SVP GOES INTO OPPOSITION: SWISS POLITICS ENTERS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BERN 001137 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/AGS (Y.SAINT-ANDRE) E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/13/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL SZ SUBJECT: SVP GOES INTO OPPOSITION: SWISS POLITICS ENTERS UNCHARTED WATERS REF: BERN 1132 Classified By: Poloff Chris Buck; reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Eveline Widmer-Schlumpf announced her decision early the morning of December 13 to accept her election by the Parliament to the Federal Council (reftel). Following Widmer-Schlumpf's announcement, the SVP leadership made good on its threat to take the SVP into the parliamentary opposition if Blocher were not re-elected to the Federal Council. In an impassioned speech, Blocher emphasized that he would remain active in Swiss politics, saying "you can vote someone out of the government, but not out of politics." Although not yet decided, it is widely expected that Widmer-Schlumpf will assume the Justice portfolio from outoing Minister Blocher. The SVP's decision to go into the parliamentary opposition takes Swiss politics into uncharted waters. We will continue to press our broad and important bilateral agenda with the Swiss government, building on accomplishments to date, and mindful of the need to stand clear of Swiss domestic political debates as we advance USG interests. End Summary. -------------- Widmer-Schlumpf Accepts Election Result -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Eveline Widmer-Schlumpf announced her decision early the morning of December 13 to accept her election by the Parliament to the Federal Council (reftel). The announcement of her decision ended rampant speculation about the future composition of the Federal Council, following the stunning failure of Swiss People's Party (SVP) heavyweight Christoph Blocher to regain his seat in the December 12 election. That surprising defeat occurred when the Social Democrats (SP), Greens, and Christian Democrats (CVP) voted for an alternate SVP candidate (Widmer-Schlumpf),rather than for Blocher - the party's candidate. -------------- SVP Goes into Opposition -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Following Widmer-Schlumpf's announcement, the SVP leadership made good on its threat to take the SVP into the parliamentary opposition if Blocher were not re-elected to the Federal Council. SVP Caucus President Caspar Baader announced that Widmer-Schlumpf was henceforth excluded from the SVP caucus. Defense Minsiter Schmid, another SVP party member who was re-elected to the Federal Council on December 12, and who subsequently took the oath of office the same day (following Blochers defeat),also was declared by the SVP leadership to be no longer welcome in the SVP caucus. ¶4. (SBU) In an impassioned speech, Blocher said that he was both "outraged" and "somewhat relieved" by the outcome: "outraged" by the way in which he had been deprived of a seat on the Federal Council, contrary to the Swiss political tradition of "Concordance", according to which the major parties typically work to accomodate each other in terms of representation on the Federal Council; and "somewhat relieved", because in the opposition he finally would be able to "say what he is thinking", unbound by the Federal Council's tradition of "collegiality." Vowing to use referenda and all the tools of parliamentary opposition to advance SVP policy interests, Blocher's emphasized that he would remain active in Swiss politics, saying "you can vote someone out of the government, but not out of politics." ¶5. (SBU) What "parliamentary opposition" will mean for the unity of the SVP is an open question. There are reports that some SVP caucus members from Bern and Graubuenden -- cantons where the SVP membership is considered more moderate -- are talking about establishing their own separate caucus within the Parliament, in support of Schmid and Widmer-Schlumpf. The SVP caucus leadership reportedly has given all SVP caucus members until tomorrow night to provide a written confirmation that they support the decision to take the SVP into parliamentary opposition. -------------- Future Federal Council Portfolio Distribution -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Widmer-Schlumpf's taking of the oath of office this morning completed the re-constitution of the new Federal Council. Although not yet decided, it is widely expected that Widmer-Schlumpf will assume the Justice portfolio from outoing Minister Blocher, since the other Federal Councilors were re-elected and generally are thought to be content with BERN 00001137 002 OF 002 their current portfolios. The Federal Council is expected to decide on the portfolio distribution on December 14, or the week of December 17 at the latest. Following confirmation of the distribution of portfolios, Widmer-Schlumpf would be expected to take up her new duties on January 1. -------------- Comment: Uncharted Waters for Swiss Politics -------------- ¶7. (C) The SVP's decision to go into the parliamentary opposition takes Swiss politics into uncharted waters -- Switzerland has never had such an opposition party since the current political system was established in 1848. The SVP will take some time to adjust to its new opposition role, but the fact that Switzerland's most vocal and powerful single political force remains outside of the government will put the system of grand coalition politics under serious strain. If unable to halt government initiatives in the Parliament, the SVP will be ready to take their opposition straight to the electorate by means of popular initiatives and referenda, which could grow considerably in number. Issues such as Switzerland's freedom of movement agreement with the EU, which comes up for review in 2009, and which the SVP opposes, can be expected to be targets of such SVP campaigns. The SVP has the most effective political machine, and the necessary deep pockets to mount ferocious political campaigns, and the bitterness and acrimony that marred this autumn's federal elections are likely to become more commonplace. ¶8. (C) Former CVP President and current UBS advisor Adelbert Durrer (protect) told post that the election result has generated widespread worry among the Swiss business community, which expects the center-left government to shift tax, investment, and social policies in directions unfavorable to the Swiss economy. This contact also believes that we will see increased anti-American sentiment coming from the Swiss political left, which is feeling empowered by having driven Blocher's SVP from the government. Whether this in fact will be the case remains to be seen. We will continue to press our broad and important bilateral agenda with the Swiss government, building on accomplishments to date, and mindful of the need to stand clear of Swiss domestic political debates as we advance USG interests. Post will continue to report further developments in the Parliament and Federal Council as they become known. -------------- -------------- Biographic Information on Eveline Widmer-Schlumpf -------------- -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Personal information: Name: Eveline Widmer-Schlumpf Job Title: Cantonal Finance and Defense Minister in Graubuenden (since 1999) Political Party: SVP (Swiss People,s Party) Birth date: March 16, 1956 Marital status: Married with kids Professional background: Eveline Widmer-Schlumpf is the daughter of former SVP Federal Councilor Leon Schlumpf (Minister of the Federal Department of Energy and Transportation from 1979-1987). After completing her high school in Chur in 1976, she studied Law at Zurich University, completing her degree in 1981 and a PhD in 1990. She worked as a lawyer from 1987-98. She was president of the District court of Trins from 1991-1997. Political career: She was elected to the Graubuenden Cantonal Parliament and served there from 1994-98. She subsequently was the first woman to be elected to serve in the Graubuenden cantonal government. She was twice President of the cantonal government in 2001 and 2005, and has served as President of the Cantonal Conference of Finance Ministers since 2001. Political character: She reportedly is known for an engaging style that attracts broad political support, even from her opponents. This quality reportedly has helped her in her efforts to reach consensus and pass unpopular bills, such as the 2003 cantonal budget reduction. As Cantonal Finance Minister, she is credited with bringing Graubuenden's finances back from deficits. CONEWAY