KYRGYZ PRESIDENT SETS REFERENDUM ON NEW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 001170 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/19/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL KG SUBJECT: KYRGYZ PRESIDENT SETS REFERENDUM ON NEW CONSTITUTION FOR OCTOBER 21 REF: A. BISHKEK 1158 ¶B. BISHKEK 1137 BISHKEK 00001170 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: In a nationwide address September 19, Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev announced a national referendum for October 21 on two questions: a new version of the constitution, and a new election code. Bakiyev said that under his constitutional draft, the parliament would be elected entirely by party lists. The changes to the election code would enable elections by party list. Bakiyev also said that the role of "akims" (appointed heads of district administrations) would be increased as the "president's representatives in the regions." Bakiyev announced that he intended to create his own political party. Bakiyev's draft constitution has yet to be made public, and with only a month until the referendum, there will be little opportunity to analyze the proposed changes and educate the public. We expect that parliament will be dissolved shortly after the referendum. End Summary. Referendum in October -------------- ¶2. (SBU) In a September 19 address to the cabinet and parliament broadcast live on national television, President Bakiyev announced that he had signed a decree to hold a referendum on October 21. The referendum will cover two questions: a new version of the constitution, and changes to the election code. Bakiyev claimed he had been forced to take this dramatic step because the Constitutional Court's September 14 ruling invalidating the current constitution (reftels) had brought constitutional reform to a "dead end." He said that the constitution had become the victim of a struggle between different political forces, but he pledged that his draft would take into account the ideas put forward by previous constitutional working groups. ¶3. (SBU) Bakiyev said that his draft constitution would provide for the parliament to be elected on a proportional basis by party lists. Bakiyev claimed that the current single-mandate system exacerbated tensions in the country, and that the current "MP-businessmen" were not accountable to anyone. Because he did not think that the current parliament would pass changes to the election code to enable party-list elections, Bakiyev said it was necessary to include those changes to the election code as a second question in the referendum. ¶4. (SBU) Bakiyev gave few details about his proposed draft, and he did not say when the draft would be made public. He did say that the role of the parliament and local councils (currently elected) would be increased, but he also said that the role of the "akims" (presidentially appointed heads of district administrations) would be strengthened, better to serve as the "president's representatives" in the regions. Parliamentary Elections to Follow? -------------- ¶5. (C) In his address, Bakiyev sharply criticized the current parliament and certain members for blocking important legislation. He also attacked the current political parties for "not taking responsibility" for developments in the country. Therefore, Bakiyev said, he had decided to create a new political party to help him carry out the country's development strategy. Some parliamentarians and other commentators have told us they expect the parliament to be dissolved shortly after the referendum, and Bakiyev is confident that his new party (either alone or in coalition with other pro-presidential parties) can gain a majority in the new parliament. BISHKEK 00001170 002.2 OF 002 Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) To this point, Bakiyev appears to be managing the "political show" to his advantage: his power over parliament has increased following the return to the 2003 constitution, a referendum date has been set for his new constitution, and his opponents likely will have little time to organize if there are new parliamentary elections. As Bakiyev's draft constitution has yet to be made public, and with only a month until the referendum, there will be little opportunity to analyze the proposed changes and educate the public. However, politics never proceeds in a straight path here, and we expect there will be a number of additional surprises this fall. YOVANOVITCH