moderate members of the opposition. A working group headed by Atambayev has drafted constitutional amendments that would strengthen the role of the parliament and reduce some powers of the president. ¶5. (C) While Bakiyev has offered compromises, it is an open BISHKEK 00000413 002.2 OF 004 question whether he will follow through -- especially if the demonstration fizzles. Last November, the threat of public protests pushed Bakiyev into making concessions to the opposition. A compromise on a new constitution effectively ended the week-long street protest. Once the immediate pressure was off, however, Bakiyev undid the compromise with constitutional amendments forced through parliament in late December. The game here is played for short term gain, and with little regard for reaching a deal that will last or for the longer-term consequences. POSITIVE SIGNALS -------------- ¶6. (C) In the past weeks, we have received a number of positive signals from the government, with interlocutors indicating that they realize serious mistakes were made last summer, would like to move past the (mostly base-related) problems of the fall and winter, and want now to improve the bilateral relationship. President Bakiyev, Foreign Minister Karabayev, and Minister of Defense Isakov have assured us of the government's commitment to the continued operation of the Manas Air Base as an important component in the fight against terrorism in Afghanistan. They have also said they want to resolve outstanding base issues, and want speedy resolution of the Ivanov and airplane collision incidents. The Foreign Minister has reached out directly to international NGOs (including many of our assistance program implementers), telling them that their work was important to Kyrgyzstan's development. He has told us he will work with us on bilateral irritants, such as the accreditation issue and the social fund problem. The new Minister of Interior Nogoibayev has presented a way forward on the Surveillance Detection team issue, and the new Minister of Education Osmonaliyev is working constructively with the American University of Central Asia. The Prime Minister, the Foreign Minister, and the head of the government's MCA committee have reiterated their strong interest in moving forward with Kyrgyzstan's threshold country proposal as soon as possible. We think this noticeable change in tone presents an opportunity to move forward on a number of bilateral issues. SUGGESTED POINTS TO MAKE -------------- ¶7. (C) The combination of a renewed interest in positive relations with the U.S. and some new key interlocutors, such as Prime Minister Atambayev and Foreign Minister Karabayev, ensures that there will be great interest in meeting with you. FM Karabayev especially will be interested in how you see the bilateral relationship, how you envision the Comprehensive Policy Dialogue, and how we view Central Asia and our policy toward the region. There is also interest in Afghanistan and developments there. You will likely also need to reassure your interlocutors that Iran issues are on a diplomatic track, and that our use of Manas Air Base is limited to support for Operation Enduring Freedom. This is an issue that is being raised at almost every meeting now. You will have an opportunity to ask about Kyrgyz goals for the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, which Karabayev has told us is his number one priority, and about Kyrgyz relations with the neighbors, including Russia. ¶8. (C) Given the current political uncertainty, your interlocutors will likely be focused on internal political developments. The confrontation -- or possible compromise -- BISHKEK 00000413 003.2 OF 004 will be playing out over your week here. It will be important to repeat to both sides that their actions be non-violent, legal, and constitutional. ¶9. (SBU) In your meetings with government officials, parliamentarians, civil society representatives, and press, you may wish to draw on the following points: Internal Politics: --We urge that all parties work constructively toward constitutional reform. We urge that any amendments be adopted in accordance with procedures established under the constitution, so that any new constitution is seen by all sides as legitimate. --We applaud the President's decision to transform KTR into a public television station and urge that the government rapidly implement the law. --We congratulate the parliament and government on the adoption of a two-tier budget; this is a significant step forward. We urge the government to take steps to improve economic policy and governance, including finalizing tax reform, establishing transparent and comprehensive program budgeting, and improving microfinance sector legislation. --We urge the government to take steps to improve the environment for businesses, investors, and traders, including proceeding with judicial reform to build the trust of businesses and investors, streamlining the permits process, and undertaking customs administration reform. MCA Threshold Program: --We are committed to supporting programs to improve the effectiveness of the judicial system and to fight corruption in law enforcement agencies. Millennium Challenge Account financing is tied to the political will to improve governance. The Kyrgyz government can help generate a positive decision by taking certain steps, including: --Establish a civilian review board for law enforcement matters; --Transfer cases of police misconduct from the MVD to an internal investigations unit; --Make the Financial Intelligence Unit fully functioning; --Actively enforce the laws on money laundering, terrorist finance, and corruption; --Conduct a functional analysis of the judicial system. --The Millennium Challenge Corporation approved the Kyrgyz Threshold Country Plan proposal last year, and the next step is for MCC to approve funding for the proposal. BASE ISSUES -------------- ¶10. (C) Internal political developments and a renewed commitment to the Manas Air Base have combined to push base issues off the front page. However, you can expect that every interlocutor will ask you about the base and urge rapid resolution of the December 6 shooting incident and the airplane collision. The tone will be much more constructive than it was just a short month ago, but these remain serious political and emotional issues here. You need to convey our BISHKEK 00000413 004.2 OF 004 commitment to resolving these incidents as quickly as possible, in a way that we believe is fair and acceptable to both sides. In addition, the issue of contracts for Kyrgyz business with the U.S. military both here and in Afghanistan is likely to come up, as President Bakiyev recently raised it with Senator Dole. More detailed points are in the Key Themes and Points prepared for your trip. YOVANOVITCH