GERMANY'S VIEWS ON DEMOCRACY IN VENEZUELA

C O N F I D E N T I A L BERLIN 002116 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/26/2017 TAGS: PGOV PHUM WHA EU VE GM SUBJECT: GERMANY'S VIEWS ON DEMOCRACY IN VENEZUELA REF: A. STATE 154674 ¶B. STATE 157219 Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Jeff Rathke for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) PolOff delivered reftel points on November 16 to Betina Kern, Deputy Head of the Andean Region Division at the German Foreign Ministry. With respect to the substance of USG concerns about proposed constitutional changes in Venezuela, Kern said that Germany "feels exactly the same way." However, according to Kern, Germany's economic interests in Venezuela are very different from those of the USG, and indeed from those of other EU member states (notably, those of Italy, Spain, France, and Portugal). She said that Germany's primary interest there is in "keeping up democracy and regional security." In contrast to USG efforts, Kern said, Germany will continue with "quiet diplomacy" in Venezuela. She questioned the value of high-profile statements condemning Chavez. "What's the point of such statements?" Kern asked. She argued that the most effective way to undercut Chavez's power would be for the U.S. to scale back the amount of oil it purchases from Venezuela. Only 0.6% of Germany's oil imports come from Venezuela, Kern said, adding that Germany's leverage in delivering high-profile statements against Chavez is minimal. That said, Kern noted that Germany used EU Presidency earlier in 2007 to present an EU declaration opposing Chavez's closure of Radio Caracas Television. (Comment: The economic argument about Chavez's power, that his concentration of power is due in large part to U.S. oil revenues, is one that the MFA has used before to partially explain Germany's views on the relative value of speaking out against Chavez. Post continues to reach out to the German government, including parliamentarians, Chancellery contacts, and other interlocuteurs to emphasize USG goals to promote democracy in Venezuela. Post will submit septel a response to reftel B, which outlines these efforts.) ¶2. (C) On the growing dissent within Chavez's party, Kern noted that although opposition exists, "it is not enough." She opined that, despite the former Minister of Defense's recent comments against Chavez (the strongest sign of dissent, in Kern's estimation),there is "probably no strong dissent in the military" and the existing opposition is split and cannot mobilize itself. TIMKEN JR