KYRGYZ ELECTIONS: IT'S NOT JUST THE VOTES CAST;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 001504 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/14/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KG SUBJECT: KYRGYZ ELECTIONS: IT'S NOT JUST THE VOTES CAST; IT'S HOW THEY'RE COUNTED REF: A. BISHKEK 1486 ¶B. BISHKEK 1478 ¶C. BISHKEK 1441 ¶D. BISHKEK 1424 ¶E. BISHKEK 1419 ¶F. BISHKEK 1402 BISHKEK 00001504 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Kyrgyzstan's parliamentary elections won't be decided entirely by the votes cast on December 16. The heavy use of administrative resources virtually assures that President Bakiyev's Ak Jol party will take the vast majority of the seats, and a disproportionate regional threshold makes a one-party parliament a real possibility. Assuming that the vote will be manipulated, some parties are reportedly negotiating with the administration for seats in the new parliament. At this late date, the administration is still considering whether to cancel the regional threshold requirement; a challenge to the threshold was referred to the Supreme Court on December 14. A number of voices have urged moderation on the part of the administration, pointing out the dangers of excluding opposition parties from parliament. In the end, it will be a small circle around the president that makes the decisions affecting the results of this election. END SUMMARY. Twelve Parties to Compete . . . -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The voting in Kyrgyzstan's pre-term parliamentary elections will take place December 16. Twelve parties are on the ballot, competing for 90 seats to be elected on a proportional basis by party list. The electoral code makes provisions for women, national minorities, and youth on the party lists; no more that 70% of candidates on a party's list can be of the same gender, with no more than three in a row of the same gender. (Note: The previous parliament had no women. End note.) The electoral code also sets high thresholds: 5% of registered voters nationally (not votes cast) and 0.5% in each of the seven oblasts and in the cities of Bishkek and Osh. Under a decision of the Central Election Commission, the 0.5% threshold is calculated on the national voters list, meaning that the threshold is approximately 13,500 votes in each region. Over 600 international monitors, including an Election Observation Mission from OSCE/ODIHR, have been accredited, and several thousand 
domestic monitors will cover nearly 2300 polling stations. Under Kyrgyz law, the new parliament must be seated by December 21. But Only Ak Jol Seems Assured a Place -------------- ¶3. (C) Throughout the three-week campaign period, administrative resources have been used to support President Bakiyev's Ak Jol party, while at the same time the government has restricted other parties' access to media, limited their right to hold rallies, and interfered with their ability to get their message to voters. The unique regional threshold, which requires a party to get approximately 13,500 votes in each region, presents an absolute barrier to most of the parties running. Even for parties that may do well nationally, such as the Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan (SDPK) or the opposition Ata Meken party, it will be difficult to overcome the threshold in the less-populated oblasts (Talas has 120,000 registered voters; Naryn has 143,000) or in remote Batken oblast, where the Ak Jol party is reportedly very strong. Will Others Get In? -------------- BISHKEK 00001504 002.2 OF 002 ¶4. (C) Faced with high barriers and prospects for a manipulated vote, some parties are reportedly negotiating with the administration for seats in the new parliament, while others are also threatening trouble if their parties don't make it. Ata Meken leader Tekebayev told the Ambassador that there could be demonstrations if the vote is falsified to keep Ata Meken out. SDPK leader, former Prime Minister Atambayev, told the Ambassador that if there was a "big falsification" of the election, people would react. Atambayev said the only agreement he had made with the president was not to steal the SDPK's votes, but stated he wasn't sure what the outcome would be, as the administration was still deciding what level of "falsification the opposition would swallow." Tekebayev and others also have noted that the adminstration hasn't decided the final outcome. More Than Counting Ballots -------------- ¶5. (C) That there is talk at this late date of canceling the regional threshold -- perhaps even after the voting -- shows that for this election, it's not simply a matter of counting the ballots once the polls close. CEC Chair Kabilova told the Ambassador that she expected 4 or 5 parties to get into parliament -- despite the regional threshold making this nearly impossible. Kabilova also said that the election would not be over until the official protocols are signed, which would likely be 3 or 4 days after the voting. (Note: This would also give the Supreme Court time to strike down the threshold, if necessary. End note.) Comment: Who Will Decide? -------------- ¶6. (C) December 15 is officially a quiet day, with no campaigning in the 24 hours before the polls open, but there still could be additional surprises. At this point, it is not clear whether the administration will push for a one-party parliament or exercise restraint. A number of commentators and advisors have pointed out the risks of a one-party parliament, but others are saying that the president's family is pushing for a total Ak Jol victory regardless. Atambayev cautioned that Sadyrkulov was no longer in charge of the campaign in the regions; Bakiyev's brothers, who are not known for their polish, were running things there. Another source, who met recently with Maxim Bakiyev, the president's son, said that Maxim sees himself as a "grand political strategist," who sees nothing wrong with a total victory. In the end, it will likely be this small circle around the president that makes the decisions regarding which parties get a seat in the new parliament. ¶7. (C) The bargaining going on is one indicator that even rigged elections will not put a stop to politics in Kyrgyzstan. The president's advisors are not particularly altruistic; they are worried about the instability that might result if they shut the opposition out completely. As flawed as these elections have been, and even as more power seems to be concentrated in the administration, it is still unlikely that President Bakiyev and his circle will be able to assert complete control over either the new parliament or the political process. YOVANOVITCH