OUSTED PRIME MINISTER COMMENTS ON KYRGYZ ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 001419 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM KG SUBJECT: OUSTED PRIME MINISTER COMMENTS ON KYRGYZ ELECTIONS REF: A. BISHKEK 1401 ¶B. BISHKEK 1402 BISHKEK 00001419 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: CDA Lee Litzenberger, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Former Prime Minister Almaz Atambayev told Charge November 30 that President Bakiyev, by using state resources to support the pro-presidential Ak Jol party in the parliamentary election campaign, was repeating the mistakes of former President Akayev in the 2005 elections. Atambayev, who was fired by Bakiyev on November 28 (Ref A),said that if the result was a one-party parliament, there would be a "second revolution." Atambayev said that Bakiyev was a "nice person," but he was being manipulated by sons and other advisors and did not understand the potential consequences of his actions. Atambayev, who appeared exhausted, said he would first rest, and then participate in the campaign on behalf of his Social Democratic Party. He said Bakiyev had offered him other governmental positions, but he would not consider any offer until after the December 16 elections. END SUMMARY. Repeating Akayev's Mistakes -------------- ¶2. (C) Former Prime Minister Almaz Atambayev met with Charge at the embassy November 30 to discuss his recent firing by President Bakiyev (Ref A),as well as the parliamentary election campaign (Ref B). Atambayev said he had warned the president repeatedly that by using state resources and authorizing violations in favor of his Ak Jol party, Bakiyev was committing the same mistakes former President Akayev made during the 2005 parliamentary elections. (Note: Fraudulent parliamentary elections in February 2005 contributed significantly to Akayev's ouster in the "tulip revolution" of March 2005. End note.) Atambayev said that Bakiyev did not realize the potential negative consequences of his actions, including alienating parts of the country. For example, Bakiyev had alienated many ethnic Uzbeks, Atambayev claimed, by disqualifying on doubtful technical grounds the largely ethnic-Uzbek Rodina party from the elections. By pushing to give Ak Jol total control of parliament now, Bakiyev was cutting his chances for re-election in 2010. Bakiyev Being Manipulated -------------- ¶3. (C) Atambayev said repeatedly that Bakiyev was a "nice person," and that his personal relationship with the president was good. The problem, he said, was that he only had access to Bakiyev once a week; others saw him five times a day. Bakiyev was weak, lacked goals, and his abilities were better suited to being a mayor of a small town. This left Bakiyev a "marionette" to the manipulations of his sons, Marat and Maxim, and other advisors. Atambayev said that Bakiyev's sons wanted to create "another Turkmenistan" or follow the model of Kazakhstan or Russia, but this was not possible here because Kyrgyzstan was a "democratic country," and its democracy did not depend on the upcoming election -- it was in the nature of its people. Atambayev said that the sons did not realize they were digging their father's political grave. Atambayev also speculated that Russian political advisors in the White House were deliberately giving Bakiyev bad advice because Putin (and others) wanted to see Bakiyev replaced. Fixed Election Could Bring "Second Revolution" -------------- - ¶4. (C) Atambayev said if the December 16 elections resulted in a one-party (Ak Jol) parliament, then there would be a "second revolution," maybe not in December, but possibly by spring. Atambayev said a revolution would be inevitable if his Social Democratic party got fewer than 25 seats and the BISHKEK 00001419 002.2 OF 002 pro-opposition Ata Meken party was shut out of the 90-member parliament. Atambayev feared that a rigged election could result in "violence and bloodshed." He said that Bakiyev had alienated many ethnic Uzbeks by barring the Rodina party from the elections, and Asked about rumors of a demonstration planned for December 16 on Bishkek's Ala-Too Square, Atambayev lamented that the government was creating the conditions for confrontation and the "radical opposition" was preparing for it. He said that he would only observe such a demonstration from a distance, but he did not think he could stop his party's "rank and file" from participating. Atambayev added that major issues "cannot be decided on the square," and he was ready to play "peacemaker" once again. Atambayev's Plans -------------- ¶5. (C) Atambayev was proud of his role in preventing a "war" by becoming prime minister last March. He noted other successes during his tenure, including the new agreement on the Kumtor gold concession, which he claimed would net the government an additional $1.5 billion. He thought inflation would remain steady for the near term, and he had pushed with the National Bank for a stronger som to help fight inflation. He also was pleased about the good cooperation with USAID on development projects. ¶6. (C) Atambayev said that he would take some rest, and then he would participate in the campaign on behalf of his Social Democratic Party. Atambayev added that some party members were glad that he had been fired from the government, as now they could speak freely. He said that if the Social Democrats got 25 to 30 seats in the new parliament, they would act as a "constructive opposition." ¶7. (C) Asked about the timing of his dismissal, Atambayev said that Bakiyev had been "forced" to fire him. He claimed that a recent public opinion poll had shown him to be more popular than Bakiyev even in the south (though the results had been falsified when the poll was published),and he thought his dismissal might actually boost his standing -- "people here like victims." He said that Bakiyev had offered him other positions in the government, including state secretary and ambassador to Turkey, but he would not make a SIPDIS decision until after the elections. On His Successor -------------- ¶8. (C) Of new Acting Prime Minister Iskender Aidaraliyev, Atambayev said he was a "weak person," but "decent and not a thief." He said that he had tried to bring Aidaraliyev in as first deputy prime minister four months ago. Atambayev said that he had spoken to Aidaraliyev about the good cooperation he had enjoyed with USAID, and that the cooperation would continue. Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) Atambayev was exhausted. He acknowledged that many colleagues from the government had called on him yesterday, with drinks lasting late into the night, and he was clearly still recovering this afternoon. Atambayev sees himself continuing to play an important role, whether as "constructive opposition," or as a peacemaker. Whatever his role, Atambayev reiterated several times that he wanted to support democracy in Kyrgyzstan. LITZENBERGER