KYRGYZ ELECTIONS: PARLIAMENT OPENS WHILE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 001525 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN (GEHRENBECK) E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2017 TAGS: PGOV KDEM SOCI PINR KG SUBJECT: KYRGYZ ELECTIONS: PARLIAMENT OPENS WHILE OPPOSITION PONDERS NEXT STEPS BISHKEK 00001525 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: With Central Election Commission election results showing opposition party Ata Meken not passing the 0.5% vote threshold in Osh city, the pro-presidential Ak Jol party collected 71 out of 90 seats in the new Kyrgyz parliament. The Social Democrats and Communists, which polled suspiciously well in the last 101 of 2,235 precincts, just surpassed vote threshold requirements to sweep up the remaining 19 seats. Protest actions, some under the "I Don't Believe" banner, have begun in Bishkek with hunger strikes also taking place in Bishkek, Osh and Kemin. The new parliament convened briefly on December 21 and is expected on December 24 to begin deliberating on a new speaker, with State Secretary Madumarov and Constitutional Court Chair Bayekova leading the field. With President Bakiyev aiming for a new government by year's end, attention also shifts to possible prospects for the prime ministerial post: Energy Minister Chudinov, Bishkek Mayor Usenov, Presidential Chief of Staff Sadyrkulov and Acting Prime Minister Aidaraliyev. While Presidnent Bakiyev's administration and parliament begin looking forward, Ata Meken backers are looking to the courts and potentially protests to signal their continued challenge to the election results. End Summary. Three Parties in Parliament -------------- ¶2. (C) On December 20, the Central Election Commission (CEC) announced results of the December 16 Kyrgyz parliamentary elections with news that the pro-presidential Ak Jol party received 71 seats, the Social Democrats (SDPK) gained 11 seats and the Communists secured 8 seats out of a total of ¶90. The main opposition party, Ata Meken, failed to gain seats, ostensibly the CEC explained, because Ata Meken, which exceeded the 5% nationwide threshold, failed to breach the 0.5% threshold in Osh city. NDI representative Scott Kearin (Amcit, please protect) told Embassy December 20 that local NGO Taza Shailoo planned to bring about 80 Osh city precinct protocols to Bishkek December 21 that reportedly prove Ata Meken passed the 0.5% Osh city threshold. (Comment: It strains credulity that Ata Meken did not receive at least 650 votes in Osh city; Ata Meken and NGOs claim they received 3,000. End comment.) ¶3. (SBU) Interestingly, data from the last 101 of the 2,235 precinct election commissions (PEC) to report added sufficient numbers of votes to the SDPK and Communist party totals to surpass the 5% national barrier. The Communists did really well in the last 101 precincts, adding 67,204 votes to the 73,830 votes they garnered in the other 2,134 precincts. The CEC, dismissing opposition complaints of irregularities in the vote count, rapidly issued new parliamentary identifications in time for the December 21 meeting of parliament. Minor Protest Actions -------------- ¶4. (C) An Interior Ministry official confided to Embassy December 20 that protest actions against the election results in Osh, Bishkek and elsewhere will force police personnel to remain on "high alert for a long time." About 20 protestors, assembling under the "I Don,t Believe" banner were detained December 17 in Bishkek, forced to sign confessions that they violated a city code concerning rallies and ordered to attend December 21 court hearings. A group of 31 people (including some detained December 17),including two journalists, were detained December 20. Court proceedings resulted in jail sentences of 5-7 days for 11 protestors, with five others obliged to pay minor fines. Other cases are pending. Some opposition politicians have been taking food to the detained BISHKEK 00001525 002.2 OF 002 protestors. Additional Ata Meken supporters in Bishkek, Osh and Kemin have started hunger strikes. Parliament Convenes -------------- ¶5. (C) The new parliament convened briefly on December 21 and vowed to formulate parliamentary factions, elect a speaker, and nominate a prime ministerial candidate no later than December 28. Embassy interlocutors December 20 speculated that State Secretary Madumarov, Constitutional Court Chair Bayekova or re-elected MP Kurmanov might become speaker. MP Kubanychbek Isabekov has suggested that Ak Jol co-leader Elmira Ibraimova would head the Ak Jol faction in parliament, and said that prime ministerial nominations would be delayed until parliamentary structures are finalized. With the new party structure, some MPs and outside observers are now questioning how efficiently party discipline among the majority Ak Jol camp will be maintained. MP Kurmanov told Embassy December 20 that if the "big bosses" become too persistent in their views, then he will "leave." Parliament will reconvene December 24. Prospects for a New Prime Minister -------------- ¶6. (C) While parliament gets settled, attention is now focusing again on prime ministerial hopefuls: Energy Minister Chudinov, Bishkek Mayor Usenov, Presidential Chief of Staff Sadyrkulov and Acting Prime Minister Aidaraliyev as well as darkhouse prospects like former MP Kubanychbek Isabekov and State Property Fund Chair Turdumambetov. Chudinov, an ethnic Russian with no clan loyalties but strong influence in the energy and industry sector and reported ties to the Bakiyev family, has long been rumored to be a top candidate for the position. Usenov, who was only recently installed as Bishkek's mayor, may have too many opponents at senior levels to move up to the prime ministerial slot; the same may be true for Sadyrkulov. Aidaraliyev, brought to his current position to aid in the elections, may, like many other recent occupants of the post, have already fulfilled his purpose. A decision may come shortly as President Bakiyev has expressed his interest in having a government formed by year's end. Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) The Kyrgyz White House and other senior government officials are moving forward with their plans for the new parliament. However, Ata Meken, some NGO's and possibly other political parties may have other plans. Ata Meken leaders have stated they seek to utilize the courts to challenge the election results, but it is not clear what their ultimate aim is; Ata Meken leaders have also said they would not accept their mandates since the elections are flawed. Ata Meken leader Tekebayev's announcement December 21 that he has "joined" the "I Don't Believe" movement could signal a second front in opposition activism against the election results. While we have not seen any developments that signal trouble on the horizon, particularly given the snow and cold gripping the country, Tekebayev has called for opposition supporters to don red ribbons December 24. Post will continue to monitor developments. YOVANOVITCH