KYRGYZ OPPOSITION: PRESIDENT MUST TALK TO US

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000376 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/05/2017 TAGS: TAGS SUBJECT: KYRGYZ OPPOSITION: PRESIDENT MUST TALK TO US DIRECTLY BISHKEK 00000376 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: DCM Lee Litzenberger, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: In separate meetings April 5, opposition MPs Omurbek Tekebayev and Omurbek Babanov stressed that President Bakiyev's direct involvement in public negotiations was necessary to resolve the current political standoff. Tekebayev believed that a compromise could be reached only after the demonstrations -- scheduled to start April 9 in the regions and April 11 in Bishkek -- took place, while Babonov felt that a compromise was still possible ahead of the demonstrations. Both believed that constitutional reform and limiting the powers of the president were the necessary steps to reaching a "compromise." END SUMMARY. TEKEBAYEV: COMPROMISE POSSIBLE -- ON OUR TERMS -------------- - ¶2. (C) In an April 5 meeting with Ambassador, opposition MP Omurbek Tekebayev said that public negotiations with President Bakiyev are key to finding a resolution to the current political crisis -- but only after the April 9 and 11 demonstrations take place. Once these occur, and the president willingly agrees to reduce his powers, the constitutional reform process can continue and possible pre-term parliamentary elections could be held, according to Tekebayev. Tekebayev, however, had no clear plan how all this would take place. He then seemed to contradict himself by offering that parliament could continue its work until the next election (the parliament's term runs to 2010), suggesting instead that a new government might be formed by May. ¶3. (C) Tekebayev warned that the situation could get out of hand if not controlled properly. He said that everything depends on Bakiyev, and it is up to the president to make his position known to the people. Thus far, however, the president is not willing to meet publicly or reach a compromise with the opposition. Tekebayev was confident that Felix Kulov's United Front easily would be able to gather thousands of demonstrators, given the opposition movement's financial resources. When asked where the funds were coming from, the MP appeared unsure, but added that the United Front does have support in other regions of the country -- including the South. BABANOV: AN AUTHORITATIVE CONSTITUTION NEEDED FIRST -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) In a separate meeting April 5 with Poloff, self-proclaimed pro-Atambayev MP Omurbek Babanov said that a strong constitution needed to be in place first before the country could resolve the current political crisis. Babanov said he had been offered the first deputy prime minister post, but he would not leave his seat in parliament to join the government before a "solid" constitution was adopted. Babanov added that it would take time to create such an important document. ¶5. (C) Babaonv believed that a compromise between the president and the opposition was possible ahead of the mid-April demonstrations, but he stressed the importance of Bakiyev's direct role in any negotiations with the opposition. Babanov said that the president -- like his new PM -- seems willing to talk about political and social reforms, but needs to make his views known publicly. PM Atambayev has signaled his willingness to meet with opposition forces, said Babanov, but "we're still waiting for Bakiyev." Babanov added that the country is, once again, facing many risks -- including the possibility of civil war -- should the president, government, and parliament not address the issues that could tear the country apart. Noting BISHKEK 00000376 002.2 OF 002 that the south remains "separate" from the rest of Kyrgyzstan, Babanov said that northern regions -- "from Naryn to Talas" -- also should not be forgotten by Kyrgyzstan's leaders. ¶6. (C) Babanov said that he met earlier in the day with the demonstrators who had gathered in front of parliament, in support of the United Front's hunger strike, and was "heartened" by hearing the "real demands" of the people there. (NOTE: The United Front's "hunger strike" began in front of the parliament building April 5. The United Front claimed that over 100 supporters would participate. At least five of the demonstrators have reportedly said they were willing to light themselves on fire to protest "Bakiyev's unwillingness to implement constitutional reforms." END NOTE.) COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) It seems that both sides remain in deadlock. Although some within the opposition may be focusing their demands more on constitutional reform, while others -- Kulov -- are pushing for pre-term presidential elections, both groups are calling on President Bakiyev to step in to avert a confrontation. It is conceivable that a compromise could be reached before next week's demonstrations -- but only if President Bakiyev agrees to discuss all issues openly with the opposition, including the possibility of early presidential elections. YOVANOVITCH