MDA DIRECTOR OBERING PROMOTES MISSILE DEFENSE IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L BERLIN 000604 SIPDIS SIPDIS DOD FOR MDA NANCY MORGEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/22/2017 TAGS: MARR MASS NATO PREL GM SUBJECT: MDA DIRECTOR OBERING PROMOTES MISSILE DEFENSE IN GERMANY REF: BERLIN 576 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires John M. Koenig for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Lt. General Henry A. Obering, Director of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency, visited Berlin on March 15 to provide briefings and answer questions about U.S. missile defense (MD) plans from the German press, think-tank analysts, high-ranking government officials, and members of the German Parliament (Bundestag). While the audience reaction at each of the presentations was positive, a continuing effort is required to convince policy elites and the skeptical German public of the need for MD in Europe. Lt. General Obering stressed the following themes during his visit: A) The Iranian ICBM, IRBM, SRBM threat is real, growing, and may be non-deterable; B) The European site will defend against longer-range threats and can complement NATO,s Missile Defense efforts; C) The Missile Defense Agency has completed numerous flight tests proving the MD technology works, and; D) The U.S. has and will continue to engage with Russia and we will continue to be transparent within NATO and the NRC in our efforts. End summary. Meetings with a Skeptical Press -------------- ¶2. (U) Lt. General Obering gave two TV interviews, held a press roundtable with approximately 20 journalists, and answered questions from the Bundestag press corps. Questions focused on the risks of dividing Europe and NATO, provoking Russia, and the danger of debris falling over Germany, including radioactive debris. Lt. General Obering stressed that consultations at NATO and with the Russians had been ongoing for over a year, and would continue until "our allies understand how the system works" and accept that it would complement NATO efforts. Briefs for Opinion Multipliers -------------- ¶3. (C) At a well attended briefing with think tank analysts and Bundestag staff experts, Lt. General Obering provided a 15 minute briefing on the technical specifications and ramifications of the proposed MD sites in Poland and the Czech Republic. The main concerns expressed in follow-on questions related to the system's capability to intercept Russian missiles, and whether the interceptor missiles would be in compliance with the INF treaty. Lt. General Obering stated that the system under consideration could not be used to defend against an attack from Russia, and the Russians are aware of this fact. He also stated that the INF treaty covers offensive missiles, and reiterated that the MD system is strictly defensive in nature. While attendees seemed interested in the notion of an integrated long, medium and short range missile defense system, one participant (Karl-Heinz Kamp from the CDU-affiliated Adenauer Foundation) acknowledged that European defense budgets would be hard-pressed to allocate funds for such a system. Addressing the need for MD in Europe, Lt. Gen. Obering pointed out that a portion of offensive ballistic missiles fall far short of their intended targets, and there would be a real possibility that an Iranian nuclear missile aimed at the U.S. could inadvertently land in Europe if there were no MD system in place. NATO, Russia, SDI Aspects Discussed at MFA -------------- ¶4. (C) Lt. Gen. Obering next held a briefing with Foreign Office State Secretary Reinhard Silberberg, Political Director Michael Schaefer, Security Policy Commissioner Eberhard Pohl and Special Arms Control Advisor Ruediger Luediking. Silberberg said he was interested in learning more about negotiations with Russia and how we could bring them into the process. Obering explained the where, when and how of the various briefings that have occurred with Russian officials, and said the U.S. remains open to Russian involvement on MD matters broadly, emphasizing this is important to "avoid division within Europe and between Europe and Russia." Lt. Gen. Obering also stated that the current U.S./Poland/Czech Republic project could be incorporated into a comprehensive NATO MD capability, and that the U.S. supports continued consultations with NATO partners on this issue. He added, however, that the U.S., Poland, and the Czech Republic would not be seeking NATO approval to move forward. ¶5. (C) Silberberg emphasized that Russian threats against Poland and the Czech Republic were completely unacceptable, but said that Russia wants to be taken seriously as a major power and that likely 80 percent of the debate with Russia is about Russian psychology and not about the facts of MD. Nevertheless, Silberberg expressed the view that NATO allies need to make sure that Cold War ghosts are not resurrected. Lt. General Obering reiterated U.S. interest in doing everything it can to engage the Russians, even expressing support for radar data sharing. He said Germany was well placed to assist in engaging the Russians and asked for their support -- a request which was met with a moment of silence. ¶6. (C) Schaefer next brought up two frequently heard German concerns: that BMD is the first step toward a space-based arms race, and that debris from destroyed missiles could land on Europe. Lt. General Obering responded that, whereas in the past the U.S. nuclear deterrent was sufficient when dealing with rational actors, today the West is confronted with the "nation-state equivalent of a suicide bomber." Lt. General Obering emphasized that the threat posed by falling particles of a destroyed ballistic missile paled in comparison with what would happen if a nuclear warhead were to detonate over a large city. He added that by destroying the incoming weapons in space, most of the material would be pulverized instantaneously and much of the rest would burn up during reentry through the atmosphere. Bundestag Leaders Politically Unsure -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Lt. Gen. Obering then met with leading members of the Bundestag Defense and Foreign Relations Committees, including Deputy Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Hans-Ulrich Klose (SPD),Deputy Defense Committee Chairman Walter Kolbow (SPD),Alexander Bonde (Greens),Werner Hoyer (FDP Foreign Affairs Spokesman),Paul Schaefer (Left Party), and Karl-Georg Wellmann (CDU). ¶8. (C) During the meeting, Lt. General Obering was able to demonstrate that the system is effective against the kinds of potential threats posed by the DPRK and Iran; it can protect European populations as well as stationed forces; there is no threat to Russia; the system can be integrated with NATO missile defense programs (though the US will retain command and control); and it deserves Germany's support. Klose brought up the political awkwardness of the locations in Poland (especially) and the Czech Republic. He explained that Poland does not completely trust NATO to provide security, and that this bilateral deal with the U.S. can be politically used by Poland against NATO and Germany. Lt. General Obering explained that the choice of locations was based on clear operational requirements. Bonde asked whether it is technically possible to completely destroy a missile as he was concerned about the threat to Germany by debris. Despite the clear and detailed response provided by Lt. General Obering, Bonde released a press statement shortly after the meeting stating that he remained unconvinced. Other questions related to radar positioning in the Caucusus, whether the MD deployment might be an incentive for Iran to produce even more weapons, and what more could be done to allay both NATO and Russian concerns. At the conclusion of the meeting, Kolbow stated that there was no German decision on missile defense yet, that German politicians continue to hold differing perceptions, and the road ahead could be a challenging one for the grand coalition government. He stated that we should work to convince the Russians, and that we should "keep the Poles within the framework of NATO." MOD Urges More NATO and Russian Involvement -------------- ¶9. (C) At the MoD, State Secretary Dr. Peter Eickenboom brought up the relationship between the proposed U.S. MD system in Poland and the Czech Republic and the system under discussion at NATO since the 2002 Prague Summit. He appreciated Lt. General Obering's comment that the U.S. initiative could be linked to NATO and treated as a "contribution" to an overall NATO concept. Eikenboom emphasized that, in his view, this needs to be a priority at the June NATO Defense Ministers meeting. He explained that Germany is participating in missile defense activities as agreed in the Prague Summit, within NATO, and mentioned MEADS, Patriot, a Navy missile project with the U.S., and other efforts for close range protection of deployed forces. Eikenboom emphasized that these are non-controversial efforts to counter short or medium range threats, and they all enjoy the support of the Bundestag. But, in the case of the U.S. MD effort with Poland and the Czech Republic, the topic has to do with long-range and ICBM protection and was not conceived in the multilateral NATO context. Discussions now occurring in Germany are linked to the intermediate range missile program in the 1980's, and pointed out that that heated domestic debate contributed to a change in government at that time. He asserted that the German public is not presently prepared to support MD, especially if it is viewed as jeopardizing existing arms control agreements or antagonizing Russia. ¶10. (C) Eickenboom said the German government position is that comprehensive discussions on missile defense at NATO have yet to take place, and that they want to discuss this in-depth at NATO. He thought the argument for the system should emphasize that it is intended to protect the United States and Europe from missiles launched by Iran and North Korea, and we have to make a special effort to communicate this to Russia. He also explained that had a decision been reached in NATO, much of the intra-European squabbling could have been avoided. Chancellery Shies Away From Offering Support -------------- ¶11. (C) In his final meeting of the day, Lt. Gen. Obering met with Dr. Christoph Heusgen, National Security Advisor at the Chancellery and Rolf Nikel, his Deputy. Both expressed appreciation for the briefing, as Lt. Gen. Obering had been able to confirm their positive notions and address their lingering concerns about the proposed system. Privately, Nikel told Lt Gen Obering that he spoke to members of the Bundestag, and that support for the European Site is growing with greater understanding of U.S. plans. Furthermore, Nikel said that there is a lot of misinformation that exists and he was pleased that Lt. Gen Obering clearly and concisely addressed the common themes/areas of concern in Europe (debris, threat, Russia reactions). ¶12. (C) Given the positive response by the Chancellery's top security advisers, DCM Koenig took Nikel aside afterwards and asked whether the Chancellery would be willing to say something positive about the system when asked by journalists. Nikel declined to do so, saying "we are not there yet." More discussion is required on the subject to harmonize positions within the grand coalition. In addition, Nikel observed that Chancellor Merkel wants to avoid a media uproar over MD as she prepares to host a successful EU summit next week in Berlin to mark the 50th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome. Comment -------------- ¶13. (C) Lt. General Obering's visit helped advance the debate within Germany on Missile Defense. Media coverage (including by several journalists who attended his briefing) has become more balanced -- and in several instances more critical of politicians such as SPD Chairman Beck who have tried to take a populist approach to opposing U.S. MD plans. There are still many critical voices, especially on the left; however they are no longer repeating the baseless Russian objections to MD, and instead are focused on the substance: the Iranian threat and how Germany and NATO should respond. We are not out of the woods by any means, but the evolving discussion presents a more favorable climate for addressing and resolving many of the expressed concerns. U/S of Defense Edelman's visit March 28-29 will provide another excellent opportunity to keep shifting German thinking on MD. ¶14. (U) This cable has been cleared with the Missile Defense Agency. KOENIG