SWISS ELECTION YEAR -- WILL POLARIZATION AND

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BERN 000144 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV SZ SUBJECT: SWISS ELECTION YEAR -- WILL POLARIZATION AND CELEBRITY POLITICIANS ERODE THE STATUS QUO? -------------- Summary -------------- 1.(U) Summary: Switzerland kicked off a busy election year on February 11, as the first of six scheduled cantonal elections was held in advance of the October 21 federal elections. Those predicting little change in the current party balance were vindicated as polling in Basel-Land witnessed a failed gambit by a Left-Green alliance to break out of their minority status. Three questions about the future of Swiss politics will be answered in the coming eight months: -- Which of the two large ascendant parties, the right- populist Swiss Peoples Party (SVP) or the left-wing Social Democratic Party (SP),will edge out the other for predominance? -- Which of the two diminishing centrist parties, the Free Democrats (FDP) or Christian Peoples Party (CVP), will assume third place, and claim a second seat on the Federal Council? -- Will the Greens usurp traditional socialist and moderate-environmentalist support to become a significant player at the federal level? 2.(U) At this point, the survival of the "magic formula" four-party consensus government appears the likely outcome. However, a shift away from traditional party loyalties and towards the profiling of celebrity politicians (like Federal Councilors Christoph Blocher, Micheline Calmy-Rey, and Doris Leuthard) may lead to the demise of staQ, consensual politics -- though probably not yet. End summary. -------------- Left Overreaches in Basel-Land -------------- 3.(U) Over the past weekend, voters in the canton of Basel-Land (separate from Basel City) dashed earlier pollster prediction of a SP and Green victory. Instead, both the governing coalition and parliament remained in center-right hands. Only one incumbent SP Minister was reelected alongside two FDP incumbents, while voters returned the two open seats to the CVP and SVP, as they were held before. In the 90-seat cantonal parliament, the SP even lost three seats to its Green allies, while the FDP and SVP gained one seat each. 4.(U) Damaging the Socialists-Greens was its decision to run four candidates for the five cabinet seats. As occurred when the SVP reached too far in the 2006 Bern cantonal elections, the SP/Greens dispersed its vote among too many candidates. This fact, and the loss of SP seats to the Greens, may play in both party's considerations as they look to upcoming elections in Vaud and Appenzel (March 11),Ticino and Luzerne (April 1),and Zurich (April 15). On the right, the SVP and FDP also need to decide whether they are stronger in alliance or on their own. -------------- -------------- Rising of the Wings: SP on the Left; SVP on the Right -------------- -------------- 5.(U) Recent elections have seen political support flow toward the two flanks of the political spectrum, and both the SVP and the SP expect this trend to continue. As the two parties are neck-and-neck right now (27 vs. 26 percent of the popular vote),the only question is which will have bragging rights as the top vote winner. 6.(U) The right-populist SVP is boldly forecasting an additional hundred thousand supporter on its side. While moderate gains are expected in the Swiss-German part of the country, the SVP is primarily looking to the French speaking cantons for its largest gains, reinforcing its spectacular gains during the 2006 local elections. Using the goat as a symbol for its 2007 campaign trail, the party and its charismatic leader Justice Minister Christoph Blocher are touting the alternative vision they offer as against the Left, whose victory would bring "economic decline, more taxes, public debt, crime and misappropriated social benefits." The party has picked up support in the wake of its high-profile campaigns to tighten immigration and asylum laws and hold-back EU integration, but the party is divided economically between its business- BERN 00000144 002 OF 003 oriented urban faction and protectionist rural base. 7.(U) The SP has the objective to become the largest party in Switzerland, with a plurality of both the Federal Council and Parliament. The SP relies heavily on the popularity of Foreign Minister Micheline Calmy- Rey, currently encumbering the rotating presidency of the Swiss Confederation. Her aura in the media should boost the chances of her party. However, her close association with the European Union (the SP favors eventual Swiss membership) is a wildcard in this election year, as she his forced to react to criticism from EU officials targeting Swiss taxation policy and demanding greater cohesion fund contributions to new member states Romania and Bulgaria. Energy is another contentious issue for the party as Energy Minister and SP stalwart Moritz Leuenberger faces the ideological no-win options of renewing Switzerland's older nuclear facilities or switching to fossil-fuel plants. -------------- Race for Third Place: FDP or CVP? -------------- 8.(U) The 2003 elections brought the worst result in a hundred years to the Free Democrats and the Christian Peoples Party, with each party losing seven seats in the Lower House of Parliament. The CVP's meager 14 percent result finally forced it to cede its second cabinet seat to the ascendant SVP. 9.(U) For the FDP, a turnaround in the 2007 elections will be crucial if it is to retain its two Federal Councilors, Pascal Couchepin (Social Affairs) and Hans- Rudolf Merz (Finance). Pressure continues to mount on the shoulders of the countryQs centrist and pro- business party the Free Democrats (FDP). The FDP's loss has been attributed to the failure of the managing elite to run the country effectively and the missteps it committed over the proposed increase ofQhe retirement age from 65 to 67. Post-Enron corporate scandals in Switzerland, including the 2001 grounding of the former Swiss national airline Swissair, are still vivid in the populationQs memory. 10.(U) The CVP was also tarred by the various corporate scandals. Its political defeat in 2003 and subsequent loss of a second federal council seat triggered the replacement of CVP Justice Minister Ruth Metzler by SVP Christoph Blocher. After a leadership shakeup, the CVP appears to be bouncing back under the stewardship of the young and dynamic Economics Minster Doris Leuthard, who has become a media icon in her own right. Appealing to the party's social activist wing, Leuthard has contrasted the large bonuses handed out to top corporate managers with the meager wage increases for most employees as endangering the social environment. Latest opinion polls show unemployment as a primary concern for Swiss voters despite the expected economic recovery (2.7 percent in 2006, 1.8 in 2007) and the countryQs low three percent unemployment rate. If elections go well this time, the CVP is on track to claim its second cabinet seat back, perhaps at the expense of a declining FDP. -------------- Greens: Not There Yet -------------- 11.(U) The Green outsiders will be carefully watched as the alliance with the SP increasingly comes under strain. With the media focus on climate change, every Swiss party portrays itself as a friend of the environment. The SP leadership recently infuriated the Greens with the claim that "anyone who supports environment votes socialist." Green flirtation with left-fringe parties in the French speaking part of Switzerland also has led observers to wonder about the future of the SP-Green alliance. In Vaud, one of the larger cantons, this rivalry blossomed after local greens opted for a go-it-alone strategy, thus dividing the left against a united right in its March cantonal elections. At the national level, the Greens no longer see themselves as a sidekick for the SP. Some of the Green leadersQ even hint at having their own Federal Council seat in the near future. However, despite Green success at the local and cantonal level, where high profile figures have been elected, Green parliamentarians at the federal level still fail to differentiate themselves from the SPQs anti-capitalist rhetoric. BERN 00000144 003 OF 003 -------------- Background: A Swiss Political Primer -------------- 12.(U) Switzerland has a bicameral federal legislature modeled in 1848 after the American. The Council of State (upper house) is composed of two members from each of the 20 full cantons (states),one from each of the six half cantons, to equal 46 seats. The National Council is comprised of 200 seats, distributed proportionally by population. Unlike the U.S. system, the executive is embodied not in an individual, but in a seven-member Federal Council (cabinet) with a rotating presidency assuming mostly ceremonial functions. Under a 1959 agreement referred to as the "magic formula," the four major parties -- FDP, CVP, SP and SVP -- agreed to divvy up the seven Federal Council seats, with the three larger parties retain two seats each, the fourth party one. 13.(U) The results of the 2003 general election gave the SVP about 27 percent of the lower house seats and the SP slightly less at 26 percent. The historically predominant FDP fell to 20 percent and the CVP plummeted to 14 percent. In the upper house, the two traditional centrist parties retained much of their historic strength, each retaining roughly a third of the seats, with the SVP and SP splitting the remainder. Parliament generally meets in three-week sessions, four times per year. -------------- Comment -------------- 14.(U) Switzerland's consensus cabinet and militia parliament has translated into remarkable stability over the past 50 years. Few expect significant changes in the coming elections. This applies as well to most Swiss policies, including foreign policies of interest to the United States. Following the 2007 elections, there are likely to be only marginal adjustments in the Switzerland's global profile, though we can hope to see modest progress on free trade and law enforcement cooperation. 15.(U) In the long term, polarization toward the left and right wings, the decline of the centrist parties, the rise of the Greens, the decrease in lifelong party loyalties, and the trend toward personality-based politics, could undermine the viability of the "magic formula" consensus government and ultimately result in a more conventional coalition/opposition governing structure. However, barring a major political upheaval, such a shift is unlikely this year. Coneway