KYRGYZSTAN ON THE EVE OF DEMONSTRATIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 000389 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/10/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL KG SUBJECT: KYRGYZSTAN ON THE EVE OF DEMONSTRATIONS REF: A. BISHKEK 386 ¶B. BISHKEK 384 BISHKEK 00000389 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: For the fourth time in a year, Bishkek is bracing for a mass opposition rally on the central Ala-Too Square. Felix Kulov's United Front, with the support of the For Reforms movement, plans to begin the demonstration on the afternoon of April 11 and continue until President Bakiyev resigns and calls new presidential elections. President Bakiyev addressed the nation April 10, defending the government's record and offering dialogue with the opposition. Bakiyev said that the law allowed for demonstrations, but tough measures would be taken against any law breakers. There were reports that additional law enforcement and special forces personnel were being brought up to Bishkek from the south, under the personal direction of the president's brother, Janesh Bakiyev. Interior Minister Nogoibayev told the Ambassador that the security situation was under control, and that he had prohibited the police from carrying weapons during the rally. ¶2. (SBU) Any movement toward a compromise appeared to hinge on a new constitution. Prime Minister Atambayev's constitutional working group continued work on a draft constitution, and the United Front and For Reforms movements prepared a draft constitutional law nullifying the December constitution and calling for early presidential elections. State Secretary Madumarov said that the parliament could be called into session to consider the working group's draft as soon as April 11. Presidential Chief of Staff Abdyldayev said he was trying to arrange a meeting between the president and opposition leaders. While discussions between government and opposition emissaries will continue into the night, at this point there has been no breakthrough and it appears the mass demonstration will go forward tomorrow. END SUMMARY. DEMONSTRATORS SET -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Following sparsely attended anti-government demonstrations in several (mostly northern) regions of Kyrgyzstan April 9, Felix Kulov's United Front, with the support of the opposition For Reforms movement, is moving ahead with plans for a mass rally in Bishkek April 11. Kulov has said that the rally will continue until President Bakiyev resigns and calls new presidential elections. Flyers with the United Front logo calling for citizens to join the rally have been posted around Bishkek. On April 10, opposition newspapers published a schedule for the demonstration, including rally points around Bishkek from which protesters will march to the central Ala-Too Square, and in the afternoon, people began to set up yurts and tents on the square. Also on April 10, the United Front organized horse games in a nearby village. BAKIYEV OFFERS TALKS, BUT TALKS TOUGH -------------- ¶4. (SBU) President Bakiyev went on television April 10 to defend his government's record and offer negotiations with the opposition. He cited recent positive steps, such as the law on public television and the establishment of a constitutional working group, increases in pensions and salaries, and said that the country was "on the right track." Assessing the current situation, Bakiyev said that some "unhappy politicians" were trying to grab power under the cover of "reforms." Bakiyev acknowledged that the law BISHKEK 00000389 002.2 OF 003 allowed for rallies and demonstrations, but cautioned that the demonstrators had to obey the law, and not disrupt business or interfere with people's daily activities. He promised "strict measures" against any law violators, and he warned rally organizers that they would be held responsible for any disorder. ANOTHER NEW CONSTITUTION? -------------- ¶5. (C) In November 2006, compromise on a new constitution that reduced presidential powers ended a week-long opposition demonstration. In December, the terms of the November constitution were undone when the president pushed through a constitutional law restoring many of his powers. Now, once again, discussion of a compromise between the president and the opposition appears to hinge on a new constitution. Prime Minister Atambayev's constitutional working group, which includes opposition members, continued work on a new draft constitution. Working group member MP Iskhak Masaliyev said there would be no "revolutionary changes" in the draft. State Secretary Madumarov told the Ambassador that Speaker of Parliament Sultanov was prepared to call parliament back into session, possibly as soon as April 11, to consider the draft. ¶6. (SBU) In addition, the United Front has prepared a draft constitutional law that would repeal the December version of the constitution, restore the November constitution, and establish a transitional coalition government that would function until early presidential elections (see Ref A). SECURITY FORCES READY? -------------- ¶7. (C) Ambassador met April 10 with Interior Minister Bolotbek Nogoibayev to urge that the police act with restraint, and that the actions taken by both sides be non-violent, legal, and constitutional. Nogoibayev told the Ambassador that the security situation was under control, and that they would keep the situation quiet. He said that he had "taken away" the firearms from the militia, and that the militia would employ only "peaceful measures" for crowd control. Nogoibayev dismissed rumors that the Interior forces might defect to Kulov, estimating that 80% of the militia were pro-government. Nogoibayev said that the horse games organized near Bishkek by the United Front were a provocation, as the Front planned to use the 200 horses for intimidation purposes. (COMMENT: Horses are hugely important in Kyrgyzstan as a symbol of the country's nomadic past. END COMMENT.) ¶8. (C) Separately, there were reports that pro-Bakiyev elements had brought in additional forces from the south as a precaution in the event that police from the northern regions defected to the opposition. Kulov claimed that the government had been busing in pro-Bakiyev supporters for several days and putting them up at private hotels and hospitals. United Front's Omurbek Suvanaliyev told the local UNHCR Rep that the president's brother, Janysh Bakiyev, was setting up a "Praetorian Guard," bringing in several hundred special forces from the south to protect the president. (NOTE: There were similar reports during the November demonstrations that Janysh was in charge of special security details. Janysh served as the deputy chairman of the National Security Service, and was dismissed in September 2006 following the "matryoshkagate" affair. END NOTE.) On April 10, there was a noticeable increase in traffic police out in Bishkek, stopping motorists and checking documents. BISHKEK 00000389 003.2 OF 003 COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) From the president's perspective, Kulov and the United Front are only interested in power, and "reform" is just a cover. From the opposition's perspective, Bakiyev, if left in power, will renege on any compromise once the pressure is off, as he did in December. This is not a situation in which finding a lasting compromise -- a lasting agreement -- will be easy. Several on both sides have suggested that it might take low-profile, outside mediation to overcome the lack of trust. The OSCE head, Ambassador Mueller, has said that the OSCE is willing to play a role, if asked. While discussions between government and opposition emissaries will continue into the night, at this point there has been no breakthrough, and it appears the mass demonstration will go forward tomorrow. YOVANOVITCH