KYRGYZ PRESIDENT OUSTS PM ATAMBAYEV AHEAD OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 001401 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN (GEHRENBECK) E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/2017 TAGS: PGOV KDEM SOCI KG SUBJECT: KYRGYZ PRESIDENT OUSTS PM ATAMBAYEV AHEAD OF PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS BISHKEK 00001401 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Lee Litzenberger for Reasons 1.4 (b) a nd (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: On November 28, Kyrgyz President Bakiyev dismissed Acting Prime Minister Almazbek Atambayev. The post will likely remain vacant until after the December 16 parliamentary elections. The move came the day after Jalalabad oblast governor Iskender Aidaraliyev's appointment as first vice prime minister. Aidaraliyev will manage the cabinet until after the elections, when many observers speculate that Bakiyev's Chief of Staff Sadyrkulov or Minister of Energy Chudinov could be selected for the prime ministerial post. In other personnel shuffles, Bakiyev dismissed Osh Oblast governor Jantoro Satybaldiyev, replacing him with a presidential administration staffer. Bakiyev also replaced Minister of Education Osmonaliyev with the more politically loyal former minister, Ishengul Boljurova. The timing of these personnel moves reinforces concerns that Bakiyev is removing obstacles to the use of administrative resources, in violation of the election code, to support his Ak Jol party during the campaign. End Summary. Time for a Vacancy in the Prime Minister's Office -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev dismissed Acting Prime Minister Almazbek Atambayev November 28 with a suggestion that Atambayev "rest" after having "completed" his work. As his dismissal comes three days after the final registration of party lists for the December 16 parliamentary elections, Atambayev will not be eligible to stand as a candidate in the elections. Atambayev departed office with gracious words for Bakiyev, but in recent days he had warned publicly about the dangers to the country of using administrative resources and vote falsifications to achieve a one-party parliament. Edil Baisalov, General Secretary of Atambayev's Social Democratic Party (SDP),put a more positive spin on the dismissal by stating that Atambayev would remain a "nationwide leader." ¶3. (SBU) Atambayev's dismissal comes one day after President Bakiyev appointed Jalalabad Governor Iskenderbek Aidaraliyev acting first vice prime minister -) a position which oversees economic portfolios and which had been vacant for nearly six months. Aidaraliyev will lead the cabinet until a new government is formed following the December 16 parliamentary elections. Possible contenders for the post-elections prime ministerial slot include Bakiyev's Chief of Staff Medet Sadyrkulov; Minister of Energy, Industry and Fuel Resources Igor Chudinov; State Property Fund director Almazbek Imanaliyev; and former parliamentarian and pro-Bakiyev Ak Jol party list candidate Askar Salymbekov. Shuffling Governors -------------- ¶4. (C) Within hours of his promotion, Aidaraliyev called Osh Governor Jantoro Satybaldiyev to a televised meeting where he fired Satybaldiyev, and announced presidential administration staffer Aaly Karashev as the new governor. A shocked Satybaldiyev denied alleged improprieties, leaked earlier in the day, in the resale of cement and slate stockpiles. Satybaldiyev had been a prominent member of the political opposition prior to his appointment as governor. Following his appointment, though publicly quiet, Satybaldiyev remained critical of Bakiyev in private conversations and was a valued Embassy contact. Meanwhile, President Bakiyev appointed Koshbai Masirov, a previously lower-profile official as the new Jalalabad governor. (Note: Osh and Jalalabad oblasts represent Bakiyev's political base. End note.) Educating the Youth (to Vote for Ak Jol?) BISHKEK 00001401 002.2 OF 002 -------------- ¶5. (C) President Bakiyev also dismissed Acting Minister of Education and Science Kanybek Osmonaliyev November 27. Osmonaliyev, a respected technocract, has been replaced by Ishenkul Bolzhurova, a former minister noted for her political loyalty. With the November 26 launch of election campaigning and the pro-Bakiyev Ak Jol's courting of the youth vote, Bolzhurova's appointment could result in increased pressure on voting-age students to rally for Ak Jol candidates. Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) The timing of Atambayev's dismissal and other personnel changes is clearly tied to the December 16 parliamentary elections. If Atambayev had thought that his public loyalty to Bakiyev would be repaid with re-appointment as prime minister, he was mistaken. Atambayev risked his position in the government when he warned about the dangers of a one-party parliament. Bakiyev could have kept Atambayev in his post through the elections, but has decided Atambayev is expendable. Atambayev, who lost significant support among his co-oppositionists when he accepted the prime ministerial post earlier this year, may find himself and his SDP isolated from both Bakiyev's backers and the opposition, although there is traditional sympathy for political martyrs, and Atambayev is now free to voice his criticism of Bakiyev. The timing of Bakiyev's other personnel moves can be seen as removing potential obstacles to the use of administrative resources to support his Ak Jol party in the campaign, in violation of the election code. The timing, after party lists were officially registered and could not be changed, ensures that none of those fired can run for parliament. End Comment. LITZENBERGER