SNAPSHOT OF GERMAN ECONOMY ? RECOVERY IN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 BERLIN 000884 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/AGS LABOR FOR ILAB E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EFIN ELAB PREL GM SUBJECT: SNAPSHOT OF GERMAN ECONOMY ? RECOVERY IN FULL SWING ¶1. Summary: The German economy is expected to grow 2.4% in 2007 according to the spring consensus forecast of Germany?s six leading economic institutes. After half a decade of below-average economic performance, Germany has finally caught up with the general growth trend in the Euro zone, overcoming its ?sick man? image. The recovery is no longer a purely export-led phenomenon as improved domestic consumption and investment have increased the domestic component of overall growth to two thirds. This positive development has gone hand- in-hand with a larger than expected fall in unemployment and the largest creation of new ?regular? jobs subject to social security contributions since 2000. In the first months of 2007, unemployment fell below 4 million or 9%, a full 2 percentage points below levels seen a year ago. However, economic institutes caution the positive trend is almost entirely due to cyclical factors and that the German structural problems have yet to be fully addressed. They warn against relenting on efforts for reform and make the point adjustment costs are more readily accepted in a positive economic environment than during a downturn. Public finances in particular need to be reformed further to remove continued structural imbalances. End summary. CONSUMPTION PICKKING UP AFTER YEARS OF STAGNATION ¶2. Private consumption, the main area of concern for many years on the domestic side of the economy, finally picked up speed in 2006. Since real wages stagnated in 2006, the 0.8% increase in private household consumption was mainly attributable to rising non-wage capital income derived from portfolio investment. Advance purchases of consumer durables ahead of the January 2007 VAT rise also contributed to the increase. The savings rate also decreased slightly, reflecting improved consumer optimism about the economy. Despite slightly lower levels of consumption in first quarter 2007 due to the ?advance purchase effect? ahead of the VAT increase, consumption is expected to improve by 0.9%, in line with a 0.9% increase in disposable household income in 2007, and by 1.4% in 2008. The rise in consumption has been a surprise to the German economists who had expected a deep once the higher VAT rate went into effect. Trade unions are negotiating higher wage increases for their members, which could also stimulate domestic consumption. CAPITAL INVESTMENT GROWS AS PRODUCTION EXPANDS ¶3. Capital investment grew 7.3% in 2006, the largest increase since the boom year 2000. A positive business climate, tax incentives, favorable financing opportunities, and high levels of capacity utilization are expected to sustain this trend into 2008 at an average annual increase of 6.2%. As further proof of economic improvement, companies cited expansion of capacity, rather than labor restructuring or increased efficiency, as the main reasons for increased capital investment in a recent poll. In addition, corporate tax reform, which is set to come into effect in 2008, will provide further incentives to reinvest profits. CORPORATE TAX REFORM TO IMPROVE GERMAN COMPETITIVENESS ¶4. The corporate tax reform bill, currently before Parliament, would lower tax rates by almost ten percentage points while also closing existing loopholes. The current tax rate for corporations of 38.6% will fall to 29.8%. The bulk of the savings will come though culling the corporate tax rate, from 25% to 15% (the remaining balance consists of the communal business tax). The phase-out of many tax write- offs will particularly affect companies that in BERLIN 00000884 002 OF 004 the past were able to offset their profits with losses, which significantly reduced the tax-base. It also includes controversial elements like the taxation of the relocation of production facilities out of Germany. This proposal has triggered criticism from industry and Federal Economics Minister Michael Glos (CSU). Given the benefits to larger corporations as a result of the tax reform, Glos would like more to be done for small and medium size companies. At the same time, Federal Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck (SPD) -- who expects a net revenue loss of about 5 billion Euro as a result of the reform -- is under attack from the left wing in his own party who view the 5 billion loss as a give-away to big business at a time of high profits. The reform would bring Germany's tax rate closer to that of other big EU countries, although it would still be higher than the rates in some of the new EU member states. Most experts agree however, that more companies will pay their taxes in Germany as a result of the reform. Steinbrueck expects the revenue loss of the first two years following the implementation to be more than off-set by the higher number of companies paying taxes beginning in 2010. DECADE-LONG SLUMP OF CONSTRUCTION SECTOR FINALLY ENDS ¶5. This year, the German construction industry made its first significant contribution to economic growth since 1994. While increases in private construction were largely due to imminent changes in taxation and allowances, business investors clearly based their decisions on the improved economic climate. Private investment is expected to grow more slowly in 2007, despite new tax incentives to make homes more energy efficient. However, it is forecasted to pick up speed again in 2008 when higher disposable household incomes are expected to increase demand for new housing. Construction sector growth is crucial for reducing unemployment among low- skilled workers. SUBSTANTIAL FALL IN UNEMPLOYMENT EXCEEDS EXPECTATIONS ¶6. With the improving economic climate, unemployment has fallen at surprising speed. In 2006, unemployment decreased by 597,000 over the course of the year. Average unemployment in 2006 was 4,487,000, about 374,000 fewer than in 2005. The average unemployment rate for 2006 dropped 0.9 percentage points to 10.8 percent. The growing economy is expected to see unemployment figures drop by another 700,000 this year and 270,000 in 2008 to below the 3.5 million mark, reducing the average unemployment rate to 8.7% this year and to 8.0% in 2008. Nevertheless, the problem of long-term unemployed unable to find jobs is highlighted by their proportional increase among the total of unemployed. Although there were 257,000 fewer long-term unemployed in March 2007 compared to the same month a year before, their relative weight increased from 39.8% to 41%. This trend is likely to lead to slower reduction in unemployment even as the economy continues to improve. WAGES RISING SLOWLY AS EXPERTS CAUTION RESTRAINT ¶7. Wages increased by only 1.1% in 2006, despite an improved economic environment, partly due to the relatively few collective bargaining agreements up for renewal last year. However, after years of wage moderation, unions and workers are now demanding their share in the economic upswing. The powerful Metal and Electronics Workers? Union, IG Metall, is calling for a wage increase of 6.5 percent for its 3.4 million members in this year?s collective bargaining round, which started in early March. The employers? association Gesamtmetall, however, BERLIN 00000884 003 OF 004 has countered with an offer of only 2.5 percent, plus a 0.5 percent lump-sum payment for the year. IG Metall has begun to stage warning strikes and the two sides will likely narrow their differences. Unions and employers in the chemical sector, which also enjoyed healthy profits last year, quietly hammered out a deal giving 550,000 employees a 3.6 percent pay hike plus a lump-sum payment of 0.7 percent of their annual salary. In the construction industry, employers and unions agreed on a 3.5 percent wage increase covering nearly 700,000 workers starting May 1. Economic experts caution against any increases that go beyond 2.5% to 3.0%, arguing these would undo the achievements in wage competitiveness of recent years and are likely to lead to job cuts in the future. They recommend lump sum payments to account for the cyclical upswing rather than wage increases across the board. Unions counter that cost-of-living hikes like the VAT hike are not lump-sum increases. On average, wages are expected to rise 2.0% this year and by a further 2.8% in 2008, when wage agreements of public sector employees run out. TRADE CONTINUES TO GROW RAPIDLY ¶8. Germany?s exports in 2006 grew a remarkable 12.5%, almost attaining the benchmark record rates of 2000 (13.5%). Trade with the new EU member states grew particularly strongly, and East Asia and Russia were the fastest growing markets for German exports outside of the E.U. For 2007 export growth is expected to slow down in the first half year, due to statistical reasons and lower orders in late 2006, and to pick up again in the second half of the year. Export growth is expected to be 8.4% in 2007 and 8.1% in 2008. A further boost is expected to come from the increased competitiveness of exports due to the reduction of social security contributions which were introduced in tandem with a 3 percentage point VAT increase at the beginning of the year (exports are not subject to VAT; as a result, relative unit labor costs have decreased). Imports rose sharply as well; at 11.1%, the rate surpassed that of the record year 2000 (10.5%). Improved domestic consumption after an initial drop due to the VAT increase at the beginning of 2007 is expected to drive a rise in imports by 7.5% in 2007 and 8.4% in 2008. PUBLIC FINANCES IMPROVE AS STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS REMAIN ¶9. Public finances improved markedly in 2006 due to continued moderation in expenditures, lower spending on unemployment and social costs, and an unusual increase in revenue by 7.5%. The budget deficit decreased from 73 billion to around 40 billion Euros. The corresponding deficit ratio fell from 3.2% to 1.7%, well within the limits set by the EU on government spending (Maastricht criteria). The trend is expected to continue this year as the deficit is projected at 13.2 billion or 0.6% of GDP. The six institutes are cautiously optimistic as additional revenue and reduced spending are the result of cyclical improvements while many of the structural problems of the economy have yet to be addressed. They are very critical of the high level of consumption spending and decreasing state investment which fell from 1.9% in 1999 to 1.3% ¶2005. They draw attention to research and development as well as education as the focus for more spending, especially since the spending target of 3% of GDP imposed by the EU-Lisbon Agenda has not yet been achieved. The institutes demand a further cut in social security contributions and eventually in the level of income tax. Although the balanced budget which may be realized in 2008 is an improvement, they say that a surplus which would allow for greater spending during an economic downturn should be the government?s objective. BERLIN 00000884 004 OF 004 KOENIG