KYRGYZ ELECTIONS: PRELIMINARY RESULTS SHOW AK JOL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 001505 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/17/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KG SUBJECT: KYRGYZ ELECTIONS: PRELIMINARY RESULTS SHOW AK JOL LANDSLIDE; NUMEROUS VIOLATIONS REPORTED REF: A. BIHSKEK 1504 ¶B. BISHKEK 1486 BISHKEK 00001505 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Kyrgyzstan's Central Election Commission (CEC) announced preliminary results showing that the pro-presidential Ak Jol party received enough votes to pass the nationwide and regional thresholds in the December 16 parliamentary elections. The opposition Ata Meken passed the nationwide threshold, but failed to cross the regional threshold in three regions of the country. The nationwide threshold is 5% of registered voters, or approximately 135,000 votes; the regional threshold is 0.5% of registered voters, or approximately 13,500 votes in each of seven oblasts and the cities of Bishkek and Osh. However, the Supreme Court is scheduled to hear a case December 18 challenging the regional threshold, which leaves the final "results" in question. In addition, there are credible reports that the White House is now negotiating with the opposition Ata Meken and Social Democratic parties, which may also affect "the results." ¶2. (SBU) The voting was marked by widespread and credible reports of fraud, manipulation, intimidation of independent observers, and problems with the voter lists. The OSCE/ODIHR Election Observation Mission concluded that the election process failed to meet international standards, citing numerous problems with the performance of the CEC and the conduct of polling. Kyrgyz political parties and domestic observers listed numerous violations, and Embassy observers also witnessed serious violations and vote fraud. Not surprisingly, Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) observers immediately pronounced the elections free, fair, and transparent. END SUMMARY. CEC Announces Preliminary Results -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The CEC announced that with 95% of the precincts reporting in the December 16 parliamentary elections, the pro-presidential Ak Jol party was leading with 1,260,810 votes, or over 48% of registered voters nationwide. In second place was the opposition Ata Meken party, which polled 224,590 votes, or approximately 8.7% of registered voters. The Social Democratic Party's vote total represented 4.3% of registered voters, while the Party of Communists was in fourth place with 2.9% of registered voters. (Note: We presume that the CEC is reporting percentages in terms of registered voters because the thresholds are calculated based on the nationwide register of voters. Ak Jol has received over 67% of the votes tabulated. End Note.) The CEC claimed that the turnout was an improbably high 83%. ¶4. (SBU) The CEC announced that Ak Jol had passed both the nationwide 5% threshold, as well as the 0.5% regional threshold. Ata Meken had passed the nationwide threshold, but failed to pass the regional threshold in at least three districts, the CEC reported. None of the other ten parties running had crossed either threshold. The CEC expects to announce final totals on December 18. Court Challenge Pending -------------- ¶5. (C) The Kyrgyz Supreme Court is scheduled to hear an appeal December 18 on the CEC's interpretation that the 0.5% regional threshold be calculated from the national list of registered voters. The Ak Jol party brought the initial legal challenge to the threshold, but on November 30 a Bishkek District Court upheld the CEC's interpretation. Ak Jol later appealed the decision, possibly because it was BISHKEK 00001505 002.2 OF 002 concerned that it might not pass the threshold in sparsely populated Talas oblast, or possibly because the administration wanted the option to cancel the regional threshold if it decided to let other parties into parliament. As of last week, the administration was considering abolishing the regional threshold (Ref B). Observers Note Serious Violations -------------- ¶6. (C) Domestic and international observers reported widespread violations during the voting and counting processes. The OSCE/ODIHR Election Observation Mission issued a critical statement of preliminary findings, noting that the Kyrgyz Republic failed to meet a number of OSCE commitments, and there had been "backsliding in the elections process." Domestic observers reported abuses of the early voting process, ballot stuffing, intimidation of independent observers, and problems with the voter list. Apparently reporting from a parallel universe, observation missions from the CIS and SCO pronounced the elections free, fair, and transparent. ¶7. (C) The Embassy fielded 14 teams throughout the country to observe the elections. Embassy observers noted many of the same violations reported by the independent observers, including problems with the voter lists. We talked to many voters who were told they could not vote because their names did not appear on the election day voter list; many of these people had voted in the October referendum and had received invitations to vote in these elections (meaning that their names had been on the voter lists recently). Over 1000 people in Bishkek appealed to the courts to be added to the voter list on election day, many waiting up to 4 hours for a court decision. An incident we witnessed in one precinct could serve as a metaphor for free elections in Kyrgyzstan: after the ballots had been dumped on the table, local apparatchiks turned out the lights. (Note: When the lights came back on, embassy observers saw what appeared to be a pile of additional ballots on the table. At this particular precinct, domestic monitors had counted 370 to 378 voters during the day; the final official count showed 1330 votes cast. End Note.) Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) Kyrgyzstan's parliamentary elections are far from over. Asaba party leader Beknazarov complained publicly that Ata Meken and the Social Democrats were negotiating with the White House to make a deal on the 0.5% threshold. Kyrgyzstan's Supreme Court is not an independent actor, and the outcome of the challenge to the regional threshold will be determined by just how far the administration wants to go in letting the opposition participate. The extent to which the resulting "deal" does or does not disenfranchise large numbers of voters will likely be critical to the country's political stability over the next several months. YOVANOVITCH